华南夏季大气环流的变异及其与季风降水的关系

利用华南1951～1981年的降水资料，分析了华南夏季风（4～9月）高空环流（500hPa）的配置及其变异对季风降水的影响，得出旱涝年的高空环流特征及其与华南夏季风降水的关系：在欧亚75～20°N之间，沿西北—东南向有明显遥相关；极涡变动与降水密切相关。

华南前汛期持续暴雨环流分型初步研究

采用1961—2010年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和台站观测降水量资料,按一定标准选取了华南前汛期24个持续暴雨过程;并且按基本判据确定逐年华南夏季风降水开始日期。然后依据南亚高压环流型和相对于该年夏季风降水开始的早晚,将这些暴雨过程划分为夏季风降水前、后南亚高压东部型,夏季风降水后南亚高压带状、西部型共4个类型;其中,夏季风后南亚高压西部型次数最多、平均持续时间最长。所有类型持续暴雨的相同点是:广东东北部附近均为暴雨频率和雨量高值区;暴雨期间华南150 h Pa位势高度增加、500 h Pa位势高度减少;华南处在150 h Pa偏西风急流南侧辐散区中;850 h Pa华南沿海有明显的西南气流,低层辐合在华南东北部最明显;两广沿海为可降水量大值区;华南的整层水汽输送主要呈现西南向。不同点是:夏季风后南亚高压西部型平均雨量较小,夏季风后南亚高压带状型与西部型在印度洋上存在明显的偏东风高空急流;夏季风后南亚高压类型在两广沿海的可降水量数值较大。

论全运会会期的选择

问题的由来举世瞩目的中华人民共和国第五届运动会,原定于1983年9月16日下午在上海江湾体育场举行开幕式。但是,天公不作美。那几天上海秋雨绵绵,有时到大雨程度,致使开幕式一再延期。由此带来了许多意想不到的问题,在政治、经济、体育等方面都产生了一定的影响和损失。那么,应怎样选择全运会的会期呢? 全运会会期的选择与气候关系全运会比赛日期的选择,除考虑政治、经济、体育等方面因素外。

REASONS FOR THE LATE ONSET AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWARD PERSISTENCE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 2005

Features of atmospheric circulation and thermal structures are discussed using the NCAR/NCEP data to reveal the reasons for the late onset and anomalous southward persistence of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) in 2005.The results show that three factors are crucial.First,a strong Arabian High overlaps with a high-latitude blocking high and channels strong cold air to southern Asia.Second,the Tibetan Plateau has a bigger snow cover than usual in spring and the melting of snow cools down the surface.Third,the Somali Jet breaks out at a much later date,being not conducive to convection over Indochina.The former two factors restrict atmospheric sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau and nearby regions while the third one limits latent heating over Indochina.All of the factors slow down atmospheric warming and postpone the onset of SCSSM.Long after the onset of SCSSM,strong cold air over India advances the Southwest Monsoon northward slowly,resulting in weaker convection and latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau and nearby areas.The negative feedback conversely inhibits further northward movement of Southwest Monsoon.

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature （ERSST） data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection （EAP） pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection （EUP） pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent （MC） region; positive （negative） precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific （MC）. A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong （weak） SCSSM strengthens （weakens） cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool （warm） the SST around the MC through enhanced （reduced） surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling （warming） further leads to suppressed （enhanced） convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly （easterly） in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of E1 Nino （La Nina） through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET BASED ON GRAPES MODEL AND EXPERIMENTS ON INITIAL MODEL FIELDS

The Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES), a limited-area regional model, was used to simulate the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. In view of the relatively insufficient information about the initial field in simulation predictions, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) data from a NOAA satellite were introduced to improve the initial values. By directly using the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES, two schemes for assimilation tests were designed. In the design, Test 1 (T1) assimilates both sounding and AMSU-B data, and Test 2 (T2) assimilates only the conventional sounding data, before applying the model in simulation forecasts. Comparative experiments showed that the model was very sensitive to initial fields and successful in reproducing the monsoon onset, allocation of high- and low-level wind fields during the pentad of onset, and the northward advancement of the monsoon and monsoon rain bands. The scheme, however, simulated rainfall and the location of the subtropical high with deviations from observations. The simulated location of the subtropical high was more westward and northward and the simulated rainfall for the South China Sea was larger and covered a broader area.

Relationship over southern China between the summer rainfall induced by tropical cyclones and that by monsoon

This study investigates the relationship between tropical cyclone-induced precipitation（P_（TC）） and summer monsoon-induced precipitation（P_（SM）） in southern China（SC） during June-August.The spatial patterns of the first interannual mode are uniform in sign over SC,with positive anomalies for P_（TC） and negative anomalies for P_（SM）.The background of an increase in cyclonic vorticity,an increase in RH,and a decrease in vertical wind shear over the South China Sea（SCS）-western north Pacific（WNP） provides favorable conditions for more TC genesis.The positive equatorial central Pacific SST anomaly and negative North Indian Ocean SST anomaly contribute to the anomalous cyclone over the SCS-WNP,which causes decreasing P_（SM） in SC together with an anomalous anticyclone over eastern China-Japan.By contrast,whilst the spatial patterns of the first interdecadal mode are also uniform in sign over SC,there are positive anomalies for both P_（TC） and P_（SM）.The first interdecadal principal component features significant positive correlation with the number of TCs forming in the SCS.There is a significant increase in P_（TC） and P_（SM） after early 1990 s.A positive tropical Indian Ocean（TIO） SST anomaly persists from the preceding winter to summer.During the preceding winter and spring after the early 1990 s,a positive western Pacific SST anomaly can result in TIO SST warming through vertical circulation.Then,the positive TIO SST anomaly triggers an anomalous WNP anticyclone and contributes to the interdecadal increase in SC P_（SM） in the succeeding summer.The persistent heating source over SC from May to summer related to an earlier onset of the SCS monsoon may strengthen the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon.

A DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE WEAKENING OF WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE PERIOD OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET IN 1998

The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon in 1998 occurred on May 21st. Using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data, this paper examines the physical process of the weakening of a subtropical anticyclone in West Pacific during the onset period using the Zwack-Okossi vorticity equation. Results show that during the pre-onset period, the positive vorticity advection in front of an upper tropospheric trough was the most dominant physical mechanism for the increase of the cyclonic vorticity on the 850-hPa layer over the South China Sea and its nearby region. The secondary contribution to the increase of the cyclonic vorticity was the warm-air advection. After the onset, the magnitude of the latent-heat warming term rapidly increased and its effect on the increase of the cyclonic vorticity was about the same as the positive-vorticity advection. The adiabatic term and divergence term contributed negatively to the increase of the cyclonic vorticity most of the time. Thus, the positive vorticity advection is the most important physical mechanism for the weakening of the West Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the South China Sea during the onset period.