基于分布式水文模型的小流域山洪预报方法与应用

无资料小流域山洪预报一直是流域洪水预报中面临的复杂难题。本文将引入基于新安江水文模型建立的分布式混合产流水文模型(Grid-and-Mixed-runoff-generation-and-Kinematic-wave-based Hydrological Model,GMKHM),研究无资料小流域山洪预报方法,并将GMKHM模型与DEM(Digital Elevation Model)、RS技术相结合,以DEM栅格为计算单元,在栅格内进行植被冠层截留、蒸(散)发、产流与分水源计算;流域产流采用混合产流模型计算,坡面汇流和河道汇流均采用基于栅格单元的分布式运动波模型水流演算,将GMKHM模型和分布式新安江水文模型同时应用于2009年汛期嘉陵江乔庄河支流大沟小流域山洪预报试验。结果表明,两个分布式水文模型的模拟预报精度较高,均可用于该流域山洪预报,其中GMKHM分布式水文模型在洪峰模拟上稍好于分布式新安江水文模型。

Debris Flow Formation Process and Critical Hydrodynamic Conditions in the Meizoseismal Area of the Wenchuan Earthquake

Abstract： The Wenchuan earthquake generated strong surface disturbances and triggered a large number of loose deposits, resulting in the disaster- prone environment with special watershed hydrological characteristics. This paper was to propose a debris flow formation process and explore the permeability characteristics and critical hydrodynamic conditions of the loose deposits triggered by the earthquake. The Guo Juanyan gully （31005＇27＂ N to 31005＇46＂ N, 103036＇58＂ E to 103037＇09＂ E） in Du Jiangyan City, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, was chosen as the study area and the disaster-prone environment was analyzed. The formation process of the debris flow was first proposed using a stability analysis, and then, the permeability characteristics of loose deposits were determined via in situ permeability experiments. Finally, the critical 1 h rainfall was simulated through a distributed hydrological model and verified by field observations. The formation process of debris flow could be divided into three stages based on the relationship between the hydrodynamic force and loose deposit resistance. The critical 1 h rainfall amounts under three antecedent moisture conditions （I-dry, Ⅱ-normal and Ⅲ-wet） were 52 mm/h, 43 mm/h and 34 mm/h, respectively. This study proposed a debris flow formation process in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake based on the stability analysis and defined the rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning at the local level, which is significant for debris flow mitigation and risk management.

A Study on the Effects of the Surrounding Faults on Water Loss in the Zoige Wetland,China

The Zoige wetland is the biggest alpine wetland in the world,and an important water resource of the Yellow River.Due to natural and human factors,the Zoige wetland has been seriously degraded.Existing studies on the Zoige wetland mainly focus on the macro features of the wetland,while the influence of the surrounding faults on the Zoige wetland degradation is rarely studied.This study uses terrain data to analyze the cover change and the water loss caused by the Wqie-Seji fault based on the distributed hydrological model.The simulated water loss demonstrates that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) is the most important factor for inducing water loss.The fault is also a factor that cannot be neglected,which has caused 33% of the wetland water loss.Therefore,it is of importance to study the influence of the fault on the wetland degradation.

Regimes of Runoff Components on the Debris-covered Koxkar Glacier in Western China

By using a degree-day based distributed hydrological model, regimes of glacial runoff from the Koxkar glacier during 2007-2011 are simulated, and variations and characteristics of major hydrological components are discussed. The results show that the meltwater runoff contributes 67.4%, of the proglacial discharge, out of which snowmelt, clean ice melting, buried-ice ablation and ice-cliff backwasting account for 22.4%, 21.9%, 17.9% and 5.3% of the total melt runoff, respectively. Rainfall runoff is significant in mid-latitude glacierized mountain areas like Tianshan and Karakorum. In the Koxkar glacier catchment, about 11.5% of stream water is initiated from liquid precipitation. Spatial distributions for each glacial runoff component reveal the importance of climatic gradients, local topography and morphology on glacial runoff generation, and temporal variations of these components is closely related to the annual cycle of catchment meteorology and glacier storage. Four stages are recognized in the seasonal variations of glacier storage, reflecting changes in meltwater yields, meteorological conditions and drainage systems in the annual hydrological cycle.

