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基于ARIMA模型的短时交通流量预测算法研究 被引量:10
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作者 张利 李星毅 施化吉 《郑州轻工业学院学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2008年第4期89-92,共4页
针对造成基于线性最小方差预报原理的Astrom算法在多步预测过程中误差逐步增大的原因,通过增加误差动态修正因子,提出一种改进的短时交通流量预测算法.该算法基于ARIMA模型结构的时间序列分析方法,采用矩估计法进行参数初估计,用最小二... 针对造成基于线性最小方差预报原理的Astrom算法在多步预测过程中误差逐步增大的原因,通过增加误差动态修正因子,提出一种改进的短时交通流量预测算法.该算法基于ARIMA模型结构的时间序列分析方法,采用矩估计法进行参数初估计,用最小二乘法进行参数精估计,用BIC准则为模型定阶.对大量实测数据进行仿真实验,对多个统计量进行误差分析.结果表明,改进算法在应用于时变性强的短时交通流量预测时,相对于Astrom算法具有更好的预测性能. 展开更多
关键词 时间序列预测 短时交通流预测 ARIMA模型 动态修正因子
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Thermal Fission Rate Calculated Numerically by Particles Multi-passing over SaddlePoint 被引量:3
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作者 LIULing BAOJing-Dong 《Communications in Theoretical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2004年第2期273-278,共6页
Langevin simulation of the particles multi-passing over the saddle point is proposed to calculate thermal fission rate. Due to finite friction and the corresponding thermal fluctuation, a backstreaming exists in the p... Langevin simulation of the particles multi-passing over the saddle point is proposed to calculate thermal fission rate. Due to finite friction and the corresponding thermal fluctuation, a backstreaming exists in the process of the particle descent from the saddle to the scission. This leads to that the diffusion behind the saddle point has influence upon the stationary flow across the saddle point. A dynamical correction factor, as a ratio of the flows of multi- and first-overpassing the saddle point, is evaluated analytically. The results show that the fission rate calculated by the particles multi-passing over the saddle point is lower than the one calculated by the particle firstly passing over the saddle point, and the former approaches the results at the scission point. 展开更多
关键词 Langevin simulation backstreaming effect multi-passing oven saddle point dynamical correction factor
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