经济管理干部教育研究会第六届东北年会纪要

全国经济管理干部教育研究会第六届东北年会,历时4天,于1995年10月13日在吉林省经济管理干部学院结束。参加这次年会的有会长、副会长、顾问和秘书长、副秘书长以及务会员单位的院领导、教务处长,共计20多人。国家经贸委培训司的领导、全国经济管理干部教育研究会副会长王振田同志,从始至终参加了会议。

塞一两高高栽模北年作产效培式

塞一两高高栽模北年作产效培式承德县上板城镇漫子沟村科技示范户刘志岐，１９９４年示范种植前茬地膜菜豌豆后茬水稻一年两作栽培模式，获两茬钱、粮双超千的好效益，起到了示范带头作用，受到广大农民称赞。其栽培技术要点是：一、地膜菜豌豆３月上旬，清除稻茬，结合深...

南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制

利用降水、大气环流和海表温度等多种再分析资料和偏相关方法,研究了1951—2007年南太平洋年代际振荡(SPDO)和北太平洋年代际振荡(即PDO,本文称为NPDO)分别与华北盛夏(7—8月)降水在年代际时间尺度上的关系及其可能物理机制.结果表明:在去除SPDO和NPDO的相关性之前,它们与华北盛夏降水的关系均偏弱;但在去除两者相关性之后,SPDO(NPDO)与华北盛夏降水存在显著正(负)相关关系.去除两者相关性之后,当SPDO处于正位相时,热带西北太平洋海温异常显著偏暖,这将在对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸激发出“气旋-反气旋-气旋”的负位相东亚—太平洋型遥相关(EAP)波列,该波列导致东亚夏季风异常增强,有利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,从而使得华北盛夏降水异常偏多,反之,当SPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏少;对NPDO来说,当其处于正位相时,不仅热带西北太平洋异常显著偏冷,而且印度洋大部分海温异常显著偏暖,在两者共同作用下,对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸出现“反气旋-气旋-反气旋”的正位相EAP波列,这将引起东亚夏季风异常减弱,不利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,华北盛夏降水异常因此减少,反之,当NPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏多.

北太平洋年代际涛动与太阳活动的联系

采用逐次滤波法分析了北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际振荡特征及其主要影响因子,探索太阳活动对于北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际变化的影响。结果表明,太阳活动是北太平洋海洋大气系统周期性年代际振荡的重要影响因子,具体反映在:1)北太平洋年代际涛动(PDO,Pacific Decadal Oscillation)存在与太阳活动密切相关的22年周期和11年周期,是PDO仅次于趋势项最重要的周期成分,其方差贡献率分别为20.9%和6.7%。研究发现北太平洋年代际涛动变化对于太阳活动的响应方式与太阳活动强弱程度有联系,太阳活动水平强时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相同并且振荡幅度大;太阳活动水平弱时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相反并且振荡幅度小。2)滤除持续下降趋势之后,北太平洋冬季阿留申低压活动区海平面气压(SLP,Sea Level Pressure)表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数(MI,Magnetic index)基本反相的周期性振荡,滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚,其方差贡献率分别为13.4%和1.1%。3)滤除持续升温趋势以后北太平洋100hPa冬季大气温度距平场表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数基本一致的周期性振荡,滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚,其方差贡献率分别为15.1%和1.1%。研究结果说明,在太阳活动对于大气温度场的影响过程中,黑子磁场磁性变化是决定性的,即决定了温度变化符号,MI绝对值的变化即太阳磁场强度变化影响其量变。

北极涛动与北太平洋和北大西洋多年代际振荡的关系研究

利用小波变换和小波互相关分析法对1901—2000年的北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation,AO）、北大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）和北太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO）的年代际振荡关系进行研究,并利用1 000 h Pa高度场合成分析进行验证。结果表明,三个气候模态均有明显的多年代际尺度的振荡特征,且它们在各特征时间尺度上的振荡相关性存在显著区别,主要表现为：在60 a尺度上,AO超前PDO约4 a正相关,AO滞后AMO约12 a负相关;在20~30 a尺度上,AO超前PDO约12 a正相关;在30 a尺度上,AO超前AMO约8 a正相关。在60 a尺度上,超前PDO负位相4 a和滞后AMO正位相12 a的高度场合成结果为AO负位相;在20~30 a尺度上,超前PDO正位相12 a和超前AMO正位相8 a的高度场合成结果为AO正位相。合成分析结果进一步验证了三个模态的相关性。

