黑龙港地区水土资源空间分布与农业种植结构优化研究

黑龙港地区是河北省重要的粮棉生产基地,但水资源的缺乏制约着该地区的农业经济发展,大量开采地下水来维持正常的农田灌溉用水,已造成地下水资源的严重破坏。纠其原因在于该地区农业种植结构现状与水土资源空间分布格局不适应。运用GIS技术客观、定量地分析了该地区的各县水土资源分布和农业种植结构,提出了该地区的农业种植结构优化方案,为该地区的农业区域规划提供了理论依据。

水足迹视角下西北旱区种植结构协同调整

以西北旱区为例,采用水足迹模型,分析主要农作物的耗水特点,并以水资源消耗量最小、生态安全和经济效益最大化为目标,构建以耕地资源、水资源和食物安全为约束条件的多目标规划模型对种植结构进行优化。结果表明:2000—2020年西北旱区主要作物产量增长2.41倍,种植面积增长1.24倍,粮食作物和经济作物的种植比例由2:1向1:1转变,种植结构由专一化向多样化发展;作物生产水足迹总量从838.70亿m^(3)增至1109.05亿m^(3),其中蓝水足迹占比高达79.09%,农业生产面临着巨大的水资源压力;调整作物种植结构,适当将蔬菜、薯类和豆类的种植面积提高140.593万hm2、1.863万hm^(2)和0.340万hm^(2),水资源消耗量可减少107.25亿m^(3),生态效益可提高27.47亿元,经济效益可提高470.74亿元。研究结果对促进西北旱区农业结构优化调整和水资源可持续利用具有重要的参考价值。

A multi-objective fuzzy optimization model for cropping structure and water resources and its method

Cropping structure has a close relationship with the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. Based on the analysis of the relationship between agricultural water resources and sustainable development, this paper presents a multi objective fuzzy optimization model for cropping structure and water allocation, which overcomes the shortcoming of current models that only considered the economic objective,and ignored the social and environmental objectives. During the process, a new method named fuzzy deciding weight is developed to decide the objective weight. A case study shows that the model is reliable, the method is simple and objective, and the results are reasonable. This model is useful for agricultural management and sustainable development.