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我国老年失能风险研究:基于删失数据半参转换模型
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作者 李云龙 王晓军 孙韬 《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第10期122-133,共12页
老年失能风险是人口老龄化背景下值得关注的重要问题。已有研究往往忽略失能数据的删失属性,因而无法充分利用数据信息。本文提出了一种新的老年失能风险建模方法,在考虑失能数据区间删失和右删失的情况下,对中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调... 老年失能风险是人口老龄化背景下值得关注的重要问题。已有研究往往忽略失能数据的删失属性,因而无法充分利用数据信息。本文提出了一种新的老年失能风险建模方法,在考虑失能数据区间删失和右删失的情况下,对中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)数据按个体从健康状态转移到首次失能状态经历的时间进行分类,同时利用CLHLS死亡调查补充个体死亡前的失能信息。在此基础上,基于生存分析中的半参数转换失能时间模型,实现对老年失能率更准确的估计和预测。与传统模型相比,新模型将年龄、性别、教育水平等变量纳入模型,能够对不同特征人群的失能风险做更细致和精准的分析,为完善我国长期护理保险制度提供实证依据。 展开更多
关键词 长期护理保险 失能风险 删失数据 半参数转换模型
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Semi-parametric estimation for the Box-Cox transformation model with partially linear structure 被引量:1
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作者 ZHOU GuoLiang ZHOU YaHong 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE 2013年第3期459-481,共23页
The Box-Cox transformation model has been widely used in applied econometrics, positive accounting, positive finance and statistics. There is a large literature on Box-Cox transformation model with linear structure. H... The Box-Cox transformation model has been widely used in applied econometrics, positive accounting, positive finance and statistics. There is a large literature on Box-Cox transformation model with linear structure. However, there is seldom seen on the discussion for such a model with partially linear structure. Considering the importance of the partially linear model, in this paper, a relatively simple semi-parametric estimation procedure is proposed for the Box-Cox transformation model without presuming the linear functional form and without specifying any parametric form of the disturbance, which largely reduces the risk of model misspecification. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Its covariance matrix is also in a closed form, which can be easily estimated. Finally, a simulation study is conducted to see the finite sample performance of our estimator. 展开更多
关键词 Box-Cox transformation model semiparametric estimation rank condition smoothed kernel
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