This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We ...This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using second generation tests which allow cross section dependency among series and panel unit root test based on structural break advanced by Carrion-i-Silvestre, Barrio-Castro and Lopez-Bazo （2005）. We find series as a stationary process with structural breaks according to Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, while we find series as unit root process with second generation panel unit root test. According to the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, we find the evidence of absence of hysteresis in analyzed countries. As a result, temporary shocks have temporary effects on unemployment instead of permanent effect. Structural factors can affect the natural rate of unemployment and, therefore, unemployment would be stationary around a process that is subject to structural breaks. So, there still exists a unique natural rate of unemployment to which the economy eventually will converge.展开更多
This paper investigates the empirical validity of the Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis for American, European and Asian stock markets. Random Walk Hypothesis is used to prove weak form efficiency in American, Eur...This paper investigates the empirical validity of the Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis for American, European and Asian stock markets. Random Walk Hypothesis is used to prove weak form efficiency in American, European and Asian stock indices. ADF and PP Unit Root Tests have been used to test unit root in time series of daily data of American, European and Asian stock indices. Results show that sample of stock markets are weak-form efficient in terms of the Random Walk Hypothesis.展开更多
In this paper, vector autoregressive （VAR） models have been recognized for the selected indicators of Dhaka stock exchange （DSE）. Bangladesh uses the micro economic variables, such as stock trade, invested stock c...In this paper, vector autoregressive （VAR） models have been recognized for the selected indicators of Dhaka stock exchange （DSE）. Bangladesh uses the micro economic variables, such as stock trade, invested stock capital, stock volume, current market value, and DSE general indexes which have the direct impact on DSE prices. The data were collected for the period from June 2004 to July 2013 as the basis on daily scale. But to get the maximum explorative information and reduction of volatility, the data have been transformed to the monthly scale. The outliers and extreme values of the study variables are detected through box and whisker plot. To detect the unit root property of the study variables, various unit root tests have been applied. The forecast performance of the different VAR models is compared to have the minimum residual. Moreover, the dynamics of this financial market is analyzed through Granger causality and impulse response analysis.展开更多
This paper investigates the short- and long-run causality relationship between Islamic banking and the economic growth. The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between the economic growth and Islami...This paper investigates the short- and long-run causality relationship between Islamic banking and the economic growth. The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between the economic growth and Islamic banking. The dataset used covers the Asia countries over the period of 1980-2009. The unit root test Im, Pesaran, and Shin （IPS） （2003） confirms that all of the variables that the authors use in the equation below are stationary. The empirical result of the Granger causality test shows a bidirectional relationship between Islamic banking and the economic growth and also a bidirectional relationship between the economic growth and export.展开更多
This paper aims to examine the existence of calendar anomalies including month-of-year effect, turn-of-month effect, and weekend effect in Thai stock market. The stock return is computed from SET index during 1988 to ...This paper aims to examine the existence of calendar anomalies including month-of-year effect, turn-of-month effect, and weekend effect in Thai stock market. The stock return is computed from SET index during 1988 to 2009 and the SET50 index gathered since it was created in 1995. The unit root test is performed to ensure that the stock return series have no unit root. The multiple regression techniques using dummy variables are employed to test the difference of the return during each calendar anomalies period. If the regression model suffers from conditional heteroskedasticity, the GARCH （1, 1） model will be used instead of normal ordinary least square regression. It was found that the calendar anomalies exist in Thai stock market. The return is abnormally high during December and January, which can be addressed to be the turn-of-year effect. The return during the turn-of-month period, which can be defined as the last trading day and the first four trading days of the following months, is also abnormally high. Finally, the return is also abnormally high on Fridays but abnormally low on Mondays, which is addressed as weekend effect. This may create the opportunity to make above-average profit to investors exploiting these calendar anomalies. Although these calendar anomalies may be difficult to be exploited in practice because of transaction costs and ability to replicate the stock index, the existing evidence of calendar anomalies can help investors as the clue for the timing of investment.展开更多
