In order to compare the sensitivity of short-range ensemble forecasts to different land-surface parameters in the South China region,three perturbation experiments related to the land surface model(LSM),initial soil m...In order to compare the sensitivity of short-range ensemble forecasts to different land-surface parameters in the South China region,three perturbation experiments related to the land surface model(LSM),initial soil moisture(ISM),and land–atmosphere coupling coefficient(LCC)were designed,and another control experiment driven by the Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)was also performed.All ensemble members were initiated at 0000 UTC each day,and integrated for 24 h for a total of 40 days from the period 1 April to 10 May 2019 based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model.The results showed that the perturbation experiment of the LSM(LSMPE)had the largest ensemble spread,as well as the lowest ensemble-mean root-mean-square error among the three sets of land-surface perturbed experiments,which indicated that it could represent more uncertainty and less error.The ensemble spread of the perturbation experiment of the ISM(ISMPE)was generally less than that of LSMPE but greater than that of LCCPE(the perturbation experiment of the LCC).In particular,although the perturbation of the LCC could not produce greater spread,it had an effective influence on the intensity of precipitation.However,the ensemble spread of all the land-surface perturbed experiments was smaller than that of GEFSPE(the control experiment).Therefore,in future,land-surface perturbations and atmospheric perturbations should be combined in the design of ensemble forecasting systems to make the model represent more uncertainties.展开更多
Based on the absolute and relative gravity observations in North China from 2009 to 2014,spatial dynamic variations of the regional gravity field are obtained. We employed the Euler deconvolution method and the theore...Based on the absolute and relative gravity observations in North China from 2009 to 2014,spatial dynamic variations of the regional gravity field are obtained. We employed the Euler deconvolution method and the theoretical model to get the best estimates of parameters. Gravity field change caused by the depth and distribution in North China is calculated by back analysis. The results show the structural index that equals 1 is suitable for inversion of the gravity variation data. The inversion results indicate that the depths of anomaly field sources are spread over the Hetao fault. The research method of this paper can be used in the quantitative study on the field source and may shed new light on the interpretations of gravity change, and also provide quantitative basis for earthquake prediction index criterions based on the gravity change.展开更多
The potential impact of climate change on international and domestic concern. This study aims water eutrophication and ecosystems is of great to analyze the impact of climate change on algal bloom problems in large ri...The potential impact of climate change on international and domestic concern. This study aims water eutrophication and ecosystems is of great to analyze the impact of climate change on algal bloom problems in large river systems by utilizing a parametric river eutrophication model that is established using indicators of climate change, hydrological regimes, water quality and nutrient loads. Specifically, the developed parametric modeling method is based on statistical and simulation methods including: Multiple Linear Regressions (MLR), Multiple Non-linear Regressions (MNR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on Back-propagation (BP) algorithms, as well as an integrated river eutrophication model. The developed model was applied to Han River, which is one of the major sources of fresh water in Wuhan City, China. The impacts of climate change and human activities on the occurrence mechanisms of algal blooms in the Hart River were identified by scenarios analysis. The individual assessment result indicates that the waste nutrient P load has the most significant impact (14.82%), followed by the flow rate (5.56%) and then by temperature (3.7%). For the integrated climate change assessment, it has been found that there is a significant impact (20.37%) when waste load increases and flow rate decreases at the same time. This is followed by increases but flow rate decreases, increase of both waste load and the impact is predicted to be 11 temperature (15.82%). If temperature 11%. The final results point to human activities as a significant influence on water quality and the Han River ecosystem, temperature is also one of the main factors which directly contribute to algal blooms in Han River. The results in present study are expected to give theoretical supports for further relevant research on water eutrophication.展开更多
The heterogeneous hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide(N2O5)plays an important role in regulating NOx.The N2O5 uptake coefficient,γ(N2O5),was determined using an iterative box model that was constrained to observationa...The heterogeneous hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide(N2O5)plays an important role in regulating NOx.The N2O5 uptake coefficient,γ(N2O5),was determined using an iterative box model that was constrained to observational data obtained in suburban Beijing from February to March 2016.The box model determined 2289 individualγ(N2O5)values that varied from<0.001 to 0.02 with an average value of 0.0046±0.0039(and a median value of 0.0032).We found the derived winterγ(N2O5)values in Beijing were relatively low as compared to values reported in previous field studies conducted during winter in Hong Kong(average value of 0.014)and the eastern U.S.coast(median value of 0.0143).In our study,field evidence of the suppression ofγ(N2O5)values due to pNO3-content,organics and the enhancement by aerosol liquid water content(ALWC)is in line with previous laboratory study results.Low ALWC,high pNO3-content,and particle morphology(inorganic core with an organic shell)accounted for the lowγ(N2O5)values in the North China Plain(NCP)during wintertime.The field-derivedγ(N2O5)values are well reproduced by a revised parameterization method,which includes the aerosol size distribution,ALWC,nitrate and organic coating,suggesting the feasibility of comprehensive parameterization in the NCP during wintertime.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program on the Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters[grant number 2017YFC1502103]the Key Special Project for the Introducing Talents Team of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)[grant number GML2019ZD0601]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41875136,41305099,and 41801019].
