Probabilistic Evaluation for Commercial Real Estate Investments

Throughout the decision-making process, prudent investors must address questions regarding the probabilities of future profit gain. In this study, the probability-based discounted cash flow （DCF） method with net present value （NPV） as the indicator was adopted as an analysis tool. A probabilistic framework for measuring exceeding probability of annual rate of return on a commercial real estate investment under a specified holding period was developed. Based on the framework, the relation curves of annual rate of return versus the corresponding exceeding probability of return for available financing schemes were constructed. These curves were used as a tool to prioritize the schemes and inform decision-making. An example case is presented to demonstrate the decision-making process developed in this study. Through the proposed process, investors are given basic information on the return, probability that profit gain will occur, and feasibility of financial schemes for commercial real estate investments.

Product risk reduction using consensus theory

Product analytics is a blend of computational methods with the express purpose of facilitating the multifaceted process of decision-making based on demographic and consumer preferences. This complex subject is derived from consensus theory and includes structured analytics, categories, and the combination of evidence. The methodology is applicable to a wide range of business, economic, social, political, and strategic decisions. The paper describes a product allocation application to demonstrate the conceots.

IDMI Analysis of Regional Low-Carbon Development Based on System Dynamic Simulation

During the decision-making process, especially in multi-disciplinary complex cases, assessment technique is needed to assist policy-makers in making the right decision. Many of such assessment techniques have been developed for policy-makers, but the inevitable subjectivity of policy-makers often becomes the main obstacle in making the right or proper policy. Interlink decision-making index （IDMI） is a newly proposed assessment method with the advantages of being simple to use and having less human interference over other methods, as it does not require a weighting process of each selection criterion. This paper implements IDMI to assist with decision-making in national or regional low-carbon development, using China as a case study. The Chinese government has annotmced its carbon emission reduction target along with other development targets by 2020. Many policy settings can be chosen in order to achieve those targets. The problem is how to determine the best setting and the means by which decision-makers can avoid subjectivity and extremes. A number of policy setting options are generated carefully by a system dynamic model under different policy scenarios. The IDMI demonstrates a perfect way to assist in selecting the ＂best＂ among all the options that can achieve the goals within the acceptable range.

The Application of Multi-Criteria Analysis to Managing Human Resources on the Local Government Level in Environment Protection

This project investigates the hypothesis for keeping the environment safe by using human resources at the local government level. Strategic decision-making in the management of human recourses in the field of environmental protection is crucial for the countries in transition. Lack of financial and technological resources can be compensated with other potentials. Therefore, it is necessary to emphasize the decision-making process. Optimization of the existing resources under real conditions is needed in order to get better results of the implementation of adopted strategies. As an example, the scheme of optimal solution based on PROMETHEE method （multi-criteria method of optimization） is given.

Use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis Methods for Water Supply Problems： A Framework for Improved Rainwater Harvesting

Several conflicting objectives are considered in decision-making. MCDA （multi-criteria decision analysis） methods are developed to facilitate better decision making by decision-makers. Water supply problems are complex problems with multiple decision making and criteria. Hence, the use of multi-criteria decision analysis is very appropriate for solving these problems. Multi-criteria decision analysis can be divided into three main groups： value measurement models, goals, aspiration and reference level models and outranking models. The methods listed have been applied to water supply problems, especially in the evaluation of alternative water supply strategies. Each method has its advantages and limitations. A good alternative for concluding a better-suited method for water supply problems is to apply more than one method, either in combination to make use of the strengths of both methods, or in parallel to obtain a broader decision basis for the decision maker. Previous studies of MCDA in water supply planning have usually considered water supply networks with only one water service delivery. Advanced water supply sources with multiple water service delivery systems have been neglected. This is an on-going study in which analytical hierarchical multi-criteria decision analysis methods are proposed for solving water supply problems and a framework for improved rainwater harvesting systems will be developed.

Measurement of Economic Result in Public Organizations： A Departmental Analysis

The aim of this work is to demonstrate how public university hospital （UH） managers can improve the process of decision-making by using the measurement of economic value added to the society （EVAS） generated by these organizations. Thus, the economic values of the organization and its departments were calculated, according to the theory studied： measurement model of economic result of Slomski （1996）. It was considered the conduction of a case study in a public UH, evaluating its economic performance in a 3-year period. For the interpretation of results, the Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA） which categorized the departments of the hospital studied as efficient or inefficient was used. This study revealed that managers can improve the decision-making process by using the EVAS, since it has been established that this measurement of economic value has sensitivity to identify which of the economic value drivers should be emphasized in the management.

Selecting Alternatives from Self-Organizing Product Maps for Purchase Decision Making Using AHP

We previously proposed a method for creating product maps with SOM （Self-Organizing Maps） to be used during purchase decision making. In that study, we first established two class boundaries, which divide the area between the minimum and maximum range of an input feature value into three equal parts. Then, we produced self-organizing product maps using classification data inputs. Finally, we applied our method to five product types and confirmed its effectiveness. In this paper, we propose a method for selecting alternatives from a product map, in which we have located a favorite several examples of selecting alternatives and making decisions using cluster, and/or from a favorite component map. We then show the AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process）.

The decision-making process for senior cancer patients: treatment allocation of older women with operable breast cancer in the UK

Objective: Up to 40% of women over 70 years with primary operable breast cancer in the UK are treated with primary endocrine therapy(PET) as an alternative to surgery. A variety of factors are important in determining treatment for older breast cancer patients. This study aimed to identify the patient and tumor factors associated with treatment allocation in this population.Methods: Prospectively collected data on treatment received(surgery vs. PET) were analysed with multivariable logistic regression using the variables age, modified Charlson Comorbidity Index(CCI), activities of daily living(ADL) score, Mini-Mental State Examination(MMSE) score, HER2 status, tumour size, grade and nodal status. Results: Data were available for 1,122 cancers in 1,098 patients recruited between February 2013 and June 2015 from 51 UK hospitals. About 78% of the population were treated surgically, with the remainder being treated with PET. Increasing patient age at diagnosis, increasing CCI score, large tumor size(5 cm or more) and dependence in one or more ADL categories were all strongly associated with non-surgical treatment(P<0.05).Conclusion: Increasing comorbidity, large tumor size and reduced functional ability are associated with reduced likelihood of surgical treatment of breast cancer in older patients. However, age itself remains a significant factor for non-surgical treatment; reinforcing the need for evidence-based guidelines.

企业战略转移的理论探讨

企业战略转移是企业成长过程中某一时期所采取的重大战略行动。本文在评论有关理论观点的基础上,提出了企业战略转移的定义和特征,对企业战略转移的动因、类型、转移程度的划分、决策分析过程进行了探讨。