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应用有序分对数模型对水蚀进行评价
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作者 付景春 舒乔生 +2 位作者 戈云 B. G.J. S. Sonneveld P.J. Albersen 《水土保持科技情报》 2000年第2期19-21,47,共4页
土壤专家针对不同土地利用类型提出了水蚀定性评价模型,它以土地特性作变量,适用于缺乏详细资料,且无法用定量模型的地区。把土地利用和生境条件作变量与专家定性观测相关联建立有序分对数模型对水蚀进行分级,其总体准确率为78%... 土壤专家针对不同土地利用类型提出了水蚀定性评价模型,它以土地特性作变量,适用于缺乏详细资料,且无法用定量模型的地区。把土地利用和生境条件作变量与专家定性观测相关联建立有序分对数模型对水蚀进行分级,其总体准确率为78%,8%偏高,14%偏低。在预测有无侵蚀时准确率为86%,但在判断中、强度侵蚀时准确率较低,这是由于专家对侵蚀分级在认识上不同引起的。 展开更多
关键词 侵蚀评价 有序分对数模型 定性评价 水蚀 荷兰
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利用多项式分对数模型的决策分析:评估可能的抵押契约
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作者 柴振荣 《管理观察》 1998年第6期9-9,共1页
关键词 多项式分对数模型 决策 抵押 契约 预期净现值 状态概率 CORPORATE 一种解释 FAILURE 定量结果
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基于人流分析的上海世博会规划方案评价与调整 被引量:14
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作者 王德 朱玮 +3 位作者 黄万枢 马力 郭洁 农耘之 《城市规划》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第8期26-32,共7页
介绍了同济大学参与世博会场地规划设计的两轮方案编制过程中的人流模拟分析的尝试。首先根据60位学生的虚拟参观数据建立参观者选择展馆的多项分对数模型;然后以规划方案为条件,应用模型模拟参观者的参观流线;从特征流线、人流分布、... 介绍了同济大学参与世博会场地规划设计的两轮方案编制过程中的人流模拟分析的尝试。首先根据60位学生的虚拟参观数据建立参观者选择展馆的多项分对数模型;然后以规划方案为条件,应用模型模拟参观者的参观流线;从特征流线、人流分布、人数分布等方面进行分析。结果发现第一轮方案将引起参观者活动过于向东片展区集中的问题,并依此调整形成第二轮方案。调整取得了良好的效果,参观者活动分布趋于平衡,流线也更顺畅。说明人流分析对于规划方案评价与调整的潜在价值。 展开更多
关键词 世博会 参观者行为 多项分对数模型 流线模拟
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基于Mixed Logit模型的顾客品牌选择研究 被引量:1
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作者 刘勇 赵保国 《财经问题研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第6期126-131,共6页
虽然多项分对数模型(Multinomial Logit Model,MNL)已广泛应用到营销研究中,但存在口味问题、跨期间的重复选择和替代形式三个局限。混合分对数模型(Mixed Logit模型)将自变量设置成某种参数分布,则可以消除MNL假设的局限性。笔者采用Mi... 虽然多项分对数模型(Multinomial Logit Model,MNL)已广泛应用到营销研究中,但存在口味问题、跨期间的重复选择和替代形式三个局限。混合分对数模型(Mixed Logit模型)将自变量设置成某种参数分布,则可以消除MNL假设的局限性。笔者采用Mixed Logit模型分析营销变量如何影响顾客的品牌选择及市场份额,发现礼品促销等手段给顾客带来具体利益的促销,影响最大;同时通过模型比较,发现Mixed Logit模型比MNL拟合效果更好。 展开更多
关键词 多项分对数模型 MIXED LOGIT模型 品牌选择
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考虑消费者场景依赖偏好的产品线设计与定价优化模型
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作者 夏一 刘晓杰 张英英 《计算机集成制造系统》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2023年第3期974-988,共15页
消费者在商品购买过程中会出现违背理性选择行为的现象。相同质量的商品在不同参照产品场景下可能给消费者带来不同的感知,即购买决策过程中无法保证无关方案独立性。消费者对商品的选择受到可选集合内其他商品影响的现象称作场景依赖... 消费者在商品购买过程中会出现违背理性选择行为的现象。相同质量的商品在不同参照产品场景下可能给消费者带来不同的感知,即购买决策过程中无法保证无关方案独立性。消费者对商品的选择受到可选集合内其他商品影响的现象称作场景依赖偏好。为研究消费者场景依赖偏好对产品线设计与定价的影响,将参考效应、折中效应和相似效应3种场景效应与概率选择模型结合,建立了考虑场景依赖偏好的产品线设计与定价优化模型。之后通过平板电脑产品线的设计案例验证了方法的有效性,并进一步分析了3种场景效应对最优产品线设计、定价、利润和市场份额的影响。求解结果提供了若干具有意义的管理启示,特别是可考虑在产品线内布置“迷惑产品”等。 展开更多
关键词 产品线设计 参考效应 折中效应 相似效应 多项式分对数模型
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基于三维水足迹模型的甘肃省水资源可持续性评估研究
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作者 马西东 黄维东 +3 位作者 牛最荣 张金霞 王晓庆 杨昊凡 《水利规划与设计》 2024年第5期11-17,47,共8页
基于三维水足迹模型,从空间与时间尺度上分析甘肃省水资源可持续利用水平,选用水压力指数、水生态赤字与盈余、水资源可持续指数和水资源集约利用指数构建水资源可持续利用评估体系,并进一步分析水足迹变化的驱动因素。结果表明:在2013... 基于三维水足迹模型,从空间与时间尺度上分析甘肃省水资源可持续利用水平,选用水压力指数、水生态赤字与盈余、水资源可持续指数和水资源集约利用指数构建水资源可持续利用评估体系,并进一步分析水足迹变化的驱动因素。结果表明:在2013—2022年间,甘肃省水资源承载力整体呈波动下降趋势,水足迹无明显变化;甘肃省水生态大部分年份处于盈余状态,但有向赤字发展的趋势;全省水资源可持续利用水平整体处于较差的状态,其中兰州市和白银市为“极不安全”状态。该结果可为区域水资源管理和可持续利用提供技术支撑。 展开更多
关键词 三维水足迹模型 水资源承载力 水资源可持续利用 对数平均迪氏指数解法(LMDI)模型 甘肃省
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基于非集计理论的驾驶适宜性度量模型 被引量:1