近400年来北太平洋年代际振荡变化

利用东亚地区高分辨率的气候代用指标，通过双重检验的逐步回归方法和小波分析等方法，重建了近400年来的北太平洋年代际振荡指数，并分析了其周期的演变特征。结果表明，近400年来北太平洋年代际振荡指数具有准20年和准50~70年的变化周期。其中1570-1740年代以准70年周期变化为主，1750-1840年代准20年的周期明显，1850年代后准50~70年的周期又变得显著。这种演变特征可能是太平洋海温对全球百年尺度气候波动的响应。

加利福尼亚附近的海温强迫及其与北太平洋年代际振荡的可能联系

本文利用1958~2018年期间海表面温度(SST)异常和湍流热通量异常变化的关系,探讨了其与北太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)相关的年际和年代际时间尺度上在不同海域的海气相互作用特征。结果表明:在年际尺度上,黑潮—亲潮延伸区(KOE)表现为显著大气强迫海洋,赤道中东太平洋表现为显著海洋强迫大气;在年代际尺度上,PDO北中心表现为大气强迫海洋,加利福尼亚附近则表现为显著海洋强迫大气。进一步分析表明:加利福尼亚附近区域是北太平洋准12年振荡的关键区域之一,与PDO准十年的周期类似,加利福尼亚附近的冷(暖)海温对应其上有反气旋(气旋)型环流,赤道中太平洋海水上翻和北太平洋东部副热带区域经向风应力的变化是北太平洋准12年振荡的另外两个重要环节。

北魏太和十二年前后平城司州的废而复置——以《元苌墓志》为中心

《元苌墓志》于2003年春在河南省济源市出土,首题'魏故侍中镇北大将军定州刺史松滋成公元君(苌)墓志铭'。该志文已在《中国历史文物》2006年第2期刘莲香、蔡运章所著《北魏元苌墓志考略》一文中发表。刘、蔡二先生对元苌的家族、里籍及葬地考订已确,凌文超先生又撰文对此志中'鲜卑姓族四大中正'一职有精彩的考释。

高职院校环境思政新模式探索——以湖北工业职业技术学院为例

大学生宿舍作为高校学生管理“五级责任”的基础责任,如何从单纯的住宿职能逐步向教育职能拓展,是学生管理工作面临的重要课题。针对学生宿舍缺乏专业育人队伍、宿舍育人载体单一、宿舍管理模式落后、宿舍文化氛围薄弱等问题,探讨通过完善机制、搭建平台、丰富载体等方式,将学生管理工作前移,把宿舍作为学生思想政治工作的平台、行为习惯养成的基地、培养团队合作精神和提升学生自我管理能力的场所,探索宿舍育人和环境思政,以保障学生安全和校园稳定。

1470—2019年中国东部旱涝年代际变化及其与太平洋海表温度的关系

基于中国东部地区(30°—40°N,105°E以东)19个代表站1470—2019年旱涝等级序列、古气候代用资料定量重建的北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡指数以及Nino3.4指数,通过经验正交函数分解、小波分析和集合经验模态分解方法分析了中国东部旱涝年代际变化特征及其与太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,(1)1470年以来中国东部旱涝变化的主模态为全区一致型(方差贡献率为25.2%),变率中心主要位于黄河中下游,其时间系数的小波分析和集合经验模态分解揭示出全区旱涝存在10—30 a的准周期;该模态长期趋势揭示17—18世纪中国东部整体偏涝,而19世纪以后出现干旱化趋势。(2)寒冷背景下中国东部旱涝一致变化更明显,在17世纪前、中期和19世纪中、后期的小冰期寒冷期全区一致型模态的方差贡献率为35%—40%,且这两个时段10—30 a的年代际变化信号尤为显著;而旱涝的变率中心则表现出冷期偏北,暖期偏南或偏西的特征。(3)中国东部旱涝的年代际变化与北太平洋和赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常有关,表现为偏涝(旱)气候对应于北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡的冷(暖)相位,以及年代际尺度上的冬季Nino3.4区海表温度的异常偏低(高);在小冰期的寒冷期,旱涝的年代际变化可能与Nino3.4区海表温度异常关系更密切。

