三门峡市冰雹灾害风险评估

[目的]三门峡市汛期冰雹多发,易给当地特色农业带来不利影响,通过对冰雹灾害风险进行评估,辨识高风险区,为更为有效地指导防灾减灾提供科学依据。[方法]利用降雹、数字高程模型、遥感影像、财政收入和防雹能力建设等数据对三门峡市冰雹灾害风险进行评估;根据各因子及其权重建立三门峡市冰雹灾害风险评估模型,定量计算各因子的冰雹灾害风险指数:将各项数据叠加得到三门峡市冰雹灾害风险指数,并对高低风险区进行了划分。[结果]高风险、中高风险区主要集中在崤山南北两侧的河谷一带,其面积占全市面积的24%。[结论]应重点关注高风险、中高风险区的防雹减灾工作。评估结果可为三门峡市冰雹防灾减灾和产业发展提供参考。

Risk Assessment of Hail Disaster on Cotton——A Case Study in Anhui Province

[Objective] The aim was to reveal the pattern of hail disaster risk for cotton in Anhui Province. [Method] Based on database of risk evaluation on hail disaster for cotton in Anhui Province, statistical inference and comprehensive indices measurement were made use of for extraction of disastrous index of hail （H） and loss rate of cotton （L）. Hail vulnerability curves in four stages （seedling, bud, boll and boll opening stages） of cotton were fitted by Matlab and SPSS software. Risk evaluation on hail disaster of cotton in Anhui Province was conducted and the related map was drawn on basis of yearly model of loss rate （by hail disaster）, as follows： Sa=n∑i=1Si-a∏i=1Si=1-（1-Si） [Result] In Anhui Province, high risk area by hail concentrates in northeast regions and mountainous regions in west of Anhui, and lower risk area is distributed in middle and down streams of Yangtze River and mountainous area in south of Anhui. [Conclusion] The research explored evaluation methods on hail risks based on the limited information, and could provide references for risk evaluation on hail disaster in other regions.