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媒体风险感知与系统性金融风险预警 被引量:5
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作者 肖争艳 任梦瑶 《财经问题研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第9期63-74,共12页
2008年国际金融危机以来,关于系统性金融风险预警已成为社会各界关注的重要问题。本文采用新闻文本大数据构建了媒体风险感知这一主观指标,结合股票、债券、货币和外汇等金融子市场风险指标,使用CISS方法合成了中国系统性金融风险指数(R... 2008年国际金融危机以来,关于系统性金融风险预警已成为社会各界关注的重要问题。本文采用新闻文本大数据构建了媒体风险感知这一主观指标,结合股票、债券、货币和外汇等金融子市场风险指标,使用CISS方法合成了中国系统性金融风险指数(RP-SRI),并将RP-SRI与只包含金融子市场风险指标的金融压力指数(FSI)进行对比研究。结果表明,首先,媒体风险感知与金融市场和宏观经济之间存在单向的非线性格兰杰因果关系。这说明媒体能够捕捉政策不确定性和市场风险的微小变化,媒体风险感知对金融市场和宏观经济有传染效应。其次,就经济稳定问题而言,加入媒体风险感知的RP-SRI对经济下行风险爆发概率的识别能力相较于FSI要更强,可以更好地预测经济下行风险。最后,就金融稳定问题而言,RP-SRI可识别系统性金融风险迅速积累状态,实现预警金融风险的目的。本文丰富了系统性金融风险的防范预警体系,有助于监管部门及时进行金融市场风险防控和舆情管理,维持经济稳定和金融稳定。 展开更多
关键词 媒体风险感知 系统性金融风险 风险预警 区制识别
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Recognition on the forming-vanishing process and underlying mechanisms of the hypoxia off the Yangtze River estuary 被引量:17
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作者 WEI QinSheng WANG BaoDong +3 位作者 CHEN JianFang XIA ChangShui QU DaPeng XIE LinPing 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第4期628-648,共21页
On the basis of compiled multidisciplinary historical data in 2006-2007 and incorporation of relevant simulation results and re- mote sensing data, we performed an in-depth study of the generation and dissipation proc... On the basis of compiled multidisciplinary historical data in 2006-2007 and incorporation of relevant simulation results and re- mote sensing data, we performed an in-depth study of the generation and dissipation process of the hypoxic zone and its distribu- tion morphology and structure off the Yangtze River estuary, Based on the hydrological circulation dynamics, reproduction of phytoplankton (leading to the decomposition of organic matter), and other factors, we comprehensively and systematically inves- tigated the generation and dissipation of the hypoxic zone and underlying mechanisms for the seasonal variation in its position, explored the multi-factorial synergistic reactions during the generation and dissipation process of the hypoxic zone, and revealed the controlled mechanism for the morphology and structure of the hypoxic zone's distribution. Our studies indicate that in the winter and spring seasons, the hydrological environment off the Yangtze River estuary provides a water body with relatively low contents of dissolved oxygen (DO), which is the background for the formation of a hypoxic zone. After entering into the summer season, the hypoxic zone gradually develops towards the north and becomes mature. Because of the impact of the terrain, local decomposition of organic matter, and upwelling of the Kuroshio subsurface water in July-August, the bypoxic zone off the Yang- tze River estuary exhibits the characteristics of discontinuous distribution in space and has a south and north "dual-core" structure in the inner continental shelf. In addition, there is a hypoxic core in the eastern outer continental shelf. The degrees of hypoxia vary for different areas; they are strongest overall in the north, next strongest in the south; they are weakest on the outer continen- tal shelf. In summer, the hypoxic zone in the north is related to the northward differentiation of the southern hypoxic zone and re- sults from local development and intensification. In August, the hypoxic zone in the north reaches its peak, and after September, it rapidly retreats southward and disappears because of weakening stratification. In the fall, there is hypoxic zone along the coast of Zhejiang in the south, and there is also a low-DO area to the southwest of Jeju Island, with both zones disappearing rapidly. In addition, the change of dynamic environment also causes the low-DO area of the outer continental shelf to move outward in the fall. The variation in the intensity of the stratification and its cumulative effects as a barrier of vertical DO transportation over long pe- riods of time have a significant impact on the degree of hypoxia in the hypoxic zone. In addition, the seasonal variations in the size of the stratified region, intensity of each current system/water mass, upwelling, front, and high-value area of phytoplankton biomass jointly restrict the extension of the hypoxic zone in the inner continental shelf and latitudinal (south-north direction) movement of its location off the Yangtze River estuary. The combined effect of dynamic factors, such as that of the Kuroshio subsurface water, causes a low-DO core in the outer continental shelI: The bottom cold water to the north of the East China Sea is the dynamic basis for the formation of the low-DO area to the southwest of Jeju Island during the fall season. The special seabed to- pography and mud area distribution off the Yangtze River estuary have a certain degree of influence on the development of the hypoxic zone. The generation and dissipation of the hypoxic zone and its distribution morphology off the Yangtze River estuary, and seasonal variation of its structure and position are a result of the synergistic effects of various factors. 展开更多
关键词 Yangtze River estuary hypoxic zone STRATIFICATION flow field environment organic decomposition
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