Both the labor shortage that began in 2000 and the wave of migrant workers returning to the countryside in 2009 sparked intense debates among scholars about whether China had reached the Lewis turning point. Based on ...Both the labor shortage that began in 2000 and the wave of migrant workers returning to the countryside in 2009 sparked intense debates among scholars about whether China had reached the Lewis turning point. Based on agricultural economics and the dual-sector model the author conducted an empirical analysis and arrived at the followingfive conclusions. First, the dual economy is structured differently among agricultural industrial sectors and regions. Second, surplus labor still exists in the backyard stockbreeding sector （hogs, beef cattle, sheep, and dairy cattle）, implying that it has still not passed the first turning point. Third, the sector of production of staple food grains and minor cereals has passed the shortage point, but is still far from the commercialization point. Fourth, cash crop production has passed out of the subsistence sector into the capitalist sector. Fifth, regional differences are stark. the majority of China＇s eastern region is either approaching or has surpassed the commercialization point, whereas the central and western regions have not.展开更多
Understanding the synergic relationship between the Grain for Green Program(GGP)and the agricultural eco-economic system is important for designing an optimized agricultural eco-economic system and developing a highly...Understanding the synergic relationship between the Grain for Green Program(GGP)and the agricultural eco-economic system is important for designing an optimized agricultural eco-economic system and developing a highly efficient structure of an agricultural industry chain and a resource chain.This study used Ansai County time series data from 1995 to 2014,applied vector autoregressive(VAR)models and used tools such as Granger causality,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,to explore the synergy between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.The results revealed a synergic and reciprocal relationship between the GGP and the agroeconomic system.The contribution of the GGP to the agroecosystem reached 34%,which was significantly higher than either its largest contribution to the agroeconomic system(20.8%)or its peak contribution to the agrosocial system(26.7%).The agroeconomic system had the most prominent influence on the GGP,with a year-round stable contribution of up to 55.3%.These results were consistent with reality.However,the impact of the GGP on the agricultural eco-economic system was weaker than the effect of the agricultural eco-economic system on the GGP.The lag of variable stationarity after the shock was relatively short,indicating that optimal coupling had not formed between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.On the basis of enhancing the ecological functions,we should construct the agricultural industry-resource chain such that it focuses on promoting the effective utilization of resources in the region.In addition,the development of a carbon sink industry can be used to manifest the ecological values of ecological functions.展开更多
文摘Both the labor shortage that began in 2000 and the wave of migrant workers returning to the countryside in 2009 sparked intense debates among scholars about whether China had reached the Lewis turning point. Based on agricultural economics and the dual-sector model the author conducted an empirical analysis and arrived at the followingfive conclusions. First, the dual economy is structured differently among agricultural industrial sectors and regions. Second, surplus labor still exists in the backyard stockbreeding sector （hogs, beef cattle, sheep, and dairy cattle）, implying that it has still not passed the first turning point. Third, the sector of production of staple food grains and minor cereals has passed the shortage point, but is still far from the commercialization point. Fourth, cash crop production has passed out of the subsistence sector into the capitalist sector. Fifth, regional differences are stark. the majority of China＇s eastern region is either approaching or has surpassed the commercialization point, whereas the central and western regions have not.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFC0501707)The National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFC0503702)The National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571515)。
文摘Understanding the synergic relationship between the Grain for Green Program(GGP)and the agricultural eco-economic system is important for designing an optimized agricultural eco-economic system and developing a highly efficient structure of an agricultural industry chain and a resource chain.This study used Ansai County time series data from 1995 to 2014,applied vector autoregressive(VAR)models and used tools such as Granger causality,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,to explore the synergy between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.The results revealed a synergic and reciprocal relationship between the GGP and the agroeconomic system.The contribution of the GGP to the agroecosystem reached 34%,which was significantly higher than either its largest contribution to the agroeconomic system(20.8%)or its peak contribution to the agrosocial system(26.7%).The agroeconomic system had the most prominent influence on the GGP,with a year-round stable contribution of up to 55.3%.These results were consistent with reality.However,the impact of the GGP on the agricultural eco-economic system was weaker than the effect of the agricultural eco-economic system on the GGP.The lag of variable stationarity after the shock was relatively short,indicating that optimal coupling had not formed between the GGP and the agricultural eco-economic system.On the basis of enhancing the ecological functions,we should construct the agricultural industry-resource chain such that it focuses on promoting the effective utilization of resources in the region.In addition,the development of a carbon sink industry can be used to manifest the ecological values of ecological functions.