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作者 冯忠祥 袁华智 +1 位作者 刘静 张卫华 《中国安全科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2013年第1期10-15,共6页
为量化驾驶人的驾驶适宜性,丰富对其的检测理论和方法,应用非集计理论中的多项分对数(MNL)模型构建驾驶适宜性度量模型。模型以驾驶人一定时间内事故发生次数作为选择肢,以个人固有属性、生理心理属性14项指标作为影响因素,并根据200份... 为量化驾驶人的驾驶适宜性,丰富对其的检测理论和方法,应用非集计理论中的多项分对数(MNL)模型构建驾驶适宜性度量模型。模型以驾驶人一定时间内事故发生次数作为选择肢,以个人固有属性、生理心理属性14项指标作为影响因素,并根据200份实际调查数据标定各影响因素参数。另外,选取60份数据验证该模型。结果显示:14项指标参数检验值均小于1.96,各参数统计学意义显著;模型判定系数为0.364 748,表明模型拟合程度较高;且该模型计算值与统计值最大绝对误差仅为3.3%,表明模型精度较高,可用于预测驾驶适宜性。 展开更多
关键词 交通安全 驾驶适宜性 事故倾向性 非集计理论 多项对数(MNL)模型
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南京东路消费者的回游消费行为研究 被引量:17
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作者 朱玮 王德 齐藤参郎 《城市规划》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第2期9-17,共9页
延续对上海南京东路商业街消费者的“入口消费行为”研究,研究消费者的“回游消费行为”。引入马尔可夫链(MarkovChain)模型,并证明该方法可以准确地测算商业空间的消费者活动人次。用嵌套分对数模型(nestedlogitmodel)解释消费者的空... 延续对上海南京东路商业街消费者的“入口消费行为”研究,研究消费者的“回游消费行为”。引入马尔可夫链(MarkovChain)模型,并证明该方法可以准确地测算商业空间的消费者活动人次。用嵌套分对数模型(nestedlogitmodel)解释消费者的空间选择行为。发现模型对南京东路消费者样本的拟合取得了良好的拟合优度,模型参数的行为意义与入口模型基本取得一致。整合入口模型、回游模型和马尔可夫模型后实施现实模拟,发现商业立地在吸引消费者过程中的重要性以及模型方法在多目的规划中应用的潜力。 展开更多
关键词 回游消费行为 马尔可夫链模型 嵌套 分对数模型 南京东路
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客运方式选择方法研究 被引量:6
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作者 杨兆升 黎春兰 《中国公路学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 1997年第2期77-82,共6页
本文提出一种新的客运方式选择方法,以多项式分对数模型为基础,进行分析和选择适当的指标来确定模型,使模型更能真实地反映方式分担率的变化规律。
关键词 方式选择 多项式 分对数模型 交通运输 旅客运输
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南京东路消费者的空间选择行为与回游轨迹 被引量:17
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作者 朱玮 王德 《城市规划》 CSSCI 北大核心 2008年第3期33-40,共8页
首先使用多项分对数模型解释消费者的空间选择行为;然后基于模型进行模拟,再现个体消费者最可能实施的回游轨迹,发现消费者在南京东路中的顺游行为、折返行为、跨越行为等行为特征,以及在回游过程中易被忽略或易使行为不稳定发生的空间... 首先使用多项分对数模型解释消费者的空间选择行为;然后基于模型进行模拟,再现个体消费者最可能实施的回游轨迹,发现消费者在南京东路中的顺游行为、折返行为、跨越行为等行为特征,以及在回游过程中易被忽略或易使行为不稳定发生的空间问题;探讨影响消费者停留的多种空间原因。最后在南京东路"金三角"地区大规模开发以及假设河南中路以东段步行化两种空间结构改变的情形下,预测消费者回游轨迹的变化。 展开更多
关键词 空间选择行为 多项分对数模型 回游轨迹 行为特征 行为预测 南京东路
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山东半岛蓝色经济区碳排放的影响因素 被引量:3
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作者 颜伟 孙佳欣 +1 位作者 高梦斐 张晓莹 《济南大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 北大核心 2019年第6期550-555,共6页
基于改进的Kaya恒等式和对数平均迪氏分解(LMDI)模型,对2009—2016年山东半岛蓝色经济区的碳排放进行因素分解和贡献率计算。结果表明:排放强度效应是促进碳排放的主导因素,对碳排放总量变化贡献率可达到96.72%;能源强度效应对碳排放量... 基于改进的Kaya恒等式和对数平均迪氏分解(LMDI)模型,对2009—2016年山东半岛蓝色经济区的碳排放进行因素分解和贡献率计算。结果表明:排放强度效应是促进碳排放的主导因素,对碳排放总量变化贡献率可达到96.72%;能源强度效应对碳排放量起到遏制作用,对碳排放总量变化贡献率为-27.03%,2009—2016年期间一直处于贡献率负值,在一定程度上抑制了碳排放的增长;经济因素是促进碳排放增加的关键因素,对碳排放总量变化贡献率为28.5%;人口因素对碳排放总量变动的影响较小。 展开更多
关键词 碳排放量 山东半岛蓝色经济区 Kaya恒等式 对数平均迪氏解法模型 影响因素
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Studying on equilibriums between price and QoS in multi-provider overlay access networks
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作者 王玉峰 Wang Wendong 《High Technology Letters》 EI CAS 2006年第2期129-135,共7页
