To realize real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting and forewarning of coalmine ventilation systems(CVS), in this paper, we first established a joint surface and underground CVS safety management system consist...To realize real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting and forewarning of coalmine ventilation systems(CVS), in this paper, we first established a joint surface and underground CVS safety management system consisting of main ventilation fan, safety-partition linked passageways, and air-required locations. We then applied chaos theory to identify the air quantity and gas concentration of underground partition boundaries, and adopted a fixed data quantity, multi-step progressive, weighted first-order local-domain method to setup a chaos prediction model and a CVS safety forecasting and forewarning system formed by the normal change level, orange forewarning level, and red alarm level. We next conduct the on-field application of the system in a coalmine in Jining, Shandong, China. The results showed that (1) in the statistical scale of 5 min, the changes in both air quantity and gas concentration along CVS partition airflow boundaries were characteristic of chaos and could be used for short-term chaos prediction, and the latter was more chaotic than the former;(2) the setup chaos prediction model had a higher prediction precision and the established safety prediction system could not only predict the variation in CVS stability but also reflect the rationality of underground mining intensity. Thus, this CVS safety forecasting and forewarning system is of better application value.展开更多
This study focuses on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea(SCS). An automatic eddy detection method,based on the geometry of velocity vectors,was adopted to ...This study focuses on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea(SCS). An automatic eddy detection method,based on the geometry of velocity vectors,was adopted to obtain an eddy dataset from 21 years of satellite altimeter data. Analysis revealed that the number of anticyclonic eddies was nearly equal to cyclonic eddies; in the SCS,cyclonic eddies are generally stronger than anticyclonic eddies and anticyclonic eddies are larger and longer-lived than cyclonic eddies. Anticyclonic eddies tend to survive longer in the spring and summer,while cyclonic eddies have longer lifetimes in the autumn and winter. The characteristics and seasonal variations of eddies in the SCS are strongly related to variations in general ocean circulation,in the homogeneity of surface wind stress,and in the unevenness of bottom topography in the SCS. The spatial and temporal variation of mesoscale eddies in the SCS could,therefore,be an important index for understanding local hydrodynamics and regional climate change.展开更多
The 2 ℃ warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reac...The 2 ℃ warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reach 2℃ rela- tive to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Repre- sentative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCPS.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2℃ threshold-crossing time (TCT) of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a 4-1o- range of inter- model SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 ℃ TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncer- tainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensi- tivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 ~C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a cli- mate more sensitive to CO2 forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radia- tion, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.展开更多
The extreme modern elevation of the Tianshan Mountains reflects the Cenozoic deformation. Apatite Fission Track (AFI) chronometry is widely used to study the latest cooling stages caused by tectonic process or by ex...The extreme modern elevation of the Tianshan Mountains reflects the Cenozoic deformation. Apatite Fission Track (AFI) chronometry is widely used to study the latest cooling stages caused by tectonic process or by exhumation in the uppermost crust. However, uncertainties remain over timing constraints on thermal history of the Tianshan Mountains since the Cenozoic though a great mount of dating work had been done in this area. To address this issue, modern river sands from the drainage basin on the piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains were sampled to integrate regional information. Single grains were dated with the AFT method, and then different grain-age components were identified to provide thermochronological constraints of their sources. Combined with discussion of previous dataset, our results show the multi-staged rapid cooling cluster at 46-32, 25-24, 19-13, 8-6, and -3 Ma, respectively. We interpreted these cooling events as a result of interplays between the Cenozo- ic tectonic uplift of the mountains and regional climate change.展开更多
In this study, the variations in surface soil liquid water(SSLW) due to future climate change are explored in the‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain'(‘3H') region in China with the Common Land Model(CoLM). To evaluate the...In this study, the variations in surface soil liquid water(SSLW) due to future climate change are explored in the‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain'(‘3H') region in China with the Common Land Model(CoLM). To evaluate the possible maximum response of SSLW to climate change, the combination of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to the parameter(CNOP-P) approach and projections from 10 general circulation models(GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5(CMIP5) are used. The CNOP-P-type temperature change scenario, a new type of temperature change scenario, is determined by using the CNOP-P method and constrained by the temperature change projections from the 10 GCMs under a high-emission scenario(the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario). Numerical results have shown that the response of SSLW to the CNOP-P-type temperature scenario is stronger than those to the 11 temperature scenarios derived from the 10 GCMs and from their ensemble average in the entire ‘3H' region. In the northern region, SSLW under the CNOP-P-type scenario increases to0.1773 m^3 m^(-3); however, SSLW in the scenarios from the GCMs fluctuates from 0.1671 to 0.1748 m^3 m^(-3). In the southern region,SSLW decreases, and its variation(–0.0070 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the CNOP-P-type scenario is higher than each of the variations(–0.0051 to –0.0026 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the scenarios from the GCMs.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51304128 and 51674158)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2013EEQ015)
