A set of methods designed to improve （i.e.extend） the medium-term forecasting of persistent severe rainfall （PSR） events in China using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model are summarized.Simulation...A set of methods designed to improve （i.e.extend） the medium-term forecasting of persistent severe rainfall （PSR） events in China using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model are summarized.Simulations show that achieving a more efficient use of large-scale atmospheric variations of the global model and retaining small-scale features in the regional model are critical for better forecasting PSR events.For precipitation,the larger the magnitude and longer the lead time,the more significant the improvement-especially for the methods of spectral nudging and updated initial conditions.In terms of large-scale circulation,the anomaly correlation coefficient can be distinctly improved for 1-5-day lead times by adopting the spectral nudging technique,whereas lateral boundary filtering results in marked improvement for 7-11-day lead times.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Sci ence Foundation of China[grant number 41775097],[grant number 91437221]the National Key Basic Research Program of China[grant number 2012CB417204]the China Specia Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest[grant number GYHY201506002]
文摘A set of methods designed to improve （i.e.extend） the medium-term forecasting of persistent severe rainfall （PSR） events in China using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model are summarized.Simulations show that achieving a more efficient use of large-scale atmospheric variations of the global model and retaining small-scale features in the regional model are critical for better forecasting PSR events.For precipitation,the larger the magnitude and longer the lead time,the more significant the improvement-especially for the methods of spectral nudging and updated initial conditions.In terms of large-scale circulation,the anomaly correlation coefficient can be distinctly improved for 1-5-day lead times by adopting the spectral nudging technique,whereas lateral boundary filtering results in marked improvement for 7-11-day lead times.
