农业土地系统研究及其关键科学问题

如何科学合理利用土地是实现人类可持续发展的关键。随着人类对土地利用问题愈发关注,在"土地利用/土地覆盖变化"、"全球土地计划"等国际科学研究计划的推动下,"土地系统科学"的学科体系逐步形成,农业土地系统研究成为土地系统科学的热点方向之一。本文以全球土地计划与土地系统科学为指引,旨在明晰"农业土地系统"的概念,系统梳理农业土地系统研究的技术方法、内容对象以及关键科学问题,为进一步丰富和完善土地系统科学学科体系,推动全球变化、粮食安全及农业可持续研究提供参考。研究认为:第一,多维度格局探测与分析是农业土地系统研究的重要基础:农业土地系统不仅关注耕地与其他土地利用类型之间的相互转换特征、规律和过程,而且更为关注耕地内部多熟种植制度、农作物空间格局、利用集约度、综合生产能力等结构和功能的多维变化,因此,需要依靠多学科/数据的交汇、融合等手段来揭示农业土地系统的复杂特征;第二,多模型耦合的过程与机制解析是农业土地系统研究的核心内容:在明晰农业土地系统时空格局特征的基础上,通过建立土地系统格局与其影响因素之间的关系,并将这种关系在时间维度进行扩展,进而实现农业土地系统变化过程和机制的动态表达,目前,土地变化模型的建模手段已从传统单一的地理模型或经济模型研究转向模型耦合研究,以反映农业土地系统中"人类-环境"的复杂关系;第三,多内容的综合效应评估与调控是农业土地系统研究的关键任务:农业土地系统与全球变化、粮食安全及农业可持续发展等问题密切关联,农业土地系统时空格局探测、过程机制解析的最终目的在于通过协调农业土地系统与农业资源、环境和生态的相互关系,考虑不同系统之间的权衡优化关系,追求土地利用的最佳社会、经济和生态综合效益,以建立人地和谐、可持续的农业土地利用模式。解决农业土地系统研究的这些关键科学问题,将有力促进自然科学和社会科学的融合,推动土地系统科学及相关研究领域的发展。

基于物质流分析的农业土地利用系统氮素效应分析——以湖南省桃江县为例

为系统分析和评价农业土地利用环境效应,了解农业系统中物质循环规律,提高物质利用效率,本文采用物质流分析方法,通过构建区域尺度农业土地利用系统的物质流分析框架和评价指标体系,以湖南省桃江县为案例区,综合评价了该区域农业土地利用系统中氮素利用效率及环境健康状况。结果表明:(1)1980—2013年,桃江县农业土地利用系统生产输入氮素量和环境输入氮素量显著增加,2013年比1980年分别增加了1.2倍和0.4倍;其中,生产输入方式是桃江县氮素输入总量的主要来源,占2013年总输入量的77%。(2)1980—2013年,桃江县氮素输出总量逐年波动增长,而产品输出氮素量却增加不多,但环境输出氮素量比1980年增长了1.4倍。(3)与此同时,桃江县农业土地利用系统氮肥投入强度逐年增长,至2013年其值达到328.4 kg·hm^(-2),超过了警戒值(250.0 kg·hm^(-2));此外,桃江县氮素物质利用效率逐年降低,物质生产效率还处于较低水平,还需进一步采取措施,调整农业结构,提高农产品附加值。(4)1980—2010年桃江县农业土地利用系统生态稳定性和环境健康质量逐年恶化,然而,在2010—2013年桃江县的环境健康质量有所好转,其氮素养分负荷由2010年的208.8 kg·hm^(-2)回落至2013年的154.1 kg·hm^(-2)。

农作物空间格局变化模拟模型的MATLAB实现及应用

Agent模型是研究农业土地系统复杂性与动态性的有效工具。在农作物空间格局变化模拟模型(CroPaDy,an agent-based model for simulating crop pattern dynamics)概念化设计的基础上,借助MATLAB平台开放性、矩阵运算能力强等特点,实现CroPaDy模型的数值模拟,并以黑龙江省宾县调查数据为依据,完成模型的区域实证研究。基于MATLAB的模型实现过程充分考虑了CroPaDy模型的多层次性(土地流转行为与作物选择行为)成功实现了3个子模块的动态嵌套模拟:1)Agent生成模块。基于已有的多源GIS数据、统计数据、典型调查数据、以及个体的通用规则,利用蒙特卡洛方法生成每一个个体Agent的属性信息;2)Agent分类模块。基于调查数据对受访农户进行态度聚类分析,然后借助人工神经网络方法确定所有生成的Agent所在的类型;3)Agent决策模块。利用概率方法,计算特定周期内每个Agent的决策行为。区域实证研究中,直接将空间耕地网格作为个体Agent,实现区域全覆盖(网格大小设置为114 m×114 m,约等于户均耕地面积),模拟结果表明,研究区2010年玉米、大豆、水稻、烤烟的模拟结果分别为2 6055.9、5 192.2、3 506.8、3 983.9 hm2,利用宾县统计年鉴(2010)进行验证,模型总体模拟精度达90%以上。CroPaDy模型的设计与实现科学合理,具有较强的理论性与可操作性,能够用以表达特定区域内的农作物空间格局及其动态变化过程。

