北印度夏季风与中国河套及邻近地区盛夏降水的联系

利用印度热带气象研究所和中国气象局分别提供的1951-2006年印度各分区和中国160个站点的逐月降水资料,NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料以及NOAA提供的逐月海表温度资料,对印度各分区降水与中国区域降水之间的联系进行了分析。结果发现盛夏7-8月印度西北部和北部山区降水与中国河套及邻近地区降水呈显著的正相关关系,由此将7-8月印度西北部与北部山区降水定义为北印度夏季风指数。进一步通过遥相关和水汽输送揭示了北印度夏季风强弱与中国河套盛夏降水的联系途径。当北印度夏季风偏强时,中国河套受异常低压系统前部气流控制,系统从低层到高层向西倾斜,低压前部、高压后部的偏南气流带来南方暖湿气流,有助于河套降水的产生。北印度夏季风强盛年亦有助于输送到中国河套地区的三条水汽通道的加强。北印度夏季风偏弱时,情况相反。北印度夏季风异常偏强/弱,若从前期冬季开始伴随有一次La Nia/El Nio过程,赤道东太平洋SST异常通过与北印度夏季风相联系引起的水汽异常输送对中国河套降水产生更显著影响,而北印度夏季风即使不受到赤道东太平洋SST异常影响,对河套降水的影响仍然是显著的。

Contrasting the Indian and western North Pacific summer monsoons in terms of their intensity of interannual variability and biennial relationship with ENSO

The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)during 1958–2018.Covariability of the IIV and MEBR were identified for the two monsoons.When the MEBR was strong(weak),the IIV of the monsoon was observed to be large(small).This rule applied to both the ISM and WNPSM.Out-ofphase relationships were found between the ISM and the WNPSM.When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong(weak),those of the WNPSM tended to be weak(strong).During the period with a stronger(weaker)ENSO–Atlantic coupling after(before)the mid-1980 s,the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM(ISM)were observed to be stronger.The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)may trigger the observed seesaw pattern of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of the IIV and MEBR multidecadal variability.The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention and consideration when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM.

The critical role of Indian summer monsoon on the remote forcing between Indian and Northwest Pacific during El Nio decaying year

Recent studies have found a connection between Indian Ocean Basin Warming and the anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticy- clone （ANPWA） during El Nifio decaying year. This study focuses on the necessary condition for this connection by using ob- servation and numerical simulation. The seasonal transition of the Indian Ocean sea surface wind is critical to the climatic ef- fect of Indian Ocean Basin Warming. When the South Asian Summer Monsoon reaches its peak, the background wind be- comes desirable for basin warming, which then affects the climate in the Northwest Pacific. Via the Kelvin waves and Ekman divergence, the wind anomalies exist in the lower atmosphere east of the Indian Ocean warm Sea Surface Temperature （SST） anomalies, and intensify and sustain the ANWPA throughout the E1 Nifio decaying summer. This impact plays an important role in the inter-annual variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon.

East Asian-North Indian Ocean thermal contrast and variation in the East Asian summer monsoon for the past 2650 years

Using observational data, the East Asian-North Indian Ocean index （]EANI）, which reflects a tropospheric thermal contrast, is found to correlate well with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and associated rainfall over eastern China. Corresponding to a higher （lower） IEANI, the EASM at mid-latitudes is stronger （weaker）, and there is more （less） rainfall in North China and less （more） rainfall near the Yangtze River valley. To investigate long-term variation in the EASM, we reconstructed the BC 665AD 1985 IEANI based on reconstructed temperatures in Beijing and Tasmania, Australia. Over the past 2000 years, the reconstructed/EANI generally represents centennial-scale variations in the EASM and rainfall over eastem China. The correlation pattern between the reconstructed IEANI and rainfall over eastern China is similar to modem observations, implying that the correlation feature at centennial scales also occurred over the past 2000 years. With respect to longer-scale （several hundreds to one thousand years） IEANI variations and their correlations with rainfall, further verifications should be performed using various paleoclimatic proxy data.