文摘In order to compare the sensitivity of short-range ensemble forecasts to different land-surface parameters in the South China region,three perturbation experiments related to the land surface model(LSM),initial soil moisture(ISM),and land–atmosphere coupling coefficient(LCC)were designed,and another control experiment driven by the Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)was also performed.All ensemble members were initiated at 0000 UTC each day,and integrated for 24 h for a total of 40 days from the period 1 April to 10 May 2019 based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model.The results showed that the perturbation experiment of the LSM(LSMPE)had the largest ensemble spread,as well as the lowest ensemble-mean root-mean-square error among the three sets of land-surface perturbed experiments,which indicated that it could represent more uncertainty and less error.The ensemble spread of the perturbation experiment of the ISM(ISMPE)was generally less than that of LSMPE but greater than that of LCCPE(the perturbation experiment of the LCC).In particular,although the perturbation of the LCC could not produce greater spread,it had an effective influence on the intensity of precipitation.However,the ensemble spread of all the land-surface perturbed experiments was smaller than that of GEFSPE(the control experiment).Therefore,in future,land-surface perturbations and atmospheric perturbations should be combined in the design of ensemble forecasting systems to make the model represent more uncertainties.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China(61627824,41274083)the Youth Foundation of Earthquake Prediction(2017010227)
文摘Based on the absolute and relative gravity observations in North China from 2009 to 2014,spatial dynamic variations of the regional gravity field are obtained. We employed the Euler deconvolution method and the theoretical model to get the best estimates of parameters. Gravity field change caused by the depth and distribution in North China is calculated by back analysis. The results show the structural index that equals 1 is suitable for inversion of the gravity variation data. The inversion results indicate that the depths of anomaly field sources are spread over the Hetao fault. The research method of this paper can be used in the quantitative study on the field source and may shed new light on the interpretations of gravity change, and also provide quantitative basis for earthquake prediction index criterions based on the gravity change.
基金supported by the Commonweal Project (200801001) of Ministry of Water Resources, People’s Republic of China
文摘The potential impact of climate change on international and domestic concern. This study aims water eutrophication and ecosystems is of great to analyze the impact of climate change on algal bloom problems in large river systems by utilizing a parametric river eutrophication model that is established using indicators of climate change, hydrological regimes, water quality and nutrient loads. Specifically, the developed parametric modeling method is based on statistical and simulation methods including: Multiple Linear Regressions (MLR), Multiple Non-linear Regressions (MNR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on Back-propagation (BP) algorithms, as well as an integrated river eutrophication model. The developed model was applied to Han River, which is one of the major sources of fresh water in Wuhan City, China. The impacts of climate change and human activities on the occurrence mechanisms of algal blooms in the Hart River were identified by scenarios analysis. The individual assessment result indicates that the waste nutrient P load has the most significant impact (14.82%), followed by the flow rate (5.56%) and then by temperature (3.7%). For the integrated climate change assessment, it has been found that there is a significant impact (20.37%) when waste load increases and flow rate decreases at the same time. This is followed by increases but flow rate decreases, increase of both waste load and the impact is predicted to be 11 temperature (15.82%). If temperature 11%. The final results point to human activities as a significant influence on water quality and the Han River ecosystem, temperature is also one of the main factors which directly contribute to algal blooms in Han River. The results in present study are expected to give theoretical supports for further relevant research on water eutrophication.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(21976006,41907185,91844301,91544225)Beijing Natural Science Foundation,China(JQ19031)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2018M641095,2019T120023)。
文摘The heterogeneous hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide(N2O5)plays an important role in regulating NOx.The N2O5 uptake coefficient,γ(N2O5),was determined using an iterative box model that was constrained to observational data obtained in suburban Beijing from February to March 2016.The box model determined 2289 individualγ(N2O5)values that varied from<0.001 to 0.02 with an average value of 0.0046±0.0039(and a median value of 0.0032).We found the derived winterγ(N2O5)values in Beijing were relatively low as compared to values reported in previous field studies conducted during winter in Hong Kong(average value of 0.014)and the eastern U.S.coast(median value of 0.0143).In our study,field evidence of the suppression ofγ(N2O5)values due to pNO3-content,organics and the enhancement by aerosol liquid water content(ALWC)is in line with previous laboratory study results.Low ALWC,high pNO3-content,and particle morphology(inorganic core with an organic shell)accounted for the lowγ(N2O5)values in the North China Plain(NCP)during wintertime.The field-derivedγ(N2O5)values are well reproduced by a revised parameterization method,which includes the aerosol size distribution,ALWC,nitrate and organic coating,suggesting the feasibility of comprehensive parameterization in the NCP during wintertime.