对再分析资料的合成分析表明,10 h Pa北半球环状模（NAM）指数和东北亚地区地面温度（SAT）存在显著的后滞相关关系。正/负位相平流层NAM异常事件往往伴随着东北亚地区正/负异常地面温度变化。负位相NAM指数超前东北亚地面温度异常20～4...对再分析资料的合成分析表明,10 h Pa北半球环状模（NAM）指数和东北亚地区地面温度（SAT）存在显著的后滞相关关系。正/负位相平流层NAM异常事件往往伴随着东北亚地区正/负异常地面温度变化。负位相NAM指数超前东北亚地面温度异常20～40天,正位相NAM指数超前约20天。定义了有效平流层极端事件（ESE）,并研究了不同标准下平流层NAM异常能够传到对流层的比例。研究表明,NAM异常下传的比例随定义标准的提高而增加。研究结果显示,平流层大气环流异常在一定程度上能够作为先兆因子来延长中国北方冬季对流层天气预报。展开更多
The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)simulated in the historical experiment of26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)are...The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)simulated in the historical experiment of26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)are evaluated.Spectral analysis of the monthly AO index indicates that 23 out of the 26 CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically significant spectral peak in the historical experiment,as seen in the observations.These models are able to reproduce the AO pattern in the sea level pressure anomaly field during boreal winter,but the intensity of the AO pattern tends to be overestimated in all the models.The zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies associated with the AO is dominated by a meridional dipole in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter,which is well reproduced by only a few models.Most models show significant biases in both strength and location of the dipole compared to the observation.In considering the temporal variability as well as spatial structures in both horizontal and vertical directions,the MPI-ESM-P model reproduces an AO pattern that resembles the observation the best.展开更多
Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis is performed on the field of the northern hemisphere geopotential height at 200-hPa using a 54-year(1958-2011) record of summer data on an interdecadal time scale.The first ...Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis is performed on the field of the northern hemisphere geopotential height at 200-hPa using a 54-year(1958-2011) record of summer data on an interdecadal time scale.The first dominant mode,which shows smooth semi-hemispheric variation with maximum action centers in the western hemisphere in the mid-latitudes over the eastern Pacific,North America,and the North Atlantic,is related to global warming.The second mode,which has a pronounced tropical-extratropical alternating pattern with active centers located over the eastern hemisphere from Western Europe across East Asia to the western Pacific,has a close relationship with the Arctic Oscillation.Further analysis results indicate that the two dominant modes show good correlation with the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC),with correlation coefficients between these two modes and the first two EOF modes of the Arctic SIC reaching 0.88 and 0.86,respectively.展开更多
In this study,the authors analyzed the associations between the Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ)in boreal winter for the period 1979–2009.A statistically si...In this study,the authors analyzed the associations between the Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ)in boreal winter for the period 1979–2009.A statistically significant AO-TIO ITCZ linkage was found.The ITCZ vertical air motion is significantly associated with the AO,with upward(downward)air motion corresponding to the positive(negative)AO phase.The Arabian Sea anticyclone plays a crucial role in linking the AO and the TIO ITCZ.The Arabian Sea vorticity is strongly linked to high-latitude disturbances in conjunction with jet stream waveguide effects of disturbance trapping and energy dispersion.During positive(negative)AO years,the Arabian Sea anticyclone tends to be stronger(weaker).The mean vorticity over the Arabian Sea,averaged from 850hPa to 200 hPa,has a significant negative correlation with AO(r=0.63).The anomalous anticyclone over the Arabian Sea brings stronger northeastern winds,which enhance the ITCZ after crossing the equator and result in greater-than-normal precipitation and minimum outgoing long-wave radiation.展开更多
The physical decomposition method separates atmospheric variables into four parts, correlating each with solar radiation, land–sea distribution, and inter-annual and seasonal internal forcing, strengthening the anoma...The physical decomposition method separates atmospheric variables into four parts, correlating each with solar radiation, land–sea distribution, and inter-annual and seasonal internal forcing, strengthening the anomaly signal and increasing the correlation between variables. This method was applied to the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR), to study the effects of Arctic factors(Arctic oscillation(AO) and Arctic polar vortex) on wintertime temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and China. It was found that AO effects on zonal average temperature disturbance could persist for 1 month. In the AO negative phase in wintertime, the temperatures are lower in the mid–high latitudes than in normal years, but higher in low latitudes. When the polar vortex area is bigger, the zonal average temperature is lower at 50°N. Influenced mainly by meridional circulation enhancement, cold air flows from high to low latitudes; thus, the temperatures in Continental Europe and the North American continent exhibit an antiphase seesaw relationship. When the AO is in negative phase and the Arctic polar vortex larger, the temperature is lower in Siberia, but higher in Greenland and the Bering Strait. Influenced by westerly troughs and ridges, the polar air disperses mainly along the tracks of atmospheric activity centers. The AO index can be considered a predictor of wintertime temperature in China. When the AO is in negative phase or the Asian polar vortex is intensified, temperatures in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are lower, because under the influence of the Siberia High and northeast cold vortex, the cold air flows southwards.展开更多
