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防范人口风险的主要任务和应对措施
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作者 郝福庆 《经济研究参考》 2004年第63期30-30,共1页
1.提高人口风险意识,树立科学的人口安全观.要加强人口重大战略性问题的前瞻性研究,认清人口发展过程中的各种矛盾和风险因素,科学预警,及早应对,排除安全隐患,把风险控制在安全警戒线内.
关键词 安全观 中国 分口风险 计划生育政策 数量 风险防范措施 素质 社会保障体系
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Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study 被引量:2
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作者 Yen-Chih Lin Chew-Teng Kor +1 位作者 Wei-Wen Su Yu-Chun Hsu 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2018年第44期5034-5045,共12页
AIM To explore the risk factors of developing chronic pan-creatitis (CP) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and develop a prediction score for CP.METHODS Using the National Health Insurance Research Database... AIM To explore the risk factors of developing chronic pan-creatitis (CP) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and develop a prediction score for CP.METHODS Using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, we obtained large, population-based data of 5971 eligible patients diagnosed with AP from 2000 to 2013. After excluding patients with obstructive pancreatitis and biliary pancreatitis and those with a follow-up period of less than 1 year, we conducted a multivariate analysis using the data of 3739 patients to identify the risk factors of CP and subsequently develop a scoring system that could predict the development of CP in patients with AP. In addition, we validated the scoring system using a validation cohort.RESULTS Among the study subjects, 142 patients (12.98%) developed CP among patients with RAP. On the other hand, only 32 patients (1.21%) developed CP among patients with only one episode of AP. The multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of recurrent AP (RAP), alcoho-lism, smoking habit, and age of onset of 〈 55 years were the four important risk factors for CP. We developed a scoring system (risk score 1 and risk score 2) from the derivation cohort by classifying the patients into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk categories based on similar magnitudes of hazard and validated the performance using another validation cohort. Using the prediction score model, the area under the curve (AUC) [95% confdence interval (CI)] in predicting the 5-year CP incidence in risk score 1 (without the number of AP episodes) was 0.83 (0.79, 0.87), whereas the AUC (95%CI) in risk score 2 (including the number of AP episodes) was 0.84 (0.80, 0.88). This result demonstrated that the risk score 2 has somewhat better prediction performance than risk score 1. However, both of them had similar performance between the derivation and validation cohorts.CONCLUSIONIn the study,we identifed the risk factors of CP and devel-oped a prediction score model for CP. 展开更多
关键词 Chronic pancreatitis Acute pancreatitis Pre-diction score Endoscopic ultrasound Recurrent acute pancreatitis
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Meta-Analysis of Smoking and the Risk of Gastric Cancer among the Chinese Population
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作者 Na Liu Yueping Shen +2 位作者 Liqiang Qin Tianfeng He Yinmei Liu 《Clinical oncology and cancer researeh》 CAS CSCD 2009年第4期296-302,共7页
OBJECTIVE To reevaluate the effect of tobacco smoking on therisk of developing gastric cancer among the Chinese population.METHODS Thirty articles from the literature both in Chineseand English from January,1988 to pr... OBJECTIVE To reevaluate the effect of tobacco smoking on therisk of developing gastric cancer among the Chinese population.METHODS Thirty articles from the literature both in Chineseand English from January,1988 to present were identified andfrom which adjusted odd ratios(ORs)or relative risks(RRs)werecombined by meta-analysis.Generalized least squares(GLS)fortrend estimation of summarized dose-response data was carriedout.All the analyses were performed using software of STATAversion 10.0.RESULTS Comparing current smokers with subjects who havenever smoked,the summary effect values on gastric cancer witha 95% confidence interval(CI)were 1.67(1.43-1.96)for case-control studies and 1.52(1.17-1.96)for cohort studies,respectively.The combined effect values with a 95%CI for the comparison ofsmoking quantity of current smokers with the referent groupwere 1.41(1.15-1.72)for case-control studies and 1.24(1.02-1.52)for cohort studies,respectively.The combined effect values witha 95%CI for the comparison of accumulative years smoked ofcurrent smokers with the referent group were 1.07(0.89-1.28)for case-control studies and 1.28(0.95-1.74)for cohort studies,respectively.Dose-response meta-analysis showed that the gastriccancer risk will increase 50%(OR=1.50,95%CI:1.34-1.67)witheach 20 cigarette per day increment and increase 14%(OR=1.14,95%CI:1.10-1.18)with each 10 year increment of smoking.CONCLUSION The gastric cancer risk among the Chinesepopulation is significantly associated with tobacco smoking andthe smoking quantity per day.Smoking cessation should be morestrongly advocated. 展开更多
关键词 tobacco smoking gastric cancer Chinesepopulation DOSE-RESPONSE meta-analysis.
