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意大利地区前震统计及其与地震预报的可能关系 被引量:1
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作者 R.Console M.Murru +2 位作者 B.Alessandrini 刘锡大 赵希俊 《世界地震译丛》 北大核心 1996年第5期22-30,共9页
本文主要讨论意大利国家地震台网1975年到1991年期间记录的地震序列的前震。我们认为前震是超过某一震级阈值的地震,它发生在一段平静期后和给定时距范围内的主震之前。该算法确定的潜在前震总数取决干预定的平静区的大小和持续时间,而... 本文主要讨论意大利国家地震台网1975年到1991年期间记录的地震序列的前震。我们认为前震是超过某一震级阈值的地震,它发生在一段平静期后和给定时距范围内的主震之前。该算法确定的潜在前震总数取决干预定的平静区的大小和持续时间,而由前震预测的主震数也取决于预报区的面积大小和预报期的持续时间。我们的目的是优选确定作为强震前兆的潜在前震的参数,以提高其真实性和可靠性。意大利全境的初步调查使我们能确定前震——主震序列可能发生的区域。其中之一是意大利中部的面积约32000 km^2的地区,该区有M≥2.5的地震2671次,并有在中等地震之后,近距离和短时间内发生较大地震的明显趋势。本文根据前震的优化定义——半径140km范围内经至少80天平静期后超过3级的地震,能提出63次预报。在圈定半径30km范围、在随后48小时内超过4级的主震发生比例为23次中有6次。相应的概率增量为150。作为对比,有M≥2.5地震453次的另一大地区(波河流域),比例为82次前兆中只有一次。该区大多数地震是孤立型主震。分析表明,可把前震活动当做明显的地震前兆,所以建议用地震活动性实时观测来提高预测系统的质量。 展开更多
关键词 地震前兆 地震预报 前震统计 意大利地区
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The Spatial-temporal Distribution and Their Statistical Characteristics of Foreshocks in the Yunnan Region
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作者 Zhao Xiaoyan Sun Nan Su Youjin 《Earthquake Research in China》 CSCD 2016年第2期166-176,共11页
We analyzed 223 earthquakes with M 1〉 5.0 that occurred in the Yunnan region during 1965 - 2014, among which 74 ( about 33. 2 % ) had foreshocks. There are great differences in foreshock populations in different te... We analyzed 223 earthquakes with M 1〉 5.0 that occurred in the Yunnan region during 1965 - 2014, among which 74 ( about 33. 2 % ) had foreshocks. There are great differences in foreshock populations in different tectonic blocks: the most abundant foreshocks occurred in the Lancang-Gengma and Tengchong-Baoshan blocks, which have the most abundant foreshocks in the Yunnan region. The predominant magnitude difference, time interval and spatial distance are 0. 5 -2. 9, within 10 days and within 20km, respectively. These characteristics can be used to forecast the mainshock after the identification of a foreshock. 展开更多
关键词 Yunnan region Foreshock Mainshock Magnitude difference
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Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Macroscopic Anomalies and Earthquakes
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作者 Lu Shuangling Qu Baoan +5 位作者 Cai Yin Zhang Ming Zhao Xiaohe Zhao Rui Yu Cheng Li Bo 《Earthquake Research in China》 CSCD 2015年第4期539-553,共15页
Macroscopic anomalies from"Earthquake Cases in China"are statistically analyzed in this paper. The conclusion is as follows: The probability of occurrence of macroscopic anomalies before earthquakes increase... Macroscopic anomalies from"Earthquake Cases in China"are statistically analyzed in this paper. The conclusion is as follows: The probability of occurrence of macroscopic anomalies before earthquakes increases with magnitude. The larger the earthquake magnitude, the more macroscopic anomalies appear. The temporal distribution of macroscopic anomalies is as follows: There are few macroscopic anomalies at beginning; as time goes on,the number of macroscopic anomalies increases; the increase of macroscopic anomaly quantity accelerates with the impending earthquake and reaches a climax when the earthquake breaks out. The spatial distribution pattern of macroscopic anomalies is as follows: macroscopic anomalies appear at the epicenter at the beginning,then spread out,and finally arise explosively at the epicenter area. 展开更多
关键词 Macroscopic anomaly Relationship with earthquake Animal anomaly Groundwater anomaly
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