Paradigm and Ecological Implication of Changing Agricultural Land-use:A Case Study from Govind Wildlife Sanctuary,Central Himalaya,India

The paper scrutinizes that the changes in any sub-system(i.e.agriculture,livestock and forest) have direct impact on biophysical and social processes in village ecosystem of the central Himalayan region.In view of this,we studied the changes in spatial patterns of agricultural land use and dependency of agroecosystem on forest and animal husbandry over a period of two decades.Based on data analysis it was found that the cultivation of some traditional crops has either been abandoned in the area or declined by 25%-85% due to introduction of cash crops viz.,potato,kidney bean and apple farming with acreage increased up to 51%-72% in the last three decades.Livestock population of different categories has declined drastically by 17%-75%,and has resulted shortage of farmyard manure,deterioration of soil quality and fertility which leads to un-sustainability of agriculture system.The changes in agrobiodiversity have led to the dramatic increase in soil loss and runoff from the croplands together with the increase pressure on forests.The economic evaluation of each crop showed higher monetary benefit from cash crops as compared to traditional crops.Among all the evaluated crops,the monetary output/input ratio was found highest(3.04) for kidney bean and lowest(1.26) for paddy.Changes in land use and management have improved household income but at the cost of forest degradation,less productive animal husbandry and loss of agrodiversity in the region.Therefore,there is an urgent need to bring desirable changes in agricultural policy,research,land use and efficient management of the resources for maintaining sustainability in agro and Himalayan forest ecosystem.

Identification of agricultural systems in the mountains of Northeast Thailand

Agricultural systems in Thailand's northeastern mountains are described in terms of their type of crops, marketing channels, and labor requirements. Five distinctive systems are identified: The Field crop system, Fruit tree system, Industrial tree plantation system, Specialty crop system and Agro-tourism system. The different systems are compared with each other in order to identify their respective strengths and weaknesses as development models. The Field crop system covers the largest area of agricultural land and is found in all mountainous villages but it generates very low net profits per hectare. The Specialty crop system and Agro-tourism system generate very high net profits per hectare but cover only a small land area and have a restricted spatial distribution. Expansion of these high value systems may be limited because they are capital and labor intensive and require highly skilled farmers to manage them successfully. If these constraints can be overcome, they may offer a useful model for mountain agricultural development.

Integration of Soil Information System and Interactive Self-Organizing Data for Agricultural Developing Zones in Red Soil Region

Integration of soil information system (SIS) and interactive self-organizing data (ISODATA) was studied to establish proper agricultural developing zones in red soil region of southern China which are of crucial importance to farmers, researchers, and decision makers while utilizing and managing red soil resources. SIS created by using ARC/INPO was used to provide data acquisition, systematic model parameter assignment, and visual display of analytic results. Topography, temperature, soil component (e.g., organic matter and pH) and condition of agricultural production were selected as parameters of ISODATA model. Taking Longyou County, Zhejiang Province as the case study area, the effect of the integration and recommendations are discussed for future research.

Agricultural Drought Resisting and Hydrological-Ecological Changes Taking Hebei Province in North China as an Example

Drought is usually supposed to be a rainfall deficiency problem. Most studies and practices to mitigate drought disaster are focusing on water development and irrigation, while neglecting that the agriculture system is a compounded human-natural system. Drought situation and tendency is also driven by human coping strategies. This paper takes Hebei Province in north China as an example, studing the spirally interact process of drought resisting and hydrological ecological feedback. The result shows that large scale water projects construction facilitated irrigation. With improved irrigation, farmers enhanced multiple crop index and land-use intensity greatly and increased the sowing area of water consuming crop, winter wheat. At the same time, both crop yield and gross output are raising steadily. Water demand and depletion in agricultural system increase year by year. This gradually leads to highly dependent on over exploitation of water resources, especially overdraw of groundwater. The process deteriorated the stability of hydrological-ecological system and made the ecological environment drying up. Drying up environment is breeding greater vulnerability and risk of drought in the long term. For sustainable development, integrated drought risk management should be based on the balance between sustainable water supply and water demand. The key is to improve agricultural system＇s adaptive and resilient capacity to drought.