文摘To realize real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting and forewarning of coalmine ventilation systems(CVS), in this paper, we first established a joint surface and underground CVS safety management system consisting of main ventilation fan, safety-partition linked passageways, and air-required locations. We then applied chaos theory to identify the air quantity and gas concentration of underground partition boundaries, and adopted a fixed data quantity, multi-step progressive, weighted first-order local-domain method to setup a chaos prediction model and a CVS safety forecasting and forewarning system formed by the normal change level, orange forewarning level, and red alarm level. We next conduct the on-field application of the system in a coalmine in Jining, Shandong, China. The results showed that (1) in the statistical scale of 5 min, the changes in both air quantity and gas concentration along CVS partition airflow boundaries were characteristic of chaos and could be used for short-term chaos prediction, and the latter was more chaotic than the former;(2) the setup chaos prediction model had a higher prediction precision and the established safety prediction system could not only predict the variation in CVS stability but also reflect the rationality of underground mining intensity. Thus, this CVS safety forecasting and forewarning system is of better application value.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2013AA09A505)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1133001)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers Grant(No.U1406401)
文摘This study focuses on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea(SCS). An automatic eddy detection method,based on the geometry of velocity vectors,was adopted to obtain an eddy dataset from 21 years of satellite altimeter data. Analysis revealed that the number of anticyclonic eddies was nearly equal to cyclonic eddies; in the SCS,cyclonic eddies are generally stronger than anticyclonic eddies and anticyclonic eddies are larger and longer-lived than cyclonic eddies. Anticyclonic eddies tend to survive longer in the spring and summer,while cyclonic eddies have longer lifetimes in the autumn and winter. The characteristics and seasonal variations of eddies in the SCS are strongly related to variations in general ocean circulation,in the homogeneity of surface wind stress,and in the unevenness of bottom topography in the SCS. The spatial and temporal variation of mesoscale eddies in the SCS could,therefore,be an important index for understanding local hydrodynamics and regional climate change.
基金supported jointly by the ‘‘Strategic Priority Research Program–Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues’’ of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05110300)the Research Fund for Commonwealth Trades (Meteorology) (GYHY201506012)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41420104006)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2015M581152)
文摘The 2 ℃ warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reach 2℃ rela- tive to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Repre- sentative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCPS.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2℃ threshold-crossing time (TCT) of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a 4-1o- range of inter- model SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 ℃ TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncer- tainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensi- tivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 ~C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a cli- mate more sensitive to CO2 forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radia- tion, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.
文摘The extreme modern elevation of the Tianshan Mountains reflects the Cenozoic deformation. Apatite Fission Track (AFI) chronometry is widely used to study the latest cooling stages caused by tectonic process or by exhumation in the uppermost crust. However, uncertainties remain over timing constraints on thermal history of the Tianshan Mountains since the Cenozoic though a great mount of dating work had been done in this area. To address this issue, modern river sands from the drainage basin on the piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains were sampled to integrate regional information. Single grains were dated with the AFT method, and then different grain-age components were identified to provide thermochronological constraints of their sources. Combined with discussion of previous dataset, our results show the multi-staged rapid cooling cluster at 46-32, 25-24, 19-13, 8-6, and -3 Ma, respectively. We interpreted these cooling events as a result of interplays between the Cenozo- ic tectonic uplift of the mountains and regional climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.91437111&41375111&41675104&41230420)
文摘In this study, the variations in surface soil liquid water(SSLW) due to future climate change are explored in the‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain'(‘3H') region in China with the Common Land Model(CoLM). To evaluate the possible maximum response of SSLW to climate change, the combination of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to the parameter(CNOP-P) approach and projections from 10 general circulation models(GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5(CMIP5) are used. The CNOP-P-type temperature change scenario, a new type of temperature change scenario, is determined by using the CNOP-P method and constrained by the temperature change projections from the 10 GCMs under a high-emission scenario(the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario). Numerical results have shown that the response of SSLW to the CNOP-P-type temperature scenario is stronger than those to the 11 temperature scenarios derived from the 10 GCMs and from their ensemble average in the entire ‘3H' region. In the northern region, SSLW under the CNOP-P-type scenario increases to0.1773 m^3 m^(-3); however, SSLW in the scenarios from the GCMs fluctuates from 0.1671 to 0.1748 m^3 m^(-3). In the southern region,SSLW decreases, and its variation(–0.0070 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the CNOP-P-type scenario is higher than each of the variations(–0.0051 to –0.0026 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the scenarios from the GCMs.