劳动力市场状况与刑事犯罪——基于城市面板数据的经验研究

我国转型期经济快速增长伴随着刑事犯罪率的迅速攀升,正受到越来越多研究者的关注。本文探讨刑事犯罪率上升背后的劳动力市场状况恶化因素。基于一个全新的2000年到2008年间包含22个东部发达地区城市面板数据的实证研究,我们发现城市行业工资收入差距每上升1%,将导致刑事犯罪率平均上升0.167%。进一步的分解计算表明,样本大城市刑事犯罪率偏高,大约平均分别有26%和40%可以由大城市潜在犯罪获利机会集聚,以及犯罪被发现概率较低中得到解释。本研究直接的政策含义是,旨在改善低收入群体尤其外来农民工的劳动力市场状况的公共政策,特别是提升农民工边际产出的职业技能培训类项目,将有利于改善中国发达地区大城市的社会治理秩序,让城市更好地发挥要素集聚效益。

资讯

世行上调今年中国经济增速至2%世界银行日前发布2020年12月期《中国经济简报》。相较7月份发布的报告,最新报告把中国经济今年的增速,由此前的1.6%上调至2%。报告还预测,在2021年,随着消费者和企业信心增强以及劳动力市场状况改善,中国经济的增速可能将回升至7.9%。世界银行中国首席经济学家艾卡思表示,中国防控疫情取得成功,中国经济实现V型反弹。上半年的复苏得益于工业率先复工复产,以及政府的刺激性宏观政策和大规模公共投资,而下半年的复苏势头则更加均衡。

Forecasting China's Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period

The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China's labor supply and demand during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.The scale and structure of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education.while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries. The results show that, during the 13 th FiveYear Plan period.the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly, with an average annual increment of around 15.68 million. At the same time.labor demand would increase steadily, with annually 15.42 million employment opportunities. Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however,there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market.Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand,we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40's and 50's generations,migrant workers and college graduates,and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates.

市场

美联储按按下降息“暂停键”美国东部时间12月11日,美联储发表利率声明,宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在1.5%至1.75%不变,结束了7月以来的利率“三连降”。美联储表示,当前的货币政策立场有利于支持经济活动的持续扩张,也与强劲的劳动力市场状况和接近2%目标的通胀率相适应。

欧美失业率指标失真原因及改进

准确、及时评估劳动力市场景气程度,对货币政策制定非常重要,但失业率这一衡量劳动力市场状况的主要参考指标近年来在美欧时常“失真”,主要表现为失业率低估了劳动力市场疲软程度,这一现象在新冠肺炎疫情期间尤为突出。