Full 2D Hydrodynamic Modelling of Rainfall-induced Flash Floods

Mountain catchments are prone to flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Enhanced understanding of the generation and evolution processes of flash floods is essential for effective flood risk management. However, traditional distributed hydrological models based on kinematic and diffusion wave approximations ignore certain physical mechanisms of flash floods and thus bear excessive uncertainty. Here a hydrodynamic model is presented for flash floods based on the full two-dimensional shallow water equations incorporating rainfall and infiltration. Laboratory experiments of overland flows were modelled to illustrate the capability of the model. Then the model was applied to resolve two observed flash floods of distinct magnitudes in the Lengkou catchment in Shanxi Province, China. The present model is shown to be able to reproduce the flood flows fairly well compared to the observed data. The spatial distribution of rainfall is shown to be crucial for the modelling of flash floods. Sensitivity analyses of the model parameters reveal that the stage and discharge hydrographs are more sensitive to the Manning roughness and initial water content in the catchment than to the Green-Ampt head. Most notably, as the flash flood augments due to heavier rainfall, the modelling results agree with observed data better, which clearly characterizes the paramount role of rainfall in dictating the floods. From practical perspectives, the proposed model is more appropriate for modelling large flash floods.

Discretization Approach in Integrated Hydrologic Model for Surface and Groundwater Interaction

The commonly used discretization approaches for distributed hydrological models can be broadly categorized into four types,based on the nature of the discrete components:Regular Mesh,Triangular Irregular Networks(TINs),Representative Elementary Watershed(REWs) and Hydrologic Response Units(HRUs).In this paper,a new discretization approach for landforms that have similar hydrologic properties is developed and discussed here for the Integrated Hydrologic Model(IHM),a combining simulation of surface and groundwater processes,accounting for the interaction between the systems.The approach used in the IHM is to disaggregate basin parameters into discrete landforms that have similar hydrologic properties.These landforms may be impervious areas,related areas,areas with high or low clay or organic fractions,areas with significantly different depths-to-water-table,and areas with different types of land cover or different land uses.Incorporating discrete landforms within basins allows significant distributed parameter analysis,but requires an efficient computational structure.The IHM integration represents a new approach interpreting fluxes across the model interface and storages near the interface for transfer to the appropriate model component,accounting for the disparate discretization while rigidly maintaining mass conservation.The discretization approaches employed in IHM will provide some ideas and insights which are helpful to those researchers who have been working on the integrated models for surface-groundwater interaction.

Distributed Modeling of Extraterrestrial Solar Radiation Over the Rugged Terrains of Pakistan

In Pakistan,the solar analogue has been addressed but its surface geographical parameterization has given least attention.Inappropriate density of stations and their spatial coverage particularly in difficult peripheral national territories,little or no solar radiation data,non-satisfactory sunshine hours data,and low quality of ground observed cloud cover data create a situation in which the spatial modeling of Extraterrestrial Solar Radiation(ESR) and its ground parameterization got sufficient scope.The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) input into Geographic Information System (GIS) is a compatible tool to demonstrate the spatial distribution of ESR over the rugged terrains of the study domain.For the first time,distributed modeling of ESR is done over the rugged terrains of Pakistan,based on DEM and ArcGIS..Results clearly depict that the complex landforms profoundly disrupt the zonal distribution of ESR in Pakistan.The screening impact of topography is higher on spatial distribution of ESR in winter and considerably low in summer.The combined effect of topography and latitude is obvious.Hence,the model was further testified by plotting Rb (ratio of ESR quantity over rugged terrain against plane surface) against azimuth at different latitudes with different angled slopes.The results clearly support the strong screening effect of rugged terrain through out the country especially in Himalayas,Karakoram and Hindukush (HKH),western border mountains and Balochistan Plateau.This model can be instrumental as baseline geospatial information for scientific investigations in Pakistan,where substantial fraction of national population is living in mountainous regions.

