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A Method for Risky Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Four - dimensional Reference Point
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作者 DUAN Mingyuan YAN Ruixia 《International English Education Research》 2016年第12期22-25,共4页
A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes a... A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved. 展开更多
关键词 Risk multiple attribute decision making Cumulative Prospect Theory Four-dimensional reference point
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Product risk reduction using consensus theory
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作者 Harry Katzan, Jr. 《Chinese Business Review》 2009年第12期36-43,共8页
Product analytics is a blend of computational methods with the express purpose of facilitating the multifaceted process of decision-making based on demographic and consumer preferences. This complex subject is derived... Product analytics is a blend of computational methods with the express purpose of facilitating the multifaceted process of decision-making based on demographic and consumer preferences. This complex subject is derived from consensus theory and includes structured analytics, categories, and the combination of evidence. The methodology is applicable to a wide range of business, economic, social, political, and strategic decisions. The paper describes a product allocation application to demonstrate the conceots. 展开更多
关键词 categorical analysis consensus theory Dempster's rule ANALYTICS Dempster-Shafer theory
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Reformative Financial Risk Management Approach: A Multistage Decision Support System with the Assistance of Fuzzy Goal Programming and Expertons Method
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作者 S.Ceren Oner 《Journal of Mathematics and System Science》 2014年第9期620-636,共17页
The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been st... The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been struggled for building up intensive financial risk management tools due to Basel II guidance on establishing financial self-assessment systems. In this respect, decision support system has a significant role on effectuating intensive financial risk management roadmap. In this study, a reformative financial risk management system is presented with the combination of determining financial risks with their importance, calculating risk scores and making suggestions based on detected risk scores by applying corrective actions. First, financial risk factors and indicators of these risk variables are selected and weights of these variables are specified by using fuzzy goal programming. After that, total risk scores are calculated and amendatory financial activities are appeared by means of expertons method which also provides possibilities of the alternative decisions. To illustrate the performance of integrated and multistage decision support system, a survey is applied on the end users. 展开更多
关键词 Financial risk management decision support systems fuzzy goal programming expertons method
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高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析
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作者 沈作军 柳青 肖佳平 《航空学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2016年第1期317-323,共7页
针对高超声速飞行器研制工程的高风险特点,对工程决策方和研制方面临的不同类型风险进行了建模分析。基于系统方案或关键技术的固有风险概率和抽象化的研发与验证过程,分别计算分析了工程决策方误判验收通过不合格产品和研制方过度研发... 针对高超声速飞行器研制工程的高风险特点,对工程决策方和研制方面临的不同类型风险进行了建模分析。基于系统方案或关键技术的固有风险概率和抽象化的研发与验证过程,分别计算分析了工程决策方误判验收通过不合格产品和研制方过度研发或重复验证较低失败概率产品的风险概率,进而提出了高风险研发项目中研制方过度研发风险的概念,明确了工程决策误判风险与研制方过度研发风险的相互影响规律,并基于概率方法建立了一种可以综合权衡决策方风险和研制方风险、合理确定研制周期的系统工程优化方法。 展开更多
关键词 高超声速飞行器 研制工程 过度研发风险 决策方风险 风险概率 系统工程优化
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