From the viewpoint of game theory, this paper proposes a model that combines QoS index with price factor in overlay access networks, and uses the multinomial logit (MNL) to model the choice behaviour of users. Each ... From the viewpoint of game theory, this paper proposes a model that combines QoS index with price factor in overlay access networks, and uses the multinomial logit (MNL) to model the choice behaviour of users. Each service class is considered an independent and competitive entity offered by each provider, which aims at maximizing its own utility. Based on noncooperative game, we prove the existence and uniqueness of equilibriums between QoS levels and prices among various service classes, and demonstrate the properties of equilibriums. Finally, these results are verified via ntunerieal analysis. 展开更多
关键词 Overlay access network noncooperative game multinomial logit model Nash equilibrium
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Fractional Birkhoffian Dynamics Based on Quasi-fractional Dynamics Models and Its Lie Symmetry 被引量:3
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作者 JIA Yundie ZHANG Yi 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI CSCD 2021年第1期84-95,共12页
In order to investigate the dynamic behavior of non-conservative systems,the Lie symmetries and conserved quantities of fractional Birkhoffian dynamics based on quasi-fractional dynamics model are proposed and studied... In order to investigate the dynamic behavior of non-conservative systems,the Lie symmetries and conserved quantities of fractional Birkhoffian dynamics based on quasi-fractional dynamics model are proposed and studied.The quasi-fractional dynamics model here refers to the variational problem based on the definition of RiemannLiouville fractional integral(RLFI),the variational problem based on the definition of extended exponentially fractional integral(EEFI),and the variational problem based on the definition of fractional integral extended by periodic laws(FIEPL).First,the fractional Pfaff-Birkhoff principles based on quasi-fractional dynamics models are established,and the corresponding Birkhoff’s equations and the determining equations of Lie symmetry are obtained.Second,for fractional Birkhoffian systems based on quasi-fractional models,the conditions and forms of conserved quantities are given,and Lie symmetry theorems are proved.The Pfaff-Birkhoff principles,Birkhoff’s equations and Lie symmetry theorems of quasi-fractional Birkhoffian systems and classical Birkhoffian systems are special cases of this article.Finally,some examples are given. 展开更多
关键词 quasi-fractional dynamics model Lie symmetry conserved quantity fractional Birkhoffian system Riemann-Liouville derivative
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Coupled Reaction/Distillation Process for Hydrolysis of Methyl Acetate 被引量:8
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作者 赵素英 黄镜钊 +1 位作者 王良恩 黄国强 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2010年第5期755-760,共6页
A process composed of a fixed-bed and a distillation column with a side withdraw, mainly methanol, is developed to hydrolyze methyl acetate (MA) as a typical byproduct in polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and pure terephthalic ... A process composed of a fixed-bed and a distillation column with a side withdraw, mainly methanol, is developed to hydrolyze methyl acetate (MA) as a typical byproduct in polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and pure terephthalic acid (PTA) factory. The process is simulated by employing the equilibrium stage model RadFrac and plug flow model Rplug in Aspen Plus. Experiments are also