北太平洋年代际涛动与太阳活动的联系

采用逐次滤波法分析了北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际振荡特征及其主要影响因子,探索太阳活动对于北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际变化的影响。结果表明,太阳活动是北太平洋海洋大气系统周期性年代际振荡的重要影响因子,具体反映在:1)北太平洋年代际涛动(PDO,Pacific Decadal Oscillation)存在与太阳活动密切相关的22年周期和11年周期,是PDO仅次于趋势项最重要的周期成分,其方差贡献率分别为20.9%和6.7%。研究发现北太平洋年代际涛动变化对于太阳活动的响应方式与太阳活动强弱程度有联系,太阳活动水平强时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相同并且振荡幅度大;太阳活动水平弱时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相反并且振荡幅度小。2)滤除持续下降趋势之后,北太平洋冬季阿留申低压活动区海平面气压(SLP,Sea Level Pressure)表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数(MI,Magnetic index)基本反相的周期性振荡,滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚,其方差贡献率分别为13.4%和1.1%。3)滤除持续升温趋势以后北太平洋100hPa冬季大气温度距平场表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数基本一致的周期性振荡,滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚,其方差贡献率分别为15.1%和1.1%。研究结果说明,在太阳活动对于大气温度场的影响过程中,黑子磁场磁性变化是决定性的,即决定了温度变化符号,MI绝对值的变化即太阳磁场强度变化影响其量变。

中国东部2012年夏季降水及年代际转型的可能信号分析

针对2012年夏季中国东部降水"南旱北涝"的异常特征,对比分析了近50年不同年代中国东部降水的分布型及海洋和环流等影响因素,并讨论了2012年中国东部夏季降水异常作为中国东部降水年代际转型信号的可能性.研究结果表明:1961—1978年期间,北太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)处于冷位相,东亚夏季风偏强,西太平洋副热带高压(副高)偏弱,北方地区冷空气活动偏弱,从而有利于南方水汽北上,造成中国北方地区夏季降水异常偏多;1979—1992年间则呈相反的特征,造成1970年代末期中国东部夏季降水发生了一次年代际尺度的调整.2010年代后期以来,PDO由暖位相向冷位向转变,2012年北太平洋海温异常偏暖,西太平洋海温由异常偏暖状态转变为正常略偏冷状态,东亚夏季风由弱变强,副高由强变弱,北方冷系统活动减弱,这些特征均与1961—1978年时段的情况类似,支持2012年作为中国东部夏季降水发生年代际调整的前期信号的可能性.近10年PDO,东亚夏季风(EASM),副高(WPSH)和贝湖高压(BH)四种指数夏季平均值的演变则进一步说明了2012年的这种异常特征不仅是年际尺度的振荡,更可能是前期演化基础上的一种量变到质变的调整.

A possible way to extract a stationary relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon

Previous studies have revealed that the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)is not statistically significant when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is in its positive phase.This study explores a possible way to obtain a robust ENSO-EAWM relationship from a dynamical point of view.Here,the authors show that the East Asian winter temperature is significantly and continuously correlated with ENSO when the linear impact of the PDO has been linearly removed from ENSO.Such a conclusion is confirmed by different reanalysis datasets.The dynamical process intensifying the ENSO-EAWM is further investigated from the perspective of whether or not the atmospheric teleconnection between the Pacific and East Asia has established.Compared to the situation associated with the original ENSO in the positive phase of the PDO,the Walker circulation associated with the processed ENSO,from which the effect of North Pacific climate systems has been removed,tends to exert a more pronounced influence on the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific.Consequently,an anomalous anticyclone emerges in the Kuroshio extension.In this sense,the Pacific-East Asian teleconnection is also well established during the positive phase of the PDO,which favors the impact of ENSO on East Asian winter temperature.

