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甬江流域鄞州平原区极端洪水对暴雨的响应特征
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作者 徐羽 傅维军 +1 位作者 赵艳 王宗志 《水利水运工程学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期52-61,共10页
为深刻揭示变化环境下甬江流域鄞州平原区雨洪关系特征,以姜山水文站为例,基于1962—2021年逐日降水和水位观测资料,利用分位数扰动法和极端降雨水位时变相关模型,从扰动过程和时变关系两个方面,探讨了水位对极端暴雨的响应特征演变趋... 为深刻揭示变化环境下甬江流域鄞州平原区雨洪关系特征,以姜山水文站为例,基于1962—2021年逐日降水和水位观测资料,利用分位数扰动法和极端降雨水位时变相关模型,从扰动过程和时变关系两个方面,探讨了水位对极端暴雨的响应特征演变趋势。结果表明:近60年姜山水文站年最大1、3 d降水量和年最大水位均呈显著上升趋势,变化倾向率分别为8.39 mm/10 a、12.66 mm/10 a和0.67 m/10 a;年最大1、3 d降水量和最大水位均呈现相似的阶段性扰动特征,即1960—1984年以负扰动为主,1985—2012年扰动强度较为平稳,2013—2021年为显著扰动;在选用的12个模型中,Time-varing Normal、Time-varing Rotated Gumbel、Timevaring Symmetrized Joe-Clayton等3个动态时变响应模型能更好地拟合极端洪水对暴雨的响应。总体上,年最大水位对年最大3 d降水量的响应以1990s—2000s为高值期,呈现先升后降的阶段性特征。研究结果可以加深城镇化对雨洪关系影响机制的认知,也可供区域洪涝灾害预警和预测参考。 展开更多
关键词 极端降雨 水位 扰动 动态时变相关 甬江流域
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The Three-North Shelterbelt Program and Dynamic Changes in Vegetation Cover 被引量:9
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作者 王强 张勃 +2 位作者 张志强 张喜风 戴声佩 《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 CSCD 2014年第1期53-59,共7页
The Shelterbelt Forest System Program in northeast, north and northwest China (the Three-North Shelterbelt Program, TNSP) is the largest ecological reforestation program in the world. TNSP vegetation research has im... The Shelterbelt Forest System Program in northeast, north and northwest China (the Three-North Shelterbelt Program, TNSP) is the largest ecological reforestation program in the world. TNSP vegetation research has important ecological meaning and profound social and economic signiifcance. Here, spatio-temporal variation in vegetation cover under the TNSP was examined using the NDVI average method, major climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, and linear regression trend analysis from 1982 to 2006. We found that in the past 25 years, NDVI vegetation in the study area has consistently risen at a rate of 0.007 per decade. Vegetation cover, temperature and precipitation are positively correlated. The area of vegetation associated with precipitation is larger than the area related to temperature;precipitation is the key factor affecting vegetation growth across the TNSP. From 1982 to 2006, regions with improved vegetation cover were found in the central and southern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains, central part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains, northeastern part of the Changbai Mountains, Yanshan Mountians, Western Liaoning Hilly Region, Altai Mountains, Tien Shan Mountains, eastern part of the Qilian Mountains, eastern part of the northwest desert as wel as southern part of the Gul y Region of the Loess Plateau. However, vegetation cover declined on both sides of the Greater Khingan Mountains, western part of the Hulun Buir Plateau, northern part of the Sanjiang Plain, southern part of Horqin Sandy Land, southern part of the northwest desert and northern part of the Gul y Region of the Loess Plateau. 展开更多
关键词 NDVI Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) spatio-temporal changes correlation analysis dynamic study northern China
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