carried out in a lab-scale to evaluate the process. The results show that at the molar ratio of water to methyl acetate about 4.0-5.0 in the feed stream and the volume ratio of distillate to feed MA above a critical value, the side product contains more than 80% (by mass) (MeOH) and less than 2% (by mass) MA, while the bottom contains more than 46% (by mass) acetic acid (HAc) and less than 0.5% (by mass) methanol with almost complete conversion of MA. Compared with the old catalytic distillation process we proposed before, this process can cut down 47.6% energy consumption and a distillation column. 展开更多
关键词 methyl acetate HYDROLYSIS SIMULATION
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Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Using Set Pair Analysis Models:Take Beichuan County as an Example 被引量:10
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作者 YANG Feng-guang LIANG Yue +6 位作者 SINGH Vijay P. WANG Wen-sheng ZHOU Xiao-quan LIU Xing-nian CAO Shu-you HUANG Er WU Yan-hua 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第4期1015-1022,共8页
Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis (SPA) and mod... Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis (SPA) and modified Set Pair Analysis (mSPA), were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard. 展开更多
关键词 Set Pair Analysis (SPA) Modified SetPair Analysis (mSPA) Debris flow Hazardassessment Connection degree
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An Econometric Analysis of Cotton Production Technologies in Harran Plain, Turkey: Translog versus Cobb-Douglas Functions
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作者 T. Isgin R. Ozel +1 位作者 A. Bilgic S. Ipekcioglu 《Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(B)》 2011年第3期420-427,共8页
This research explores the question of how the three production factors, capital, labor, and land may impact the current level of cotton output on the Harran Plain, a major cotton production area in Turkey. The object... This research explores the question of how the three production factors, capital, labor, and land may impact the current level of cotton output on the Harran Plain, a major cotton production area in Turkey. The objective of this paper is to estimate a Translog production function and compare the results to those from a Cobb-Douglas specification. Nested tests we performed resulted in the conclusion that the constant returns to scale, weak separability and Cobb-Douglas hypotheses are all satisfied. Thus the Cobb-Douglas specification is a superior functional form yielding results more robust than those from the translog model. Dwelling on Cobb-Douglas estimation results, farm size is found the most influential variable determining cotton output, followed by the variable representing capital as the second influential. Results also demonstrate that the returns-to-scale parameter calculated for this sample is not statistically different from unity, suggesting that cotton production technology in this region exhibits constant returns to scale. This result is consistent with current literature findings that render support to an inverse relationship between farm size and productivity in developing countries. 展开更多
关键词 Cotton translog model cobb-douglas model weak separability TURKEY constant returns to scale.