Assessment of Soil Quality Using Microarthropod Communities Under Different Land System： A Case Study in the Mid-Hills of Central Nepal

The study aimed to evaluate soil quality using microarthopods density, diversity and soil biological quality index （QBS-ar） under different land use systems and elevation gradients. A secondary aim was to determine the relationship among soil biological and physiochemical indicators. Three groups of soil microarthropods were recognized viz. （1） Collembola （38%） （2） Acarina （33%） and （3） other microarthropods （29%）. ANOVA indicated that total microarthropods densities differed significantly with land use and elevation. Population density of Acarina and other mieroarthropods were weakly significant different according to land use, while Collembola and Acarina densities showed highly significant difference with elevation. Total microarthropods, Acarina and Collembola densities were positively significantly correlated with soil organic carbon （SOC） and moisture but negatively correlated with bulk density, pH and temperature of the soil. SOC and soil moisture appeared to be good indicators of soil quality as reflected by the higher density and diversity of soil total microarthropods, Collembola, Acarina and other microarthropods group. The use of microarthropods for soil quality assessment could be effective and relatively inexpensive tool; however, further research is required to evaluate the impact of agricultural practices and elevation gradient on soil microarthropods density, diversity and species composition for the sustainable management of agro ecosystems.

Drivers of Change, Threats and Barriers to the Conservation of Biodiversity in Traditional Agricultural Systems

People and nature are working in tandem to reduce the integrity of traditional agricultural systems. The paper highlighted the drivers of change acting on traditional agricultural landscapes including the threats and barriers hindering biodiversity conservation. The drivers of change are： modem agriculture, tourism, education and outmigration and climate change. The threats are encroachment and land-use change, pollution, replacement of traditional varieties and erosion of indigenous knowledge systems and practices. The barriers to biodiversity conservation include the incapacity of farmers to respond to pressures affecting their traditional farming systems, absence of methodologies for integrating traditional and modem knowledge in biodiversity conservation and the multi-functionality of traditional agriculture not fully captured by the market. The conservation framework to guide stakeholders for in-situ management of biodiversity includes niche market development, revenue generation and cultural restoration. The study made use of data collected during the series of workshops conducted in 2005-2007 covering the Ifugao Rice Terraces of the Philippines. Secondary data from other traditional agricultural systems were integrated to enrich the discussion and write-up of this paper.

基于适宜概率模型的柑橘生产空间模拟变化

土地利用/土地覆被变化模拟是土地科学的重要内容。随着全球变化研究的不断深入,LUCC变化模拟已逐步深入到农作物空间。开展长时序农作物空间变化模拟有助于揭示农业生产过程中“人类-自然”综合体的复杂关系。然而目前农作物空间模拟研究较少,已有模型在空间映射关系,对象识别等尚存技术局限,模型应用也主要集中在粮食作物。本文构建了基于适宜概率的柑橘生产空间分配模型,对四川省柑橘生产空间分布进行了模拟研究。结果显示:该模型较好地反映了1980-2015年柑橘统计特征,各时期统计面积和模拟面积的相对误差均<25%。在县域尺度上,统计面积和模拟面积的相关系数在0.987 6~0.999 9,呈现明显的线性相关,达到了极显著相关。1980-2015年间,四川省柑橘空间快速扩张,柑橘模拟面积的时序变化与统计面积一致。柑橘空间集中在川中丘陵区和成都平原区。空间格局从分散零星向区域集聚转变,大致形成了成都平原、川南、川东北3个柑橘集中区。SPAM-Citrus模型误差受空间分辨率、空间分配规则、土地覆被、作物分布点的共同影响。在应用中应尽量选择种植年限较长的采样点,同时面向研究对象和区域,选择合适分辨率和空间分配规则,提高预测结果的准确性。

Soil Quality in Relation to Agricultural Production in the North China Plain

Sustainable agricultural production is of vital importance to food supply security. This study aimed to investigate crop yield response to spatial variability of soil quality at a county scale in the North China Plain （NCP） and subsequently derive key soil quality indicators. Soil samples were geo-referenced and taken in 2008 from both surface （0-20 cm） and subsurface （20-40 cm） layers in 132 fields throughout the Fengqiu County, located in the centre of the NCP, for subsequent soil properties＇ analyses. Annum crop yields were obtained from the same fields where soil samples were collected. Soil quality was evaluated based on a fuzzy set with 13 soil properties, and its spatial distributions were investigated by integrating geostatistical analysis and geographic information system （GIS） techniques. Soil quality indices were classified into five grades, and their spatial distributions were mapped within the county. The surface soil qualities were about one to two grades higher than the subsurface soil. The quality indices for surface and subsurface soils were positively associated with the annual crop yields, suggesting the importance of both. Soil organic matter, total nitrogen, available P, and available K contributed 50% of the combined weight to the soil quality index and were identified as key indicators of soil quality status in the area in terms of sustainability.

A Study of the Improvement of Planning Systems for Land Use Control in Agricultural Heritage Sites

The number of GIAHS sites is increasing these days and will continue to do so gradually in East Asian countries including Korea,China and Japan.As a result,conservation of heritage sites is more and more important,especially in Korea.Dealing with issues surrounding land use conflicts are important for conservation of heritages in order to harmonize between conservation and development to prevent reckless development.This study aims to identify measures for land use management and control to allow for sustainable development around agricultural heritage system sites.The results point to the importance of public-private partnerships and local ordinance systems or comprehensive planning of land use controls for agricultural heritage system sites.