面向决策的群体科技项目评估——以技术开发专项资金项目立项评估为例

本文在总结5次技术开发专项资金项目立项评估经验的基础上，对面向决策的群体科技项目评估的概念、特点、专家选择、程序，以及评估意见的形成、评估意见的反馈和申诉等方面进行了扼要介绍。本文中提出的“分层次评估法”在实践中收到了良好效果，也为其它一些评估机构所采用。

A personalized trustworthy service selection method

A personalized trustworthy service selection method is proposed to fully express the features of trust, emphasize the importance of user preference and improve the trustworthiness of service selection. The trustworthiness of web service is defined as customized multi-dimensional trust metrics and the user preference is embodied in the weight of each trust metric. A service selection method combining AHP （analytic hierarchy process） and PROMETHEE （preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations） is proposed. AHP is used to determine the weights of trust metrics according to users＇ preferences. Hierarchy and pairwise comparison matrices are constructed. The weights of trust metrics are derived from the highest eigenvalue and eigenvector of the matrix. to obtain the final rank of candidate services. The preference functions are defined according to the inherent characteristics of the trust metrics and net outranking flows are calculated. Experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively express users＇ personalized preferences for trust metrics, and the trustworthiness of service ranking and selection is efficiently improved.

AHP-FCE Based Physical Exercise Risk Evaluation Model

Exercise is a highly proven and beneficial health promotion modality, But it is very difficult to determine whether the person during exercise is safe. A unique and comprehensive approach is proposed to perform physical exercise risk evaluation （PERE）, in which personalized factors are deterrrdned basing on grey correlation analysis, analytic hierarchy process （AHP） method is used to structure the large numbers of risk factors, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation （FCE） is applied to fuzzify the factors and compute the exercise risk level. Finally, an actual calculation example is used to verify the feasibility of the method.

Application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and neural network in power transformer risk assessment

In operation,risk arising from power transformer faults is of much uncertainty and complicacy.To timely and objectively control the risks,a transformer risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and artificial neural network(ANN) from the perspective of accuracy and quickness is proposed.An analytic hierarchy process model for the transformer risk assessment is built by analysis of the risk factors affecting the transformer risk level and the weight relation of each risk factor in transformer risk calculation is analyzed by application of fuzzy consistency judgment matrix;with utilization of adaptive ability and nonlinear mapping ability of the ANN,the risk factors with large weights are used as input of neutral network,and thus intelligent quantitative assessment of transformer risk is realized.The simulation result shows that the proposed method increases the speed and accuracy of the risk assessment and can provide feasible decision basis for the transformer risk management and maintenance decisions.

Ecological and Economic System Health Assessment Based on Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis:A Case Study of Northwest Region,China

Due to the increasingly serious environmental pollution and destruction,especially humans' unreasonable activities,the ecological and economic system(EES) issues of Northwest region in China have attracted more and more attention of the researchers.Aiming at evaluating its ecological and economic system health,a multi-objective evaluation framework called PressureState-Response(PSR) was established to describe the ecological and economic health situations.Meanwhile,an integrative set pair model combining set pair analysis(SPA) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) was proposed to assess the ecological and economic system.Then the EES status of five northwest provinces(Shanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang) of Northwest region in China was evaluated during 1985 to 2009.The EES development trends of five provinces are obtained.In general,the health values of five provinces showed a rising trend.The health values of five provinces grew rapidly during 1985 to 2000.After 2000,the health values of five provinces still followed the present growth trend,but the growth is relatively smooth.The results show that the method proposed is effective for assessing the health of ecological and economic system.