Inference of Reference Conditions for Nutrient Concentrations of Chaohu Lake Based on Model Extrapolation

In the mid-eastern China,there are few or no lakes which are in the absence of anthropogenic disturbances,or their sediments remain undisturbed.As a result,the reference lakes distribution and paleolimnological reconstruction approaches usually are inappropriate to estimate lake reference conditions for nutrients.This yields the necessity of using the extrapolation methods to estimate the lake reference conditions for nutrients within those regions.The lake reference conditions for nutrients could be inferred inversely from the law of mass conservation,current lake nutrient concentration,and the loadings from watershed.Considering the scarcity of hydrological and water quality data associated with lakes and watersheds in China,as well as the low requirement of the watershed nutrient loadings models for these data,the soil conservation service(SCS) distributed hydrological model and the universal soil loss equation(USLE) were applied.The SCS model simulates the runoff process of the watershed,thereby calculating dissolved nutrients annually.The USLE estimates the soil erosion and particulate nutrients annually in a watershed.Then,with the loadings from atmospheric deposition and point source,the previous annual average nutrient concentrations could be acquired given the current nutrient concentrations in a lake.Therefore,the nutrient reference conditions minimally impacted by human activities could be estimated.Based on the proposed model,the reference conditions for total nitrogen and total phosphorus of Chaohu Lake,Anhui Province,China are 0.031 mg/L and 0.640 mg/L,respectively.The proposed reference conditions estimation model is of clear physical concept,and less data required.Thus,the proposed approach can be used in other lakes with similar circumstances.

Application of Developed Grid-GA Distributed Hydrologic Model in Semi-Humid and Semi-Arid Basin

A grid and Green-Ampt based （Grid-GA）distributed hydrologic physical model was developed for flood simulation and forecasting in semi-humid and semi-arid basin. Based on topographical information of each grid cell extracted fi＇om the digital elevation model （DEM） and Green-Ampt infiltration method, the Grid-GA model takes into consideration the redistribution of water content, and consists of vegetation and root interception, evapotranspiration, runoff generation via the excess infiltration mechanism, runoff concentration, and flow routing. The downslope redis- tribution of soil moisture is explicitly calculated on a grid basis, and water exchange among grids within runoff routing along the river drainage networks is taken into consideration. The proposed model and Xin＇anjiang model were ap- plied to the upper Lushi basin in the Luohe River, a tributary of the Yellow River, with an area of 4 716 km2 for flood simulation. Results show that both models perform well in flood simulation and can be used for flood forecasting in semi-humid and semi-arid region.

Effects of Spatial Information of Soil Physical Properties on Hydrological Modeling Based on a Distributed Hydrological Model

The spatial distribution of soil physical properties is essential for modeling and understanding hydrological processes. In this study, the different spatial information (the conventional soil types map-based spatial information (STMB) versus refined spatial information map (RSIM)) of soil physical properties, including field capacity, soil porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity are used respectively as input data for Water Flow Model for Lake Catchment (WATLAC) to determine their effectiveness in simulating hydrological processes and to expound the effects on model performance in terms of estimating groundwater recharge, soil evaporation, runoff generation as well as partitioning of surface and subsurface water flow. The results show that: 1) the simulated stream flow hydrographs based on the STMB and RSIM soil data reproduce the observed hydrographs well. There is no significant increase in model accuracy as more precise soil physical properties information being used, but WATLAC model using the RSIM soil data could predict more runoff volume and reduce the relative runoff depth errors; 2) the groundwater recharges have a consistent trend for both cases, while the STMB soil data tend to produce higher groundwater recharges than the RSIM soil data. In addition, the spatial distribution of annual groundwater recharge is significantly affected by the spatial distribution of soil physical properties; 3) the soil evaporation simulated using the STMB and RSIM soil data are similar to each other, and the spatial distribution patterns are also insensitive to the spatial information of soil physical properties; and 4) although the different spatial information of soil physical properties does not cause apparent difference in overall stream flow, the partitioning of surface and subsurface water flow is distinct. The implications of this study are that the refined spatial information of soil physical properties does not necessarily contribute to a more accurate prediction of stream flow, and the selection of appropriate soil physical property data needs to consider the scale of watersheds and the level of accuracy required.