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Comprehensive modeling approach of axial ultrasonic vibration grinding force 被引量:2
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作者 何玉辉 周群 +1 位作者 周剑杰 郎献军 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第3期562-569,共8页
The theoretical model of axial ultrasonic vibration grinding force is built on the basis of a mathematical model of cutting deforming force deduced from the assumptions of thickness of the undeformed debris under Rayl... The theoretical model of axial ultrasonic vibration grinding force is built on the basis of a mathematical model of cutting deforming force deduced from the assumptions of thickness of the undeformed debris under Rayleigh distribution and a mathematical model of friction based on the theoretical analysis of relative sliding velocity of abrasive and workpiece. Then, the coefficients of the ultrasonic vibration grinding force model are calculated through analysis of nonlinear regression of the theoretical model by using MATLAB, and the law of influence of grinding depth, workpiece speed, frequency and amplitude of the mill on the grinding force is summarized after applying the model to analyze the ultrasonic grinding force. The result of the above-mentioned law shows that the grinding force decreases as frequency and amplitude increase, while increases as grinding depth and workpiece speed increase; the maximum relative error of prediction and experimental values of the normal grinding force is 11.47% and its average relative error is 5.41%; the maximum relative error of the tangential grinding force is 10.14% and its average relative error is 4.29%. The result of employing regression equation to predict ultrasonic grinding force approximates to the experimental data, therefore the accuracy and reliability of the model is verified. 展开更多
关键词 cutting deformation force ultrasonic vibration assisted grinding (UVAG) regression equation comprehensive modeling
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Gillnet Selectivity and Length at Maturity of Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) in a Tropical Reservoir (Amerti: Ethiopia)
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作者 Mathewos Hailu 《Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(A)》 2014年第2期135-140,共6页
The selectivity of gillnets for Oreochromis niloticus in Amerti reservoir (9°63′ N, 37°23′ E) was determined from gillnets with four mesh sizes (60, 80, 100 and 120 mm). Four selectivity models (a nor... The selectivity of gillnets for Oreochromis niloticus in Amerti reservoir (9°63′ N, 37°23′ E) was determined from gillnets with four mesh sizes (60, 80, 100 and 120 mm). Four selectivity models (a normal model assuming fixed spread, a normal model assuming that spread is proportional to mesh size, a lognormal model and a gamma model) were fitted to the data by using the share each length's catch total (SELECT) method. A total of 657 specimens of Oreochromis niloticus were caught (12.0-35.5 cm total length, TD. The sizes at first sexual maturity were 21.5 cm TL and 18.9 cm TL, respectively, for male and female Oreochromis niloticus. The lognormal selectivity curve provided the best fit to the data according to model deviance estimates with optimum selectivity of 16.66, 22.26, 27.78 and 33.38 cm TL for the 60, 80, 100 and 120 mm mesh sizes, respectively. 展开更多
关键词 GILLNET mesh selectivity Nile tilapia SELECT
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Spatial Probabilistic Model of Block Failure Capacity of Piles in Clay
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作者 IndraDjati Sidi 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2016年第11期1220-1225,共6页
A probability based model of block failure capacity of pile foundation in clay soil under axial load is developed. The model was based on the first order second moment method. Instead of using point variability, the s... A probability based model of block failure capacity of pile foundation in clay soil under axial load is developed. The model was based on the first order second moment method. Instead of using point variability, the soil inherent variability is modelled as random field model. Based on this model, a reliability based factor of safety for designing pile group foundation, taking into account bock failure mechanism, is proposed. Furthermore, using simplified lognormal model, the relationship between the factor of safety used in design practice and target reliability may be derived explicitly. 展开更多
关键词 Block failure soil variability random field model error reliability index.
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Reliability analysis of laminated composite under compression and shear loads 被引量:1
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作者 王富生 张钧然 +2 位作者 王佩艳 霍世慧 岳珠峰 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第10期2712-2717,共6页
Carrying on a series of compression and shear tests by a large number of specimens, reliabilities of T300/QY8911 laminated composite were studied when dispersibility models were described. The results show that the st... Carrying on a series of compression and shear tests by a large number of specimens, reliabilities of T300/QY8911 laminated composite were studied when dispersibility models were described. The results show that the stress is linearly dependent on the strain and the damage modes of specimens are brittle fracture for both kinds of tests. Dispersibility models of compression and shear strength are expressed as Re-N(415.39, 6 586.36) and Rs-ln(5.071 8, 0.155 3), respectively. When normal and lognormal distributions were used to describe the dispersibility models of compression and shear strength, and the compression or shear load follows the normal distribution, the almost same failure probability can be obtained from different reliability analysis methods. 展开更多
关键词 laminated composite dispersibility model reliability analysis compression SHEAR brittle fracture failure probability
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