Global Climate Internal Variability in a 2000-year Control Simulation with Community Earth System Model(CESM)

Using the low-resolution （T31, equivalent to 3.75°× 3.75°） version of the Community Earth System Model （CESM） from the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, a global climate simulation was carried out with fixed external forcing factors （1850 Common Era. （C.E.） conditions） for the past 2000 years. Based on the simulated results, spatio-temporal structures of surface air temperature, precipitation and internal variability, such as the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscilla- tion （AMO）, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, were compared with reanalysis datasets to evaluate the model performance. The results are as follows： 1） CESM showed a good performance in the long-term simulation and no significant climate drift over the past 2000 years; 2） climatological patterns of global and regional climate changes simulated by the CESM were reasonable compared with the reanalysis datasets; and 3） the CESM simulated internal natural variability of the climate system performs very well. The model not only reproduced the periodicity of ENSO, AMO and PDO events but also the 3-8 years vari- ability of the ENSO. The spatial distribution of the CESM-simulated NAO was also similar to the observed. However, because of weaker total irradiation and greenhouse gas concentration forcing in the simulation than the present, the model performances had some differences from the observations. Generally, the CESM showed a good performance in simulating the global climate and internal natu- ral variability of the climate system. This paves the way for other forced climate simulations for the past 2000 years by using the CESM.

Relationships between the Oxygen Isotopes in East Asian Stalagmites and Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Modes

The stalagmite δ18O record is known to be associated with the climate, but the specifics of the relationship remain unclear. It may not represent variation in air temperature or precipitation, but instead reflect integral changes of monsoon circulation, especially water vapor sources(the so-called "circulation effect"). Since large-scale atmospheric-oceanic modes such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exert significant effects on Asian monsoon, in this paper the authors investigate the relationships of the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record with these modes. The last three centuries form the focus of our study, for which the authors use reconstructed as well as instrumental data. Considering the impacts of human activity, our analysis is conducted with respect to two periods—the pre- and post-industrial periods. The results show significant lead-lag connections: a positive correlation peaks when the PDO leads East Asian stalagmite δ18O by 3 years, which is persistent over the past 300 years; while the relationships of the AMO and NAO with the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record show significant differences in the post-industrial relative to the pre-industrial period. This implies that the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record may primarily reflect the PDO signal.

Interdecadal change in the lagged relationship between the Victoria mode and ENSO

This paper investigates the interdecadal variability in the lagged relationship between the spring Victoria mode(VM)and the following-winter El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).It is found that the relationship is strong during high correlation(HC)periods,e.g.1957–1964 and 1981–2004,but weak during low correlation(LC)periods,e.g.1907–1924,1926–1956,1965–1980,and2005–2008.The surface air–sea coupling and the evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomaliesh along the equatorial Paci?c associated with the VM are found to be strong during HC periods and weak during LC periods,which results in a stronger impact of the VM on the following-winter ENSO during HC periods.The interdecadal change in the relationship between the VM and ENSO is mainly due to the interdecadal change in the intensity of the VM,which is found to be in?uenced by the North Paci?c Oscillation.Our?ndings may improve the prediction skill for the onset of ENSO events.

Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2009, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.

Interdecadal change of the connection between winter North Pacific Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley

The relationship between the winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the following summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley before and after the mid-1970s is investigated by using the Chinese 160-station precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1951 to 2008.It is found that their linkage appears to have an apparent interdecadal variation.Before the mid-1970s, there was a prominent out-of-phase relationship between the winter NPO and the summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley.However, such a relationship is significantly weakened afterwards.The change of atmospheric circulations related to the winter NPO before and after the mid-1970s is further addressed.Before the mid-1970s, a strong (weak) winter NPO was followed by the summer situations with anomalous low-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over the western Pacific and descending (ascending) over the Huaihe River valley.Meanwhile, the water vapor transporting to the Huaihe River valley was reduced (enhanced).These conditions are unfavorable (favorable) for the precipitation occurring in the Huaihe River valley, and thus the local precipitation was decreased (increased).After the mid-1970s, however, the impact of winter NPO on the summer atmospheric circulation system associated with the rainfall in the Huaihe River valley becomes diluted, thereby weakening its linkage to the summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley.