鉴于功率预测评价对电力系统运行和调度的重要性,文章充分考虑电网调度实际需求,从不同时期下机组的出力大小和不同时段下电网调度对预测精度的需求2个方面分析现有功率预测评价指标的不合理之处,并提出了新的准确率指标。首先,对不同...鉴于功率预测评价对电力系统运行和调度的重要性,文章充分考虑电网调度实际需求,从不同时期下机组的出力大小和不同时段下电网调度对预测精度的需求2个方面分析现有功率预测评价指标的不合理之处,并提出了新的准确率指标。首先,对不同时期下系统灵活性进行计算得到灵活性矩阵并对其进行预处理;其次,将处理后的灵活性矩阵输入到优劣解距离法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)模型中,根据评价对象与理想化目标的接近程度对不同时段的灵活性进行排序和归一化计算,得到不同时段下的权重系数矩阵,进而形成新的评价指标;最后,将所提的评价指标与其他指标进行对比。仿真结果表明,所提评价指标更能体现系统灵活性对功率预测评价的影响,满足实际调度的需求。展开更多
A novel thennoelectric generating and performance measuring system (TGPMS) was designed and fabricated. TGPMS can not only achieve the function of thennoelectric generation, but also measure the thennoelectric perfo...A novel thennoelectric generating and performance measuring system (TGPMS) was designed and fabricated. TGPMS can not only achieve the function of thennoelectric generation, but also measure the thennoelectric performance parameters of the bismuth-telluride-based thennoelectric device accurately. These thennoelectric performance parameters mainly include the dependence of the Seebeck coefficient of the thennoelectric device on the device's temperature in the low temperature range (about 40 ~ 190~C ), and the dependence of the power output and thermoelectric conversion efficiency on the temperature dif- ference or output load. With the optimum load, the optimal value of the power output is 3.39W when the temperature difference reaches 231.2~C, and the optimal value of the conversion efficiency is 3.22% when the temperature difference reaches 208.9~C. TGPMS provides an experimental foundation for the application of the thennoelectric generators in the space field.展开更多
The article is research on the traffic situations of freeways. Different rules make different traffic situations. It is meaningful to research on traffic situations under different conditions. The author analyzes fac...The article is research on the traffic situations of freeways. Different rules make different traffic situations. It is meaningful to research on traffic situations under different conditions. The author analyzes factors like traffic flow and safety, peflbrmance respectively, and proposes the theor3, basis for making more reasonable rules. The author first establishes evaluation system of traffic safety. Then, we compare the freeway network to power network to find a solution. and establish a traffic flow model based on power flow (TFPF). It calculates power flow. So it applies the formula mode back to the traffic network, chalking up the perforumnce of the traffic condition. We utilize cellular automata (CA) method to simulate traffic circulation, and verify the accuracy of above model with the obtained data.展开更多
In the environment of space radiation, the high-energy charged particles or high-energy photons acting on a spacecraft can cause either temporary device degradation or permanent failure. The traditional probability mo...In the environment of space radiation, the high-energy charged particles or high-energy photons acting on a spacecraft can cause either temporary device degradation or permanent failure. The traditional probability model is difficult to obtain reliable estimation of unit radiation resistance performance with small samples. Considering that different products will change differently after high-energy particle radiation, we construct a model based on the gamma degradation process. This model can efficiently describe the law of unit radiation resistance variation with the total radiation dose levels under the effect of the total dose and displacement damage. Finally, the proposed model is used to assess the anti-radiation performance of the N-channel power MOSFET device STRH60N20FSY3 produced by STM to obtain average unit radiation resistance, survival probability, survival function, etc.展开更多
Geological disasters not only cause economic losses and ecological destruction, but also seriously threaten human survival. Selecting an appropriate method to evaluate susceptibility to geological disasters is an impo...Geological disasters not only cause economic losses and ecological destruction, but also seriously threaten human survival. Selecting an appropriate method to evaluate susceptibility to geological disasters is an important part of geological disaster research. The aims of this study are to explore the accuracy and reliability of multi-regression methods for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation, including Logistic Regression(LR), Spatial Autoregression(SAR), Geographical Weighted Regression(GWR), and Support Vector Regression(SVR), all of which have been widely discussed in the literature. In this study, we selected Yunnan Province of China as the research site and collected data on typical geological disaster events and the associated hazards that occurred within the study area to construct a corresponding index system for geological disaster assessment. Four methods were used to model and evaluate geological disaster susceptibility. The predictive capabilities of the methods were verified using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and the success rate curve. Lastly, spatial accuracy validation was introduced to improve the results of the evaluation, which was demonstrated by the spatial receiver operating characteristic(SROC) curve and the spatial success rate(SSR) curve. The results suggest that: 1) these methods are all valid with respect to the SROC and SSR curves, and the spatial accuracy validation method improved their modelling results and accuracy, such that the area under the curve(AUC) values of the ROC curves increased by about 3%–13% and the AUC of the success rate curve values increased by 15%–20%; 2) the evaluation accuracies of LR, SAR, GWR, and SVR were 0.8325, 0.8393, 0.8370 and 0.8539, which proved the four statistical regression methods all have good evaluation capability for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation and the evaluation results of SVR are more reasonable than others; 3) according to the evaluation results of SVR, the central-southern Yunnan Province are the highest sus-ceptibility areas and the lowest susceptibility is mainly located in the central and northern parts of the study area.展开更多