《百卷本〈中国全史〉》简介

由人民出版社组织国内学术界强大阵容编撰、出版的超大型巨著——《百卷本〈中国全史〉》,被老一代学者誉为「百年盛事」。 以往人们习惯将通史偏重写成政治史,该书一反此种治学积习,第一次从大文化的视角来阐述中国历史。

Using otolith weight to predict the age of Pennahia macrocephalus in the mouth of the Beibu Gulf

The relation between otolith weight (OW) and the age of marine fish is studied. A total of 222 individuals of bighead white croaker, Pennahia macrocephalus were sampled seasonally in the mouth of the Beibu Gulf, the South China Sea, in 2007. Since there are no significant differences in sagittal OW between otolith in pairs (P≥0.05), the undamaged left sagittal otolith is used for age determination. The highest correlations among standard length, OW and fish ages are confirmed by linear, exponential and multinomial regression. Results show that sagittal OW overlaps only occasionally among age groups, and to individuals with similar standard length, the older and slower-growing fish has a heavier otolith because of the continued otolith material deposition. There are differences in sagittal OW among different age groups and significant positive linear relationship with age (P<0.05). The age readings can be verified by plotting the sagittal OW versus the standard length for age groups, and the individuals with similar standard length but in different ages can be separated by sagittal OW frequency analysis. Mostly, the predicted ages using the regression between sagittal OW and ages are closed to the observed ages by counting annulus on scale. It indicates that the sagittal OW analysis is a useful technique for validating the accuracy of age determination by annuli counts, especially for individuals of similar size. Furthermore, the technique is applied for Pennahia macrocephalus with discussion in this paper.

Interannual variability of transport and bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current in the tropical North Pacific Ocean

The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） to the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height （SSH） observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During E1 Nifio/La Nifia years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15~N, 130~E-160~E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.

Use of Cataract Surgery in Urban Beijing: a Post Screening Follow-up of the Elderly with Visual Impairment due to Age-related Cataract

Objective To understand the perception for the use of cataract surgical services in a population acceptors and non-acceptors of cataract surgery in urban Beijing. Methods From a community-based screening program a total of 158 patients with presenting visual acuity of less than 6/18 on either eye due to age-related cataract were informed about the possibility of surgical treatment. These patients were interviewed and re-examined 36 to 46 months after initial screening. The main reasons for not accepting surgery were obtained using a questionnaire. Vision function and vision-related quality of life scores were assessed in those who received and did not receive surgery. Results At the follow-up examination 116 of the 158 patients were available and 36 （31.0%） had undergone cataract surgery. Cases who chose surgery had higher education level than those who did not seek surgery （OR=2.64, 95% CI： 1.08-6.63, P=0.02）. There were no significant differences in vision function （P=0.11） or quality of life scores （P=0.16） between the surgery group and the non-surgery group. Main reasons for not having surgery included no perceived need （50.0%）, feeling of being ＂too old＂ （19.2%）, and worry about the quality of surgery （9.6%）. Cost was seeking surgery. cited by 1 （1.9%） subject as the main reason for not

基于热含量探究PDO的三维结构及信号传播特征

基于1815—2013年SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)数据不同深度的温度数据资料,进行了热含量的计算,并通过EOF分解、功率谱分析等统计方法探究太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)的三维结构和周期性特征。结果表明,太平洋的年代际变化不仅仅存在于海洋表层,海洋300 m以浅均存在年代际变化特征,其中次表层(70 m左右)的年代际变化特征最为显著。功率谱分析的结果显示,北太平洋的年代际变化周期约为18 a。利用SODA数据的温度和盐度资料对北太平洋的Rossby(罗斯贝)波波速进行了计算,计算结果显示,Rossby波向西传播,其波速随着纬度的增大而减小。对300 m以浅水体的热含量时间序列与PDO指数做了超前滞后相关,在热含量序列滞后9 a时相关系数分布与同期相关反相。对不同层次的热含量与PDO指数进行了超前滞后相关,分析PDO的演变特征,结果表明,PDO在低纬度通过Rossby波向西传播,在传播过程中深度逐渐加深。

Interannual variability in the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation

