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机场热点时空分布特征及运行风险评价 被引量:8
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作者 夏正洪 万健 朱新平 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2018年第1期93-98,共6页
为研究大型机场航空器地面滑行冲突风险,提出一种基于机场热点时空分布特征的机场机动区运行风险评价方法。首先,以中南地区某机场为例,将场监雷达数据按每3 h分段,分别识别各时间段的机场热点,分析其时空分布特征;然后,基于热点发生的... 为研究大型机场航空器地面滑行冲突风险,提出一种基于机场热点时空分布特征的机场机动区运行风险评价方法。首先,以中南地区某机场为例,将场监雷达数据按每3 h分段,分别识别各时间段的机场热点,分析其时空分布特征;然后,基于热点发生的可能性和后果的严重性,构建考虑航空器冲突架次比、冲突可能性、冲突持续时间、冲突级别的机场热点风险评价模型,依据现有机场热点风险等级评价标准,评价该机场的热点风险等级。结果表明:该机场02号跑道运行风险高于20号跑道;02号跑道起降时,12:00—15:00点的机场热点风险最高;20号跑道起降时,9:00—12:00点机场热点的风险较高,与该机场实际运行情况基本相符。 展开更多
关键词 机场热点 时空分布特征 风险评价 地面交通流 冲突架次比 冲突持续时间
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Colorectal cancer in inflammatory bowel disease:What is the real magnitude of the risk? 被引量:26
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作者 Jessica K Dyson Matthew D Rutter 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第29期3839-3848,共10页
The association between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) and colorectal cancer(CRC) has been recognised since 1925 and still accounts for 10%-15% of deaths in IBD.IBD-associated CRC(IBD-CRC) affects patients at a young... The association between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) and colorectal cancer(CRC) has been recognised since 1925 and still accounts for 10%-15% of deaths in IBD.IBD-associated CRC(IBD-CRC) affects patients at a younger age than sporadic CRC.The prognosis for sporadic CRC and IBD-CRC is similar,with a 5-year survival of approximately 50%.Identifying at risk patients and implementing appropriate surveillance for these patients is central to managing the CRC risk in IBD.The increased risk of colorectal cancer in association with IBD is thought to be due to genetic and acquired factors.The link between inflammation and cancer is well recognised but the molecular biology,immune pathobiology and genetics of IBD-CRC are areas of much ongoing research.This review examines the literature relating to IBD-CRC,focusing on the incidence of IBD-CRC and examining potential risk factors including age at diagnosis,gender,duration and extent of colitis,severity of inflammation,family history of sporadic CRC and co-existent primary sclerosing cholangitis(PSC).Confirmed risk factors for IBD-CRC are duration,severity and extent of colitis,the presence of co-existent PSC and a family history of CRC.There is insufficient evidence currently to support an increased frequency of surveillance for patients diagnosed with IBD at a younger age.Evidence-based guidelines advise surveillance colonoscopy for patients with colitis 8 to 10 years after diagnosis,with the interval for further surveillance guided by risk factors(extent of disease,family history of CRC,post-inflammatory polyps,concomitant PSC,personal history of colonic dysplasia,colonic strictures).There is a move away from using random colonic biopsies towards targeted biopsies aimed at abnormal areas identified by newer colonoscopic techniques(narrow band imaging,chromoendoscopy,confocal microendoscopy). 展开更多
关键词 Colorectal cancer Inflammatory bowel disease Ulcerative colitis Crohn's disease Risk
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