Effects of Terrain Morphology Model on Excess Water Inundation and Phosphorus Transport Modeling

An integrated hydrological model has been applied for a rural-urban catchment of the Szamos-Kraszna interfluve geographic area, using the WateRisk integrated hydrological model system. The aim of the hydrological simulations was to identify the role that the relief plays in the water coverage formation process, and to highlight the possible consequences of it on phosphorus transport processes. To support this aim, the rainfall-runoff and the one-dimensional flow routing modules have been modelled, and maximal water cover has been calculated. Measured water coverage data by remote sensing have been compared to calculated maximum water cover in several ways. Results support the existing perspective on excess water formation namely that the process is very complex, therefore, the coincidence of the locations of measured water cover with calculated maximum water cover based on the DEM （digital elevation model） and the river network is low. Analysis shows that as far as the larger depressions of the area are concerned, the error of the DEM is not high, but it is likely that at locations with small altitude differences, the error of DEM can cause larger errors. The results foreshadow the importance of the micro relief of the area on phosphorus transport.

Effects of Erosion Control Measures on Mountain Floods： A Case Study of the Censhui River South Branch Watershed

To investigate the effects of various erosion control measures on mountain floods, a case study was conducted in Censhui River South Branch Watershed using scenario analysis and soil conservation service （SCS） methods. A distributed hydrological model was developed, and watershed parameters were determined based on satellite imagery, digital terrain models, digital maps and field investigations. Two types of erosion control measures were investigated： the variation of vegetation covers and the change of cultivation techniques. Seven scenarios were considered for the test watershed. The results show： （1） while the de-vegetation results in the increase of peak discharge, the improve of vegetation covers decreases peak discharge at watershed scale; （2） by both improving vegetation cover and enhancing terrace-cultivation technology, the peak discharge is reduced and the peak flow arrival time is delayed; （3） attention should be attached to both early warning system and measures changing the underlying surface and conveyance systems.

Decentralized Mobile SNS Architecture and Its Personal Information Management Mechanism

Mobile SNS popular topics of mobile is one of the most Internet. In order to fulfill the user demand for self-maintained independent social network and ensure the privacy of their personal information and resources, the paper proposes system architecture of decentralized mobile SNS.In the temporary scenarios, the system makes use of the existent specification of FOAF （Friend- of-a-Friend） to describe users＇ personal information and act as a certificate to be identified by SNS sites. Ticket-based Access Authorization System （TAAS） is provided to grant permission to acquire resources on personal portal. Meanwhile, the mechanism and algorithm are devised for user profile complete deletion when users are going to quit the service for the temporary scenarios.

Distributed Estimation and Analysis of Precipitation Recharge Coefficient in Strongly-exploited Beijing Plain Area, China

The precipitation recharge coefficient(PRC), representing the amount of groundwater recharge from precipitation, is an important parameter for groundwater resources evaluation and numerical simulation. It was usually obtained from empirical knowledge and site experiments in the 1980 s. However, the environmental settings have been greatly modified from that time due to land use change and groundwater over-pumping, especially in the Beijing plain area(BPA). This paper aims to estimate and analyze PRC of BPA with the distributed hydrological model and GIS for the year 2011 with similar annual precipitation as long-term mean. It is found that the recharge from vertical(precipitation + irrigation) and precipitation is 291.0 mm/yr and 233.7 mm/yr, respectively, which accounts for 38.6% and 36.6% of corresponding input water. The regional mean PRC is 0.366, which is a little different from the traditional map. However, it has a spatial variation ranging from –7.0% to 17.5% for various sub-regions. Since the vadose zone is now much thicker than the evaporation extinction depth, the land cover is regarded as the major dynamic factor that causes the variation of PRC in this area due to the difference of evapotranspiration rates. It is suggested that the negative impact of reforestation on groundwater quantity within BPA should be well investigated, because the PRC beneath forestland is the smallest among all land cover types.

