进境中国台湾十字花科蔬菜有害生物风险分析

本文收集了关于中国台湾地区进境十字花科蔬菜有害生物种类、发生与分布、生物学特性、经济重要性等方面的文献资料,并对其进行整理分析和风险评估,筛选出了大陆应关注的有害生物名录,并提出了相应的降低风险的措施和检验检疫要求。

兖矿集团煤化工产业多项目管理的组织风险分析与识别

提出兖矿集团煤化工产业多项目管理组织风险的问题,并从各个方面进行了较详细的分析与识别,认为兖矿集团煤化工多项目的管理应制定适合企业发展的多项目管理风险控制机制。

风险分析在动物性食品安全管理中的应用及预警机制的建立

通过对分险分析内涵、本质特征的探讨,认识了分险分析在动物性食品安全管理中应用的必要性,并就建立动物性食品安全管理预警机制提出建议,以为保障动物性食品安全提供参考。

上海港外高桥航段特点、航行风险分析与对策

外高桥航段为整个长江水道通航密度最大、船舶动态最复杂的水域,其上接黄浦江和长江航道,下连南北槽航道,北侧是上海港最大最优良的锚地,南岸是上海港船舶靠离泊最频繁的集装箱港区,所有进出上海港和长江上游的船舶,都在此汇集、融合、分流,因而也是整个长江水道风险最高的航段,对该水域进行船舶态势和航行风险分析,并提出相应的对策,有利于该水域内船舶的航行安全,以及附近码头的安全高效生产。

Is it possible to differentiate gastric GISTs from gastric leiomyomas by EUS?

AIM: To evaluate the ultrasonog raphy (EUS) features of gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) as compared with gastric leiomyomas and then to determine the EUS features that could predict malignant GISTs.METHODS: We evaluated the endoscopic EUS features in 53 patients with gastric mesenchymal tumors conf irmed by histopathologic diagnosis. The GISTs were classif ied into benign and malignant groups according to the histological risk classif ication.RESULTS: Immunohistochemical analyses demon-strated 7 leiomyomas and 46 GISTs. Inhomogenicity, hyperechogenic spots, a marginal halo and higher echogenicity as compared with the surrounding muscle layer appeared more frequently in the GISTs than in the leiomyomas (P < 0.05). The presence of at least two of these four features had a sensitivity of 89.1% and a specifi city of 85.7% for predicting GISTs. Except for tumor size and irregularity of the border, most of the EUS features were not helpful for predicting the malignant potential of GISTs. On multivariate analysis, only the maximal diameter of the GISTs was an independent predictor. The optimal size for predicting malignant GISTs was 35 mm. The sensitivity and specificity using this value were 92.3% and 78.8%, respectively.CONCLUSION: EUS may help to differentiate gastric GISTs from gastric leiomyomas. Once GISTs are suspected, surgery should be considered if the size is greater than 3.5 cm.

Establishment and optimization of project investment risk income models on the basis of probability χ distribution

In this paper, two kinds of models are presented and optimized for project investment risk income on the basis of probability χ distribution. One kind of model being proved has only a maximal value and another kind being proved has no extreme values.

An optimal incentive contract to venture capitalist

This paper aims to study the principal-agent relationship between investors and venture capitalists （VCs）, makes research on the moral hazard issues under this relationship, and how to design an effective incentive mechanism to avoid it. By constructing a new incentive model, this paper provides the reference for investors to establish a reasonable payment contract. The designed incentive contract is a kind of dominant consecutive payment mode, which plays a strong incentive role to the VCs, in addition, it also requires the VCs to invest certain capital to the project, which can effectively prevent the slapdash action of VCs, and reduce the agent cost of investors.

Landslide hazards mapping using uncertain Na?ve Bayesian classification method

Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in Loess terrains. Aiming at major issues with these landslide hazard assessment methods based on Naive Bayesian classification technique, which is difficult in quantifying those uncertain triggering factors, the main purpose of this work is to evaluate the predictive power of landslide spatial models based on uncertain Naive Bayesian classification method in Baota district of Yan＇an city in Shaanxi province, China. Firstly, thematic maps representing various factors that are related to landslide activity were generated. Secondly, by using field data and GIS techniques, a landslide hazard map was performed. To improve the accuracy of the resulting landslide hazard map, the strategies were designed, which quantified the uncertain triggering factor to design landslide spatial models based on uncertain Naive Bayesian classification method named NBU algorithm. The accuracies of the area under relative operating characteristics curves（AUC） in NBU and Naive Bayesian algorithm are 87.29% and 82.47% respectively. Thus, NBU algorithm can be used efficiently for landslide hazard analysis and might be widely used for the prediction of various spatial events based on uncertain classification technique.