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A polymorphism within ErbB4 is associated with risk for hepatocellular carcinoma in Chinese population 被引量:1
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作者 Qiang Yu,Chun-Xiao Zhou,Nan-Sheng Chen,Shu-Dan Zheng,Li-Ming Shen,Jin-Kun Zhang,Department of Gastroenterology,Suzhou Municipal Hospital,Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Suzhou 215002,Jiangsu Province,China 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第4期383-387,共5页
AIM:To investigate the association between hepatocel-lular carcinoma (HCC) susceptibility and a 12-bp inser-tion/deletion polymorphism (rs6147150) in the 3'UTR of ErbB4.METHODS:Using a case-control design,the rs61... AIM:To investigate the association between hepatocel-lular carcinoma (HCC) susceptibility and a 12-bp inser-tion/deletion polymorphism (rs6147150) in the 3'UTR of ErbB4.METHODS:Using a case-control design,the rs6147150 genotypes in 270 patients with HCC and 270 healthy controls were determined by direct polymerase chain reaction and polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis.Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between the polymorphism and cancer risk.RESULTS:Computational modeling suggested that rs6147150 was located in the seed region of hsa-let-7c,a potential target sequence in ErbB4 3'UTR.Logistic re-gression analysis showed that,compared with individu-als homozygous for wild-type,heterozygotes [adjusted odds ratio (OR)=1.48,95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.03-2.17,P=0.034] and individuals homozygous for 12-bp del/del (OR=2.50,95% CI=1.37-4.56,P=0.001) were at significantly higher risk of HCC.Car-riers of the "del" allele of rs6147150 had a 1.59-fold increased risk for HCC (95% CI=1.22-2.07,P=0.003).CONCLUSION:rs6147150 may be associated with HCC risk,in part through let-7c-mediated regulation,and may be involved in the pathogenesis of HCC in Chi-nese populations. 展开更多
关键词 Hepatocellular carcinoma ERBB4 rs6147150 Insertion/deletion polymorphism
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Isolation and characterization of Zika virus imported to China using C6/36 mosquito cells 被引量:12
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作者 Chenglin Deng Siqing Liu +7 位作者 Qiuyan Zhang Mingyue Xu Honglei Zhang Dayong Gu Lei Shi Jian'an He Gengfu Xiao Bo Zhang 《Virologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第2期176-179,共4页
Dear Editor,Zika virus(ZIKV)is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that usually causes asymptomatic infections or mild illness in humans.However,the unprecedented epidemics of ZIKV in Latin America since early 2015 have mad... Dear Editor,Zika virus(ZIKV)is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that usually causes asymptomatic infections or mild illness in humans.However,the unprecedented epidemics of ZIKV in Latin America since early 2015 have made this flavivirus an international health risk(Liu and Zhang,2016). 展开更多
关键词 imported unprecedented Jiangxi Figure Guangdong illness passage registered isolation borne
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Prognostic factors and predictive model for in-hospital mortality following hip fractures in the elderly 被引量:12
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作者 J. Sanz-Reig J. Salvador Marin +3 位作者 J. Ferrandez Martinez D. Orozco Beltran J.F. Martinez Lopez J.A. Quesada Rico 《Chinese Journal of Traumatology》 CAS CSCD 2018年第3期163-169,共7页
Purpose: The incidence of hip fractures is increasing within the aging population. Our objective was to identify and quantify the risk factors and develop a predictive model for the in-hospital mortality among hip fr... Purpose: The incidence of hip fractures is increasing within the aging population. Our objective was to identify and quantify the risk factors and develop a predictive model for the in-hospital mortality among hip fracture patients older than 65 years. Methods: This is a prospective study conducted on 331 hip fracture patients older than 65 years admitted to our hospital from 2011 to 2014. Patients' demographics, prehospitalization residential status, pre- fracture comorbidity data, anti-aggregant and anticoagulant medication, preoperative hemoglobin value, type of fractures, type of treatments, time to surgery, and complications were recorded. Results: The average age was 83 years, 73% female, and 57% of them sustained a femoral neck fracture. In 62.8% of patients, the number of pre-fracture baseline comorbidities was 〉2. The in-hospital mortality rate was 11.4%. In multivariate analysis, age over 90 years, congestive heart failure, asthma, rheumatologic disease, lung cancer, and not taking antiaggregant medication were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. A formula and risk stratification scoring for predicting the risk for in-hospital mortality was developed, Risk-adjustment model based on these variables had acceptable accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality (c-statistic 0.77). Conclusion: Advanced age, and five prefracture comorbidities have a strong association with in-hospital mortality in a hip fracture patient older than 65 years old. Our predictive model was specifically designed for the old hip fracture population. It has an accuracy similar to other risk models. The specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value are high. In addition, it could discriminate a high risk patient from a low risk patient for in-hospital mortality. 展开更多
关键词 Hip fractures In-hospital mortality Prognostic factors Elder population
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Competition for food in 2 populations of a wild-caught fish
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作者 Pierre J.C. CHUARD Grant E. BROWN James W.A. GRANT 《Current Zoology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期615-622,共8页
Aggressive behavior when competing for resources is expected to increase as the ratio of competitors-to-resource ratio (CRR) units increases. Females are expected to be more aggressive than males when competing for ... Aggressive behavior when competing for resources is expected to increase as the ratio of competitors-to-resource ratio (CRR) units increases. Females are expected to be more aggressive than males when competing for food when body size is more strongly related to reproductive suc- cess in females than in males, whereas aggression is predicted to decrease under high ambient predation risk by natural selection. Under the risk allocation model, however, individuals under high ambient predation risk are expected to be more aggressive, and forage more in the absence of imminent risk than their low risk counterparts. An interaction between adult sex ratio (i.e., adult males/females), ambient predation risk (high vs. low), and sex on intrasexual competition for mates in Trinidadian guppies Poecilia reticulata has been shown. The interaction suggested an increase in aggression rates as CRR increased, except for males from the high predation population. To compare the patterns of competition for food versus mates, we replicated this study by using food patches. We allowed 4 male or 4 female guppies from high and low predation populations to com- pete for 5, 3, or 1 food patches. The foraging rate was higher in a high rather than low ambient pre- dation risk population. Surprisingly, CRR, sex, and population of origin had no effect on aggression rates. Despite other environmental differences between the 2 populations, the effect of ambient predation risk may be a likely explanation for differences in foraging rates. These results highlight the importance for individuals to secure food despite the cost of competition and predation. 展开更多
关键词 AGGRESSION competitor-to-resource ratio FORAGING Poecifia reticulata population differences predation risk SEX
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