We analyzed the temporal and spatial variation, and interannual variability of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation using an empirical orthogonal function method, and calculated mass transport using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation Data from 1958-2008. The meridional streamfunction field in the North Pacific tilts N-S; the Tropical Cell （TC）, Subtropical Cell （STC）, and Deep Tropical Cell （DTC） may be in phase on an annual time scale; the TC and the STC are out of phase on an interannual time scale, but the interannual variability of the DTC is complex. The TC and STC interannual variability is associated with ENSO （El Nifio-Southem Oscillation）. The TC northward, southward, upward, and downward transports all weaken in E1 Nifios and strengthen in La Nifias. The STC northward and southward transports are out of phase, while the STC northward and downward transports are in phase. Sea-surface water that reaches the middle latitude and is subducted may not completely return to the vopics. The zonal wind anomalies over the central North Pacific, which control Ekman transport, and the east-west slope of the sea level may be major factors causing the TC northward and southward transport interannual variability and the STC northward and southward transports on the interannual time scale. The DTC northward and southward transports decrease during strong E1 Nifios and increase during strong La Nifias. DTC upward and downward transports are not strongly correlated with the Nifio-3 index and may not be completely controlled by ENSO.

Dominant modes of geopotential height in the northern hemisphere in summer on interdecadal timescales

Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis is performed on the field of the northem hemisphere geopotential height at 200-hPa using a 54-year （1958-2011） record of summer data on an interdecadal time scale. The first dominant mode, which shows smooth semi-hemispheric variation with maximum action centers in the western hemisphere in the mid-latitudes over the eastern Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic, is related to global warming. The second mode, which has a pronounced tropical-extratropical alternating pattern with active centers located over the eastern hemisphere from Western Europe across East Asia to the western Pacific, has a close relationship with the Arctic Oscillation. Further analysis results indicate that the two dominant modes show good correlation with the Arctic sea ice concentration （SIC）, with correlation coefficients between these two modes and the first two EOF modes of the Arctic SIC reaching 0.88 and 0.86, respectively.

Vegetation-environment Relationships Between Northern Slope of Karlik Mountain and Naomaohu Basin,East Tianshan Mountains

Based on data from 22 sample plots and applying the Canonical Correspondence Analysis （CCA）, this paper discusses the vegetation-environment relationships between the northern slope of Karlik Mountain and Naomaohu Ba- sin, which is situated in the easternmost end of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. For the zonal vegetation, community diversity of mountain vegetation is higher than that of the desert vegetation due to environmental factors. The CCA ordination diagram revealed that the composition and distribution of vegetation types are mainly determined by altitude, soil pH and soil salt content. With increasing elevation, the soil pH and total salt content decrease but the contents of soil organic matter, soil water, total nitrogen and total phosphorus increase gradu- ally. In the CCA ordination diagrams, the sample plots and main species can be divided into five types according to their adaptations to the environmental factors. Type Ⅰ is composed of desert vegetation distributed on the low moun- tains, hills, plains and deserts below an elevation of 1900 m; type Ⅱ is distributed in the mountain and desert ecotone with an elevation of 1900-2300 m, and includes steppe desert, desert steppe and wetland meadow; type Ⅲ is very sim- ply composed of only salinized meadow; type Ⅳ is distributed above an elevation of 2300 m, containing mountain steppe, meadow steppe, subalpine meadow and alpine meadow; type Ⅴ only contains salinized meadow. The results show that with increasing elevation, species combination changes from the xerophytic shrubs, semi-shrubs and herbs distributed in the low altitude zone with arid climate to the cold-tolerant perennial herbs growing in the high altitudinal zone with cold climate.

A possible way to extract a stationary relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon

Previous studies have revealed that the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)is not statistically significant when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is in its positive phase.This study explores a possible way to obtain a robust ENSO-EAWM relationship from a dynamical point of view.Here,the authors show that the East Asian winter temperature is significantly and continuously correlated with ENSO when the linear impact of the PDO has been linearly removed from ENSO.Such a conclusion is confirmed by different reanalysis datasets.The dynamical process intensifying the ENSO-EAWM is further investigated from the perspective of whether or not the atmospheric teleconnection between the Pacific and East Asia has established.Compared to the situation associated with the original ENSO in the positive phase of the PDO,the Walker circulation associated with the processed ENSO,from which the effect of North Pacific climate systems has been removed,tends to exert a more pronounced influence on the atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific.Consequently,an anomalous anticyclone emerges in the Kuroshio extension.In this sense,the Pacific-East Asian teleconnection is also well established during the positive phase of the PDO,which favors the impact of ENSO on East Asian winter temperature.