It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the rel...It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2^(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.展开更多
A novel sensitive semi-quantitative virus detection technique was developed using the respiratory syncytial virus(RSV) as an example, through dark-field light scattering imaging of the surface state of the virusinvade...A novel sensitive semi-quantitative virus detection technique was developed using the respiratory syncytial virus(RSV) as an example, through dark-field light scattering imaging of the surface state of the virusinvaded host cells. In this method, anti-RSV-antibody modified gold nanoparticles(Au NPs) could bind with the invading virus on the cell membrane of the infected host cells through the specific antibody-antigen binding. Then,the host cells could be imaged by the localized surface plasmon resonance light scattering properties of Au NPs under a dark-field light scattering microscopy, which could be further used to semi-quantify the invading virus.展开更多
基金funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41375110 and 41522502)
文摘It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2^(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2011CB933600)Chongqing Fundamental and Advanced Research Project(cstc2013jcyj A50008)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(XDJK2015B029)
文摘A novel sensitive semi-quantitative virus detection technique was developed using the respiratory syncytial virus(RSV) as an example, through dark-field light scattering imaging of the surface state of the virusinvaded host cells. In this method, anti-RSV-antibody modified gold nanoparticles(Au NPs) could bind with the invading virus on the cell membrane of the infected host cells through the specific antibody-antigen binding. Then,the host cells could be imaged by the localized surface plasmon resonance light scattering properties of Au NPs under a dark-field light scattering microscopy, which could be further used to semi-quantify the invading virus.