Prediction value of high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia for prostate cancer on repeat biopsies

Objective: The significance of isolated high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in initial biopsy as an predic-tor for prostate cancer has been extensively research, and the true relationship remnant is no clear till now. The aim of this study is to evaluate prediction value of cancer on repeat biopsy in patients with high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia, using multivariate analysis. Methods: Thirty-eight men with a diagnosis of isolated high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neo-plasia in initial needle biopsy were studies, in the Fist Affiliated Hospital of Medical School of Xi'an Jiaotong University, from January 2003 to March 2009. These samples were using immunostaining of p63 and 34βE12 and P504s, with a median fol-low-up of 525 (range, 7 to 1650) days, and to researched the incidence of subsequent prostate cancer, and to predicted the risk of prostate cancer in clinicopathological parameters of isolated high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia on repeat biopsies by logistic regression analysis. Results: There were 10 of 38 (26.3%) men with prostate cancer on repeat biopsies after diagnosis isolated high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in initial biopsy, of the rates of prostate cancer were 80% for micropapillary and 75% for cribriform high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (P < 0.05), respectively. The positive cores of isolated high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia was the important for the risk of prostate cancer using Multi-factor logistic regression analysis. The time range in 30 to 690 days was stronger risk for prostate cancer detection after diagnosis isolated HGPIN in initial biopsy. p63 and 34βE12 were disrupted positive expression, and P504S was weak posi-tive expression in the 61% isolated high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia. Conclusion: Isolated high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia on repeat biopsy conferred a 26.3% risk of prostate cancer, and this risk level is lower than the previ-ously reported risk of 24% to 58%. The number of positive cores and the histopathological pattern with high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia on initial biopsy was significantly associated with the risk of cancer.

非煤矿山企业变更管理流程与控制措施

变更管理是企业生产经营过程中经常遇到的问题,也是安全技术管理人员的实施难题。为改善企业生产条件,减少生产安全事故发生,保障生产安全、平稳、高效运行,提升变更管理成效,制定了项目变更应遵循的原则,并将风险矩阵定性分析法应用到变更管理过程中,降低了原有的一些评价方法(作业条件危险性分析法LEC、风险程度分析法MES等)量化指标的繁琐和实施工作难度,提升了员工参与的积极性,变更项目风险等级判定更加简捷、便利,同时规范了项目申请、方案编制、审批、实施及验收流程,明确了实施前的检查确认要求和实施过程中的控制措施,使变更管理流程化、系统化、标准化,较好地解决了变更管理不确定性所带来的不利因素,为矿山企业实施变更管理提供了有益的参考。

Safety of Dams： A Pathological Approach of Qualitative and Quantitative Risks

Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.

Logistic Regression for Prediction and Diagnosis of Bacterial Regrowth in Water Distribution System

This paper focuses on the quantitative expression of bacterial regrowth in water distribution system. Considering public health risks of bacterial regrowth,the experiment was performed on a distribution system of selected area.Physical,chemical,and microbiological parameters such as turbidity,temperature,residual chlorine and pH were measured over a three-month period and correlation analysis was carried out.Combined with principal components analysis(PCA) ,a logistic regression model is developed to predict and diagnose bacterial regrowth and locate the zones with high risks of microbiology in the distribution system.The model gives the probability of bacterial regrowth with the number of heterotrophic plate counts as the binary response variable and three new principal components variables as the explanatory variables.The veracity of the logistic regression model was 90%,which meets the precision requirement of the model.

Evaluation of Pesticide Residues in Mango by a Multi-residue Analysis and GC/MS Triple Quadrupole

Mango fruit has a great national and international market, and Brazilian production is 1,900 thousand tons/year exporting to North America and Europe. However, the loss could occur during the production when it is affected by pests and climate conditions, so the increased use of chemical substances and their presence should be monitored. A task for governmental agencies, producers and food sales, attending the sanitary barriers requirements, is to distribute food free from contaminants, so laboratories involved in this type of work usually employ multi-residues analysis. The objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of pesticide residues in mango using QuEChERS method and mass spectrometry technique. Positive samples were compared with Brazilian maximum residues level （MRL） and the health risk exposure was evaluated using the acute dietary intake （ADI） parameter. A total of 20 samples were collected from January to March, in Sao Paulo city markets. The recoveries were in the range of 70% to 120%, and standard deviation was below 20%. The category of pesticides not permitted for the crop were found in l0 samples; eight samples presented pesticides below MRL and two samples above MRL for the fungicide procloraz. The ADI values were below 20% of ADI for an adult and the worst case was dimethoate with 69% of ADI for children. The time spent in monitoring studies and the viability of method chosen must be considered by pesticide residues laboratories during routine analysis of food quality control.

Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

Real-time lane departure warning system based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution and risk evaluation model

A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.

Analysis on Completeness of Small Earthquake Data in the Northeast Seismic Zone and Its Influence on Seismicity Parameters

Taking the northeast seismic zone as an example and based on the magnitude-frequency distribution principles of the G-R relationship and the study on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum magnitude of completeness M C in each time interval,this paper makes a statistical analysis on the seismicity parameters of the research area and explores the influence of the completeness of small earthquake data on the seismicity parameters and seismic hazard analysis.It shows that the completeness analysis of the regional small earthquakes data provides a possible means for obtaining more accurate seismicity parameters that can better represent the actual regional seismicity level for areas of low seismicity.The research methods of this article and its conclusion can be used as a reference for the completeness analysis of earthquake data and seismic activity research.

Risk Analysis for Mega Shopping Mall Projects in Egypt

Mega shopping mall projects have seen dramatic growth and great development in recent years in Egypt. Many new mega shopping mall projects are under construction and expecting to start working in the few coming years. In the absence of researches studying the Egyptian mega shopping mall projects, this study tries to highlight the most critical risks that face these projects and the associated most effective response methods to be employed. The scope covers the analysis from different perspectives by including owners/developers, designers, consultants, project managers, and contractors that have previous experience in large-scale projects such as shopping mall projects. In this study, 30 construction project risks are classified into six main categories according to their type and 150 risk mitigation/elimination measures are introduced to overcome the impact of risks under each of these risk categories. The results reveal that the main risk category that faces the mega shopping mall projects in Egypt is the one including the financial risk factors. The most critical risk factor that faces these projects is the financial ability of the client. These results are similar to findings by previous researches conducted for large projects in other countries.

The Analysis of Chinese Basic Pension Funds into Capital Markets

That is a global issue to preserve and increase the value of pension funds, also has caused widespread concern of the governments around the world. China＇s basic pension funds are also facing the severe problem. In this background, The State Council issued ＂the Measures for the Administration of Investment in Basic Pension Insurance Funds＂, Basic Pension Funds into Capital Markers finally＂ have laws to go by ＂. To explore the basic pension funds into the market has a realistic social significance. Based on the SWOT analysis method, make a detailed analysis of the pension market from four aspects, put forward some views and hope that these opinions can provide reference for the sustainable development of China＇s basic pension fund system.

Reliability Optimization in the Islanded Mode of Microgrid

A microgrid is a combination of distributed energy resources and controllable loads. The main objective of this research is to optimize energy flow within a microgrid with regards to reliability in grid connected mode. A microgrid with combined heat and power, natural gas generator, diesel generator, solar energy, wind energy, and battery energy storage along with a critical load is considered in this research. An event oriented analytical method called FTA （fault trees analysis） is implemented for reliability optimization using PTC Windchill Solutions software in a microgrid. The reliability of each component in each energy source of the microgrid is calculated using FTA. The reliability of the critical load is evaluated. The quantitative and qualitative results of FTA are evaluated in order to interpret the results of fault tree. The sensitivity and uncertainty of the fault tree results for critical load is deduced by calculating the importance measures such as risk achievement worth, risk reduction worth, criticality importance and Fussel-Vesely importance. Finally from the results the components that are sensitive and at high risk are deduced.

THE 'HYBRID' TECHNIQUE FOR RISK ANALYSIS OF SOME DISEASES

Based on the data obtained from a survey recently made in Shanghai, this paper presents the hybrid technique for risk analysis and evaluation of some diseases. After determination of main risk factors of these diseases by analysis of variance, the authors introduce a new concept ’Illness Fuzzy Set’ and use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the risk of suffering from a disease for residents. Optimal technique is used to determine the weights wi in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and a new method ’Improved Information Distribution’ is also introduced for the treatment of small sample problem. It is shown that the results obtained by using the hybrid technique are better than by using single fuzzy technique or single statistical method.