结合有效的水文预报信息对水库群优化调度在流域防洪与兴利效益之间的权衡具有指导意义。然而,水文预报信息的不确定性是防洪调度的主要风险源,故需要在水库群优化调度研究中考虑预见期–余留期两阶段的风险控制方法。本文针对两阶段方...结合有效的水文预报信息对水库群优化调度在流域防洪与兴利效益之间的权衡具有指导意义。然而,水文预报信息的不确定性是防洪调度的主要风险源,故需要在水库群优化调度研究中考虑预见期–余留期两阶段的风险控制方法。本文针对两阶段方法在水库群汛期优化调度中的运用问题,构建以发电效益最大为目标函数的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型,应用于澧水流域江垭、皂市水库群系统,研究结果表明:1) 通过考虑两阶段防洪风险约束,江垭和皂市水库坝前最高水位分别降低了1.37 m、2.63 m,优化调度方案有效降低了下游断面防洪风险;2) 在防洪风险可控的前提下,将水库群主汛期的发电量提高了11.59%。Combining effective hydrological forecast information is a guiding principle for optimal scheduling of reservoir complexes in terms of trade-offs between basin flood control and utilization benefits. Since the uncertainty of hydrological forecast information is the main source of flood control risk, it is necessary to consider the two-phase risk control method of foreseeable period and residual period in the study of optimal reservoir scheduling. This paper addresses the use of two-stage approach in real-time optimal scheduling of reservoir group flood season, and constructs a dynamic control model of reservoir group flood season operating water level with maximum power generation benefit as the objective function for Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoir group system in Lishui River Basin. The results show that: 1) by considering two-stage flood risk constraints, the maximum water levels of Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoirs are reduced by 1.37 m and 2.63 m, respectively. The optimal dispatching scheme effectively reduces the flood control risk of the downstream section;2) under the premise of controllable flood control risk, the power generation during the main flood season is increased by 11.59%.展开更多
文摘结合有效的水文预报信息对水库群优化调度在流域防洪与兴利效益之间的权衡具有指导意义。然而,水文预报信息的不确定性是防洪调度的主要风险源,故需要在水库群优化调度研究中考虑预见期–余留期两阶段的风险控制方法。本文针对两阶段方法在水库群汛期优化调度中的运用问题,构建以发电效益最大为目标函数的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型,应用于澧水流域江垭、皂市水库群系统,研究结果表明:1) 通过考虑两阶段防洪风险约束,江垭和皂市水库坝前最高水位分别降低了1.37 m、2.63 m,优化调度方案有效降低了下游断面防洪风险;2) 在防洪风险可控的前提下,将水库群主汛期的发电量提高了11.59%。Combining effective hydrological forecast information is a guiding principle for optimal scheduling of reservoir complexes in terms of trade-offs between basin flood control and utilization benefits. Since the uncertainty of hydrological forecast information is the main source of flood control risk, it is necessary to consider the two-phase risk control method of foreseeable period and residual period in the study of optimal reservoir scheduling. This paper addresses the use of two-stage approach in real-time optimal scheduling of reservoir group flood season, and constructs a dynamic control model of reservoir group flood season operating water level with maximum power generation benefit as the objective function for Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoir group system in Lishui River Basin. The results show that: 1) by considering two-stage flood risk constraints, the maximum water levels of Jiangya and Zaoshi reservoirs are reduced by 1.37 m and 2.63 m, respectively. The optimal dispatching scheme effectively reduces the flood control risk of the downstream section;2) under the premise of controllable flood control risk, the power generation during the main flood season is increased by 11.59%.