文摘鉴于功率预测评价对电力系统运行和调度的重要性,文章充分考虑电网调度实际需求,从不同时期下机组的出力大小和不同时段下电网调度对预测精度的需求2个方面分析现有功率预测评价指标的不合理之处,并提出了新的准确率指标。首先,对不同时期下系统灵活性进行计算得到灵活性矩阵并对其进行预处理;其次,将处理后的灵活性矩阵输入到优劣解距离法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)模型中,根据评价对象与理想化目标的接近程度对不同时段的灵活性进行排序和归一化计算,得到不同时段下的权重系数矩阵,进而形成新的评价指标;最后,将所提的评价指标与其他指标进行对比。仿真结果表明,所提评价指标更能体现系统灵活性对功率预测评价的影响,满足实际调度的需求。
基金the High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No2003AA005031)
文摘A novel thennoelectric generating and performance measuring system (TGPMS) was designed and fabricated. TGPMS can not only achieve the function of thennoelectric generation, but also measure the thennoelectric performance parameters of the bismuth-telluride-based thennoelectric device accurately. These thennoelectric performance parameters mainly include the dependence of the Seebeck coefficient of the thennoelectric device on the device's temperature in the low temperature range (about 40 ~ 190~C ), and the dependence of the power output and thermoelectric conversion efficiency on the temperature dif- ference or output load. With the optimum load, the optimal value of the power output is 3.39W when the temperature difference reaches 231.2~C, and the optimal value of the conversion efficiency is 3.22% when the temperature difference reaches 208.9~C. TGPMS provides an experimental foundation for the application of the thennoelectric generators in the space field.
文摘The article is research on the traffic situations of freeways. Different rules make different traffic situations. It is meaningful to research on traffic situations under different conditions. The author analyzes factors like traffic flow and safety, peflbrmance respectively, and proposes the theor3, basis for making more reasonable rules. The author first establishes evaluation system of traffic safety. Then, we compare the freeway network to power network to find a solution. and establish a traffic flow model based on power flow (TFPF). It calculates power flow. So it applies the formula mode back to the traffic network, chalking up the perforumnce of the traffic condition. We utilize cellular automata (CA) method to simulate traffic circulation, and verify the accuracy of above model with the obtained data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71371067&70901024)Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In the environment of space radiation, the high-energy charged particles or high-energy photons acting on a spacecraft can cause either temporary device degradation or permanent failure. The traditional probability model is difficult to obtain reliable estimation of unit radiation resistance performance with small samples. Considering that different products will change differently after high-energy particle radiation, we construct a model based on the gamma degradation process. This model can efficiently describe the law of unit radiation resistance variation with the total radiation dose levels under the effect of the total dose and displacement damage. Finally, the proposed model is used to assess the anti-radiation performance of the N-channel power MOSFET device STRH60N20FSY3 produced by STM to obtain average unit radiation resistance, survival probability, survival function, etc.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41571077,No.41171318The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘Geological disasters not only cause economic losses and ecological destruction, but also seriously threaten human survival. Selecting an appropriate method to evaluate susceptibility to geological disasters is an important part of geological disaster research. The aims of this study are to explore the accuracy and reliability of multi-regression methods for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation, including Logistic Regression(LR), Spatial Autoregression(SAR), Geographical Weighted Regression(GWR), and Support Vector Regression(SVR), all of which have been widely discussed in the literature. In this study, we selected Yunnan Province of China as the research site and collected data on typical geological disaster events and the associated hazards that occurred within the study area to construct a corresponding index system for geological disaster assessment. Four methods were used to model and evaluate geological disaster susceptibility. The predictive capabilities of the methods were verified using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and the success rate curve. Lastly, spatial accuracy validation was introduced to improve the results of the evaluation, which was demonstrated by the spatial receiver operating characteristic(SROC) curve and the spatial success rate(SSR) curve. The results suggest that: 1) these methods are all valid with respect to the SROC and SSR curves, and the spatial accuracy validation method improved their modelling results and accuracy, such that the area under the curve(AUC) values of the ROC curves increased by about 3%–13% and the AUC of the success rate curve values increased by 15%–20%; 2) the evaluation accuracies of LR, SAR, GWR, and SVR were 0.8325, 0.8393, 0.8370 and 0.8539, which proved the four statistical regression methods all have good evaluation capability for geological disaster susceptibility evaluation and the evaluation results of SVR are more reasonable than others; 3) according to the evaluation results of SVR, the central-southern Yunnan Province are the highest sus-ceptibility areas and the lowest susceptibility is mainly located in the central and northern parts of the study area.