Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks tha...Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.展开更多
Getting the right people in the right place at the right time has always been a major organizational challenge. In ancient times this process seems to have been accomplished based on the scheme of arrangements being c...Getting the right people in the right place at the right time has always been a major organizational challenge. In ancient times this process seems to have been accomplished based on the scheme of arrangements being contained in the leader＇s mind and instructions communicated verbally. Modem approaches to solving the twin challenges of first thinking through the ＇plan＇ and then communicating the plan to the people who need to do ＇the right work, at the right time, in the right place＇ use sophisticated graphics, charts, diagrams, and computa- tions. This paper traces the development of the concepts most project managers take for granted including bar charts and critical path schedules from their origins （which are far earlier than most people think） through to the modem day. The first section of the paper looks at the development of concepts that allow the visualization of time and other data. The second looks at the shift from static representations to dynamic modeling through the emergence of computers, dynamic calculations and integrated data from the 1950s to the present time.展开更多
While trauma registries provide the mechanisms to collect comprehensive, timely and accurate data related to the injuries and evaluate trauma care systems, they have not been established in most developing countries. ...While trauma registries provide the mechanisms to collect comprehensive, timely and accurate data related to the injuries and evaluate trauma care systems, they have not been established in most developing countries. On the other hand, in complex projects that have large aims, a logical framework approach （LFA） can help summarize and describe the multiple branches of the project systematically, and elucidate the main goals, extensive objectives, activities and expected outcomes. Therefore a LFA can be used to design and guide trauma registry project management, to integrate the cultural, clinical and capacity variations among countries; and to ensure early alignment of the project＇s design and evaluation.展开更多
文摘Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.
文摘Getting the right people in the right place at the right time has always been a major organizational challenge. In ancient times this process seems to have been accomplished based on the scheme of arrangements being contained in the leader＇s mind and instructions communicated verbally. Modem approaches to solving the twin challenges of first thinking through the ＇plan＇ and then communicating the plan to the people who need to do ＇the right work, at the right time, in the right place＇ use sophisticated graphics, charts, diagrams, and computa- tions. This paper traces the development of the concepts most project managers take for granted including bar charts and critical path schedules from their origins （which are far earlier than most people think） through to the modem day. The first section of the paper looks at the development of concepts that allow the visualization of time and other data. The second looks at the shift from static representations to dynamic modeling through the emergence of computers, dynamic calculations and integrated data from the 1950s to the present time.
文摘While trauma registries provide the mechanisms to collect comprehensive, timely and accurate data related to the injuries and evaluate trauma care systems, they have not been established in most developing countries. On the other hand, in complex projects that have large aims, a logical framework approach （LFA） can help summarize and describe the multiple branches of the project systematically, and elucidate the main goals, extensive objectives, activities and expected outcomes. Therefore a LFA can be used to design and guide trauma registry project management, to integrate the cultural, clinical and capacity variations among countries; and to ensure early alignment of the project＇s design and evaluation.
