县域土地利用变化分析

以温州市永嘉县 1990～ 1996年土地利用情况为研究内容 ,计算了有关土地利用的多种静态和动态指标 ,提出了新的土地利用动态量度的指标—结构转换度 ,并研究了各类土地利用及其变动与人口密度、经济发展之间的关系。图 1,表 4 ,参 3。

紫荆关流域土地利用变化

土地利用变化是当前全球变化研究的重要内容,利用1980年和2000年海河流域土地利用类型图,在GIS技术支持下,采用土地利用综合程度指数、综合土地利用动态度指数及土地利用转移矩阵的数学方法,研究分析紫荆关流域20 a间的土地利用变化过程。结果表明:流域内林草地面积增加,而耕地面积减少;土地利用变化的主要方向是向林草地转化,流域总体生态环境有良性发展态势。

Habitat evaluation for target species following deep-water channel project in the Yangtze River

In order to optimize the design of a 12.5 m deepwater channel project and protect the ecological environment, it is necessary to study the habitat evaluation of species in the engineered area. A coupled eco-hydrodynamic model, which combines a hydrodynamic model （ADCIRC） and a habitat suitability index （HSI） model is developed for target fish （Coilia nasus） and benthos （Corbicula fluminea） in the Yangtze River in order to predict the ecological changes and optimize the regulation scheme. Based on the existing research concerning the characteristics of Coilia nasus and Corbicula fluminea, the relationship between the target species and water environment factors is established. The verification results of tidal level, velocity and biological density show that the proposed coupling model performs well when predicting ecological suitability in the studied region. The results indicate a slight improvement in the potential habitat availability for the two species studied as the natural hydraulic conditions change after the deep-water channel regulation works.

基于分形理论的新疆土地利用空间格局分析

应用地理信息技术,提取基于遥感影像的新疆土地利用空间数据,通过分形模型,计算20世纪80年代末、90年代末和2005年3个时期各土地类型的分形维数和稳定性指数,定量分析其土地利用空间格局变化,并以此为依据,探讨各土地利用类型的复杂性和稳定性,同时结合土地利用变化动态度指数,探讨新疆土地利用空间格局变化的原因。结果表明:80年代末至2005年水域分形维数逐年增大,土地利用斑块形态不规则程度递增,并在空间上呈扩张趋势;但其稳定性呈逐年下降趋势。除水域外的其他各大土地利用类型,在80年代末至90年代末,其分形维数呈递增趋势,复杂性递增且达到最高点,土地利用斑块形态趋于不规则,空间上呈扩张趋势;而稳定性递减且达到最低点。90年代末至2005年分形维数呈递减趋势,土地利用斑块形态趋于规则,空间上呈缩小趋势,其稳定性呈逐渐增强趋势。

基于洪水过程的农业洪灾变化遥感快速评估模型及其应用

洪涝灾情的准确测度需要同时兼顾淹没区的面积大小和淹水时长信息。利用淹没区内由水和作物等多种地物所组成的"复合水体"不同于水体的波谱时间变化特性,将不同洪灾时期的水体指数和植被指数进行信息复合,以有效凸显水体和洪涝淹没区之间的影像差异,据此进行了灾初期、峰期和中后期等3个时次受淹范围的有效识别。在此基础上,根据洪涝灾情随着淹没时长而加重以及灾区内淹水时长非均匀分布的特性,建立基于淹没时长的受淹面积不等权参与的洪灾扩展动态度指数(Variation Index of Flood,VIF)和区域灾情比较指数(Comparison Index of Flood Disaster,CIFD)两种模型,并将模型应用于鄱阳湖区2016年夏季农业洪涝灾害的时空变化遥感监测。结果显示,应用上述两种模型不仅可以准确获取鄱阳湖区本次农业洪涝灾情的演变趋势,而且能够方便地对比分析区域内不同地方的受灾程度。鄱阳湖区在2016年6月23日~7月25日期间的洪涝灾情具有由弱增强再趋弱的特征,其VIF指数由初始阶段(6月23日~7月9日)的3.75降至后续阶段(7月9日~7月23日)的1.29;鄱阳县是研究区内受灾最严重的区域,其CIFD指数值居于研究区内各受灾县市之首,该县受灾总面积以及多次被淹的灾区面积均高于其他县市。

Analysis of some large-scale nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems with subspace-EPC method

The probabilistic solutions to some nonlinear stochastic dynamic (NSD) systems with various polynomial types of nonlinearities in displacements are analyzed with the subspace-exponential polynomial closure (subspace-EPC) method. The space of the state variables of the large-scale nonlinear stochastic dynamic system excited by Gaussian white noises is separated into two subspaces. Both sides of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation corresponding to the NSD system are then integrated over one of the subspaces. The FPK equation for the joint probability density function of the state variables in the other subspace is formulated. Therefore, the FPK equations in low dimensions are obtained from the original FPK equation in high dimensions and the FPK equations in low dimensions are solvable with the exponential polynomial closure method. Examples about multi-degree-offreedom NSD systems with various polynomial types of nonlinearities in displacements are given to show the effectiveness of the subspace-EPC method in these cases.

Dynamic Changes of the Bush Encroachment in Low Altitude Area of Ethiopia

Bush encroachment is widely distributed in arid and semi-arid regions, and it has a serious impact on livestock production, especially in Africa where livestock is a primary source for the livelihoods of many people. In this study, methods of supervised classification and decision tree classification, and indexes of a land use change significance index（Ci） and a single land use dynamic degree, were applied to remote sensing imagery of Ethiopia for 1986–2016. The results show the dynamic characteristics of grassland bush encroachment in low altitude areas（pastures 1500 m above sea level） of Ethiopia in the 30 year period studied. The results revealed several interesting features of this phenomenon.（1） The area of bush encroachment showed an increasing trend, with a maximum of 3.74×10^3 km^2 in 2003, which represented 68.97% of the total area, and declined slightly from 2003~2016.（2） Among classification types, the area of severe shrub grassland was the largest, accounting for 28.36–49.10% of the total area, while the area of moderate bush encroachment accounted for 9.77–16.68%, and slight bush encroachment accounted for 5.52–7.57%.（3） The expansion rate of shrubby grassland was 0.74% for the 30 year period, while the average annual expansion rate was 2.16% for the 8 years from 1995–2003.（4） Forest land and grassland were the two main land use types of shrub grassland transformation in low altitude areas and bush encroachment changed large amounts of forest land into grassland due to shrub grassland management. The results of this study provide basic data for revealing the impacts of development processes on subsequent bush encroachment and can inform better management for the sustainable development of grasslands in low altitude systems.