基于预防性维修的农机备件需求预测问题研究

随着农业机械的快速发展,对备件需求量进行预测是保证农业机械及时维修的关键。根据农机备件的特点,本文提出应用PCA-SVR方法进行农机备件需求预测。首先,分析影响备件需求的因素,建立影响农机备件需求量的指标体系;其次,构建PCA-SVR预测模型;最后,针对某品牌农机备件开展实证研究,将影响农机备件需求量的9个因素通过PCA降维成4个主成分,随后应用SVR方法进行预测,研究结果表明,该方法的预测值与实际情况相比误差较小,本文提出的PCA-SVR方法在MAE、RMSE和MAPE值分别是950.86、1424.78和15.88,分别比线性回归模型以及随机森林模型的MAE、RMSE和MAPE值小607.45、1830.83,451.1、1753.88以及6.1、1.46,说明其具有优越性。

以采购为导向的农机备件分类模型的构建

从农机备件分类的研究着手,结合备件需求的研究成果,建立了农机备件的三维分类模型:按技术特性分类作为应用轴;按ABC法分类作为成本轴;按农机备件需求的角度分类作为需求轴。对模型各维度轴所代表的因素在采购中的应用进行了分析,总结了每个维度轴在备件采购领域的指导价值,并给出了相应的指导策略,利用模型综合应用这些策略就使得采购更具有现实的操作意义。并对备件三维模型应用领域进行了探讨,指出了今后进一步研究的方向。

The role of agricultural mechanization technology in the promotion of scientific and technological achievements in agriculture

Agricultural mechanization is to the use advanced and applicable agricultural machinery and equipment in agriculture to improve agricultural production conditions, and continuously improve the production technology and economic, ecological processes of agriculture. The level of agricultural science and technology depends largely on the degree of agricultural mechanization promotion. An agricultural country level depends on the degree of modern agricultural mechanization level of the application, and the era of mechanization in agriculture can not only save a lot of labor, reduce labor intensity, but also improve labor efficiency, and enhance resistance to natural disasters. The importance of agricultural mechanization technology in the scientific and technological achievements in agriculture is visible.