Background error covariance(BEC)plays an essential role in variational data assimilation.Most variational data assimilation systems still use static BEC.Actually,the characteristics of BEC vary with season,day,and eve...Background error covariance(BEC)plays an essential role in variational data assimilation.Most variational data assimilation systems still use static BEC.Actually,the characteristics of BEC vary with season,day,and even hour of the background.National Meteorological Center-based diurnally varying BECs had been proposed,but the diurnal variation characteristics were gained by climatic samples.Ensemble methods can obtain the background error characteristics that suit the samples in the current moment.Therefore,to gain more reasonable diurnally varying BECs,in this study,ensemble-based diurnally varying BECs are generated and the diurnal variation characteristics are discussed.Their impacts are then evaluated by cycling data assimilation and forecasting experiments for a week based on the operational China Meteorological Administration-Beijing system.Clear diurnal variation in the standard deviation of ensemble forecasts and ensemble-based BECs can be identified,consistent with the diurnal variation characteristics of the atmosphere.The results of one-week cycling data assimilation and forecasting show that the application of diurnally varying BECs reduces the RMSEs in the analysis and 6-h forecast.Detailed analysis of a convective rainfall case shows that the distribution of the accumulated precipitation forecast using the diurnally varying BECs is closer to the observation than using the static BEC.Besides,the cycle-averaged precipitation scores in all magnitudes are improved,especially for the heavy precipitation,indicating the potential of using diurnally varying BEC in operational applications.展开更多
基金This work was jointly sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42075148]the Outreach Projects of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather[grant number 2021LASWA08]+1 种基金the Outreach Projects of the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster[grant number KLME202209]supported by the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST).
文摘Background error covariance(BEC)plays an essential role in variational data assimilation.Most variational data assimilation systems still use static BEC.Actually,the characteristics of BEC vary with season,day,and even hour of the background.National Meteorological Center-based diurnally varying BECs had been proposed,but the diurnal variation characteristics were gained by climatic samples.Ensemble methods can obtain the background error characteristics that suit the samples in the current moment.Therefore,to gain more reasonable diurnally varying BECs,in this study,ensemble-based diurnally varying BECs are generated and the diurnal variation characteristics are discussed.Their impacts are then evaluated by cycling data assimilation and forecasting experiments for a week based on the operational China Meteorological Administration-Beijing system.Clear diurnal variation in the standard deviation of ensemble forecasts and ensemble-based BECs can be identified,consistent with the diurnal variation characteristics of the atmosphere.The results of one-week cycling data assimilation and forecasting show that the application of diurnally varying BECs reduces the RMSEs in the analysis and 6-h forecast.Detailed analysis of a convective rainfall case shows that the distribution of the accumulated precipitation forecast using the diurnally varying BECs is closer to the observation than using the static BEC.Besides,the cycle-averaged precipitation scores in all magnitudes are improved,especially for the heavy precipitation,indicating the potential of using diurnally varying BEC in operational applications.
