This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions （1951-2004）. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW （total a...This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions （1951-2004）. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW （total available water） net irrigation requirements NIRs range from 0 to 380 mm. In soils of small TAW, NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia/Silistra are about 100 mm smaller than in Plovdiv while in Sandanski they are 30-110 mm larger. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability （29% 〈 Cv 〈 72%）. Considering an economical RYD （relative yield decrease） threshold, 32% of years are risky when TA Wis large in Plovdiv that is double than in Sofia and half than in Sandanski. In North Bulgaria the risky years are 10% in Pleven/Silistra that is half than in Lom. In Plovdiv region reliable relationships （R2 〉 91%） were found relating the SPI2 ＂July-Aug.＂ with simulated RYD of rainfed maize while remaining relationships were less accurate （73% 〈 R2 〈 86%）. Economical losses are produced when High Peak Season SPI2 〈 ＋ 0.20 in Sandanski, SPI2 〈 - 0.50 in Plovdiv and SPI2 〈 - 0.90 in Sofia. In North Bulgaria the SPI2 threshold ranges from - 0.75 to - 1.50. Derived reliable relationships and SPl-thresholds are used for drought vulnerability mapping.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of climate change on gender and poverty in Nigeria. The paper relies mainly on secondary data generated by private individuals, government and non-government bodies. ...The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of climate change on gender and poverty in Nigeria. The paper relies mainly on secondary data generated by private individuals, government and non-government bodies. From these sources, the paper reveals that climate change has resulted in higher temperature increase frequency on extreme weather events in the country, such as storms or record drought resulting in the dislocation of agricultural areas and its consequence food shortage. Women are the hardest hit because they produce food and do not have control over land to make most communities vulnerable to flooding as seen in Lokoja, Bauchi and Kaduna among others in Nigeria. Flooding has increased the frequency of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dysentery, typhoid, cholera, etc.. Women who clean the mess left behind after the flood are mostly affected. It is also revealed that climate change has resulted in great economic losses, with most of the losses to be in agricultural production, the engine of growth and the mainstay of the economy. Finally, the paper suggests measures such as reduction in deforestation by provision of alternative source of energy and environmental friendly industrial activities will help reduce the rate of discharge of carbon-dioxide into the atmosphere.展开更多
In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes(landscape ...In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes(landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951–2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm(Mythimna separate(Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides.展开更多
文摘This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions （1951-2004）. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW （total available water） net irrigation requirements NIRs range from 0 to 380 mm. In soils of small TAW, NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia/Silistra are about 100 mm smaller than in Plovdiv while in Sandanski they are 30-110 mm larger. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability （29% 〈 Cv 〈 72%）. Considering an economical RYD （relative yield decrease） threshold, 32% of years are risky when TA Wis large in Plovdiv that is double than in Sofia and half than in Sandanski. In North Bulgaria the risky years are 10% in Pleven/Silistra that is half than in Lom. In Plovdiv region reliable relationships （R2 〉 91%） were found relating the SPI2 ＂July-Aug.＂ with simulated RYD of rainfed maize while remaining relationships were less accurate （73% 〈 R2 〈 86%）. Economical losses are produced when High Peak Season SPI2 〈 ＋ 0.20 in Sandanski, SPI2 〈 - 0.50 in Plovdiv and SPI2 〈 - 0.90 in Sofia. In North Bulgaria the SPI2 threshold ranges from - 0.75 to - 1.50. Derived reliable relationships and SPl-thresholds are used for drought vulnerability mapping.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of climate change on gender and poverty in Nigeria. The paper relies mainly on secondary data generated by private individuals, government and non-government bodies. From these sources, the paper reveals that climate change has resulted in higher temperature increase frequency on extreme weather events in the country, such as storms or record drought resulting in the dislocation of agricultural areas and its consequence food shortage. Women are the hardest hit because they produce food and do not have control over land to make most communities vulnerable to flooding as seen in Lokoja, Bauchi and Kaduna among others in Nigeria. Flooding has increased the frequency of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dysentery, typhoid, cholera, etc.. Women who clean the mess left behind after the flood are mostly affected. It is also revealed that climate change has resulted in great economic losses, with most of the losses to be in agricultural production, the engine of growth and the mainstay of the economy. Finally, the paper suggests measures such as reduction in deforestation by provision of alternative source of energy and environmental friendly industrial activities will help reduce the rate of discharge of carbon-dioxide into the atmosphere.
基金supported by the National Natural Science of China (31400349, 31572059)the National Key Technology R & D Program (2012BAD19B05)the State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents (IPM1513)
文摘In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes(landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951–2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm(Mythimna separate(Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides.