Sustainability Assessment and Ranking of Run of the River(RoR) Hydropower Projects Using Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP):A Study from Western Himalayan Region of India

In the present scenario,tapping the unutilised hydropower potential is one of the highest priorities in developing countries of the world.Special emphasis is being imparted to run of the river(RoR)mode of power generation.However,the governments are now facing the dilemma whether to promote small hydropower projects(SHPs) or encourage large hydropower projects(LHPs).RoR large hydropower projects result into large scale cutting of mountains for constructing tunnels and access roads,generation of huge quantity of muck and large scale impact on flora and fauna due to diversion of rivers/streams.On the other hand,though SHPs are claimed to be greener and more sustainable by a section of researchers and energy planners but,they will be required to be set up in large number to generate equivalent amount of electricity.The aim of this study is to rank the most sustainable installed capacity range of RoR hydropower projects.To achieve this aim,the study proposes the use of quite popular multi-criteria decision making(MCDM)method of Operation Research named Analytical Hierarchy Process.A case study has been presented from Himachal Pradesh,a hydro rich state located in the western Himalayan region.As per sustainability assessment carried out in this study,hydropower projects in the capacity range 1 to 5 MW have been ranked to be the most sustainable.

Risk assessments of debris flow based on improved analytic hierarchy process and efficacy coefficient method

In order to evaluate the danger of debris flow properly, eight factors were selected as the risk assess- ment indexes of the debris flow, namely the vertical slope, valley relative difference, hillside slope, area of ba- sin, loose solid material reserves, the path length of sediment supply probability, silting and scouring derrieking and vegetation coverage. The improved Analytic Hierarchy Process （ AHP ） method was used to obtain the weights of the factors; and the efficacy coefficient method was adopted to evaluate the risks of six typical debris flow gullies. According to the research, the improved AHP method not only avoids the subjectivity in the indi- vidual factor valuation by comparing two factors of each layer, but also makes the subsequent consistency check unnecessary.

Studies on the Weight Algorithm on Seafarers＇ Competence Assessment Index

The purpose for seafarers＇ competence assessment is to evaluate the practical operational ability of the applicants and the weight of the index directly influences the accuracy of the assessment results. This paper takes the assessment of route making as an example, makes use of the analytic hierarchy process in determining the weight of the indexes to provide theoretical reference for the perfection of seafarers＇ competence assessment.

A Ship Officer Performance Evaluation Model Using Fuzzy-AHP

A ship＇s crew plays an important role in the maritime transportation sector and their performance is paramont in the shipping industry. On this account, an impartial evaluation of the crew＇s performance is an important issue. In this paper, the ship officer＇s performance evaluation problem is studied. The performance evaluation criteria that shipping companies take into account are determined and a performance evaluation process is modelled by using the FAHP （Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process） based on Chang＇s Algorithm. Linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers are used in the assessment process. The results of the proposed model demonstrate that the FAHP method is effective and helps managers make better and more reliable decisions under fuzzy circumstances.

The FAHP-based Risk Assessment in the Conclusion of Equipment Procurement Contract

The risk assessment of contract conclusion is the primary and key part of equipment purchase contract risk management. In this paper, based on the fuzzy characteristics of contract risks, and overcoming the traditional disadvantages of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） of contract conclusion is proposed for meeting the actual need of equipment procurement contract risk assessment, and implementing the risk factors qualitative and quantitative assessments of different working nodes in contract conclusion. Thus, a scientific and reliable important basis is provided for the risk management of equipment procurement contract.

The Implementation Effects of a Nationwide Sloping Farmland Soil Erosion Control Project in China

To understand implementation of a nationwide sloping farmland soil erosion comprehensive control project during China＇s 12 th Five-Year Plan we used data collection and expert consultation. We selected 24 indexes across three aspects including project management, engineering construction and implementation benefit and used AHP-grey correlation analysis methods. We found that the scores for engineering construction were greater than 0.65 in most of the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. These scores are high and scores for project management and implementation benefit are between 0.45–0.65; however, overall scores are low. The comprehensive evaluation results are normally distributed. The composite scores for Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou are 0.71, 0.68 and 0.68 respectively, indicating that the implementation effects are good. The scores for Jilin and Liaoning are 0.38 and 0.42 respectively, indicating that the implementation effects need improvement. Scores for other provinces are between 0.45–0.65 and the effects are medium. The evaluation results show certain zonal rules spatially and the implementation effect in karst regions of Southwest China is the highest, followed by the purple soil region in Southwest China, Loess Plateau region of Northwest China, earth-rock mountain region of North China and red soil hilly region of South China. The implementation effect in the black soil region of Northeast China suggests that improvement is needed in this region.