文摘对再分析资料的合成分析表明,10 h Pa北半球环状模（NAM）指数和东北亚地区地面温度（SAT）存在显著的后滞相关关系。正/负位相平流层NAM异常事件往往伴随着东北亚地区正/负异常地面温度变化。负位相NAM指数超前东北亚地面温度异常20～40天,正位相NAM指数超前约20天。定义了有效平流层极端事件（ESE）,并研究了不同标准下平流层NAM异常能够传到对流层的比例。研究表明,NAM异常下传的比例随定义标准的提高而增加。研究结果显示,平流层大气环流异常在一定程度上能够作为先兆因子来延长中国北方冬季对流层天气预报。
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950501&2010CB950404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41205058)the China Postdoctoral Sci-ence Foundation(No.2012M510634)
文摘The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)simulated in the historical experiment of26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)are evaluated.Spectral analysis of the monthly AO index indicates that 23 out of the 26 CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically significant spectral peak in the historical experiment,as seen in the observations.These models are able to reproduce the AO pattern in the sea level pressure anomaly field during boreal winter,but the intensity of the AO pattern tends to be overestimated in all the models.The zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies associated with the AO is dominated by a meridional dipole in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter,which is well reproduced by only a few models.Most models show significant biases in both strength and location of the dipole compared to the observation.In considering the temporal variability as well as spatial structures in both horizontal and vertical directions,the MPI-ESM-P model reproduces an AO pattern that resembles the observation the best.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973Program)(No.2010CB951403,2012CB955604,2012CB417402,and 2010CB950402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41106018)
文摘Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis is performed on the field of the northern hemisphere geopotential height at 200-hPa using a 54-year(1958-2011) record of summer data on an interdecadal time scale.The first dominant mode,which shows smooth semi-hemispheric variation with maximum action centers in the western hemisphere in the mid-latitudes over the eastern Pacific,North America,and the North Atlantic,is related to global warming.The second mode,which has a pronounced tropical-extratropical alternating pattern with active centers located over the eastern hemisphere from Western Europe across East Asia to the western Pacific,has a close relationship with the Arctic Oscillation.Further analysis results indicate that the two dominant modes show good correlation with the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC),with correlation coefficients between these two modes and the first two EOF modes of the Arctic SIC reaching 0.88 and 0.86,respectively.
基金supported by Global Change,Environmental Risk and Its Adaptation Paradigms(2012CB955401)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program(XDA05110203)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41375071)
文摘In this study,the authors analyzed the associations between the Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ)in boreal winter for the period 1979–2009.A statistically significant AO-TIO ITCZ linkage was found.The ITCZ vertical air motion is significantly associated with the AO,with upward(downward)air motion corresponding to the positive(negative)AO phase.The Arabian Sea anticyclone plays a crucial role in linking the AO and the TIO ITCZ.The Arabian Sea vorticity is strongly linked to high-latitude disturbances in conjunction with jet stream waveguide effects of disturbance trapping and energy dispersion.During positive(negative)AO years,the Arabian Sea anticyclone tends to be stronger(weaker).The mean vorticity over the Arabian Sea,averaged from 850hPa to 200 hPa,has a significant negative correlation with AO(r=0.63).The anomalous anticyclone over the Arabian Sea brings stronger northeastern winds,which enhance the ITCZ after crossing the equator and result in greater-than-normal precipitation and minimum outgoing long-wave radiation.
基金supported by the Young Scientists Fund of the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos.41106165, 41106159)the Chinese Polar Environment Comprehensive Investigation & Evaluation Programmes(Grant no.CHINARE2014-04-04)+1 种基金the Project of Comprehensive Evaluation of Polar Regions on Global and Regional Climate Changes (Grant no.201105019)the National Science and Technology Support Plan of China (Grant no.2012BAC19B08)
文摘The physical decomposition method separates atmospheric variables into four parts, correlating each with solar radiation, land–sea distribution, and inter-annual and seasonal internal forcing, strengthening the anomaly signal and increasing the correlation between variables. This method was applied to the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR), to study the effects of Arctic factors(Arctic oscillation(AO) and Arctic polar vortex) on wintertime temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and China. It was found that AO effects on zonal average temperature disturbance could persist for 1 month. In the AO negative phase in wintertime, the temperatures are lower in the mid–high latitudes than in normal years, but higher in low latitudes. When the polar vortex area is bigger, the zonal average temperature is lower at 50°N. Influenced mainly by meridional circulation enhancement, cold air flows from high to low latitudes; thus, the temperatures in Continental Europe and the North American continent exhibit an antiphase seesaw relationship. When the AO is in negative phase and the Arctic polar vortex larger, the temperature is lower in Siberia, but higher in Greenland and the Bering Strait. Influenced by westerly troughs and ridges, the polar air disperses mainly along the tracks of atmospheric activity centers. The AO index can be considered a predictor of wintertime temperature in China. When the AO is in negative phase or the Asian polar vortex is intensified, temperatures in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are lower, because under the influence of the Siberia High and northeast cold vortex, the cold air flows southwards.