A distributed software architecture design framework based on attributed grammar

Software architectures shift the focus of developers from lines-of-code to coarser-grained architectural elements and their overall interconnection structure. There are, however, many features of the distributed software that make the developing methods of distributed software quite different from the traditional ways. Furthermore, the traditional centralized ways with fixed interfaces cannot adapt to the flexible requirements of distributed software. In this paper, the attributed grammar (AG) is extended to refine the characters of distributed software, and a distributed software architecture description language (DSADL) based on attributed grammar is introduced, and then a model of integrated environment for software architecture design is proposed. It can be demonstrated by the practice that DSADL can help the programmers to analyze and design distributed software effectively, so the efficiency of the development can be improved greatly.

On the Regional Enlarged Observability for Linear Parabolic Systems

In this paper, we study the notion of the enlarged observability for distributed parabolic systems, where the aim is to reconstruct the initial state between two prescribed profiles P1 and P2 in an internal subregion c0 of the evolution domain f2. We give some definitions and properties of this concept, and then we solve the problem of the reconstruction of initial state using the Hilbert Uniqueness Method （HUM）. This leads to several interesting results which are performed through numerical example and simulations.

TransJ： An Abstract Independent-Framework for Weaving Crosscutting Concern into Distributed Transactions

Implementing crosscutting concerns for transactions is difficult, even using aspect-oriented programming languages such as AspectJ. Many of these challenges arise because the context of a transaction-related crosscutting concern consists of loosely-coupled abstractions like dynamically-generated identifiers, timestamps, and tentative value sets of distributed resources. Current aspect-oriented programming languages do not provide joinpoints and pointcuts for weaving advice into high-level abstractions or contexts, like transaction contexts. To address these problems, we propose an extension to AspectJ framework, called TransJ, that allows developers to define pointcuts in terms of transaction abstractions and that automatically keeps track of context information for transactions. This paper describes TransJ as an abstract independent framework for weaving crosscutting concerns into high-level runtime abstractions, with which developers can implement transaction-related crosscutting concerns in modular, cohesive and loosely coupled transaction-aware aspects. Finally, this paper presents eight different ways in which TransJ can improve the reuse with preserving the performance of applications requiring transactions. Informally, these hypotheses are that TransJ yields （1） better encapsulation and separation of concern; （2） looser coupling and less scattering; （3） higher cohesion and less tangling; （4） reduces complexity; （5） improves obliviousness; （6） preserves efficiency; （7） improves extensibility; and （8） hastens the productivity. A brief discussion of experiment to test the hypotheses is provided, but the details of the experiment are left for another paper.

A Distributed Time-Variant Gain Hydrological Model Based on Remote Sensing

提出了一个完全采用遥感数据驱动的分布式时变增益水文模型,该模型通过融雪、产汇流等水文过程计算,给出流量的雪盖、蒸散发、径流等水文要素。在拉萨河流域,该模型采用遥感USGS-SRTM的3秒DEM、遥感TRMM(The Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission)降水、Modis-LST(Land Surface Temperature)数据,建立分布式水文模型,模拟了2001-2008年日水文过程。模拟结果效率系数接近0.7,相关系数接近0.8,水量平衡误差5%以内。说明完全依靠遥感驱动水文模型进行水文水资源模拟可行。该模型为解决高寒山区无资料或缺资料地区水文水资源问题提供了一个新方法。

云计算环境下的网络信息资源管理

在概括云计算基本原理及其特点的基础上,探讨了云计算技术的发展带给网络信息资源开发与利用的新模式,分析了此模型的理论价值与实际意义。

River management system development in Asia based on Data Integration and Analysis System(DIAS) under GEOSS

This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative （AWCI）. The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical infor- mation, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model （WEB-DHM） that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assess- ment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected ba- sins at the Data Integration and Analysis System （DIAS） of Japan and demonstration projects were carded out showing poten- tial of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here.