The 1989 and following years were the periods in which many important economic and political tumovers took place in the world. That was the time when Berlin Wall fell down with scattering the Eastern block and many po...The 1989 and following years were the periods in which many important economic and political tumovers took place in the world. That was the time when Berlin Wall fell down with scattering the Eastern block and many politically independent states came into being, at the same time, ongoing about 70 years socialist system also started to change into liberal system. The constituted 27 states in 1991 were tended to liberal economic system instead of socialist economy, and these states were called as transition economies. In this study, the relationship between indebtedness and growth rate of transition countries were analyzed by panel autoregressive distributed lag model （ARDL）. Before panel ARDL application, stationary properties of the variables have been checked with first and second generation unit root test. For the second generation unit root tests, CADF tests have been used. Also cross section dependency has been examined by LM tests.展开更多
In this paper, we show the invariance principle for the partial sum processes of fractionally integrated processes, otherwise known as I(d + m) processes, where |d| < 1/2 and m is a nonnegative integer, with strong...In this paper, we show the invariance principle for the partial sum processes of fractionally integrated processes, otherwise known as I(d + m) processes, where |d| < 1/2 and m is a nonnegative integer, with strong near-epoch dependent innovations. The results are applied to the test of unit root. The conditions given improve previous results in the literature concerning fractionally integrated processes.展开更多
文摘This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using second generation tests which allow cross section dependency among series and panel unit root test based on structural break advanced by Carrion-i-Silvestre, Barrio-Castro and Lopez-Bazo （2005）. We find series as a stationary process with structural breaks according to Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, while we find series as unit root process with second generation panel unit root test. According to the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, we find the evidence of absence of hysteresis in analyzed countries. As a result, temporary shocks have temporary effects on unemployment instead of permanent effect. Structural factors can affect the natural rate of unemployment and, therefore, unemployment would be stationary around a process that is subject to structural breaks. So, there still exists a unique natural rate of unemployment to which the economy eventually will converge.
文摘This paper investigates the empirical validity of the Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis for American, European and Asian stock markets. Random Walk Hypothesis is used to prove weak form efficiency in American, European and Asian stock indices. ADF and PP Unit Root Tests have been used to test unit root in time series of daily data of American, European and Asian stock indices. Results show that sample of stock markets are weak-form efficient in terms of the Random Walk Hypothesis.
文摘In this paper, vector autoregressive （VAR） models have been recognized for the selected indicators of Dhaka stock exchange （DSE）. Bangladesh uses the micro economic variables, such as stock trade, invested stock capital, stock volume, current market value, and DSE general indexes which have the direct impact on DSE prices. The data were collected for the period from June 2004 to July 2013 as the basis on daily scale. But to get the maximum explorative information and reduction of volatility, the data have been transformed to the monthly scale. The outliers and extreme values of the study variables are detected through box and whisker plot. To detect the unit root property of the study variables, various unit root tests have been applied. The forecast performance of the different VAR models is compared to have the minimum residual. Moreover, the dynamics of this financial market is analyzed through Granger causality and impulse response analysis.
文摘This paper investigates the short- and long-run causality relationship between Islamic banking and the economic growth. The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between the economic growth and Islamic banking. The dataset used covers the Asia countries over the period of 1980-2009. The unit root test Im, Pesaran, and Shin （IPS） （2003） confirms that all of the variables that the authors use in the equation below are stationary. The empirical result of the Granger causality test shows a bidirectional relationship between Islamic banking and the economic growth and also a bidirectional relationship between the economic growth and export.
文摘This paper aims to examine the existence of calendar anomalies including month-of-year effect, turn-of-month effect, and weekend effect in Thai stock market. The stock return is computed from SET index during 1988 to 2009 and the SET50 index gathered since it was created in 1995. The unit root test is performed to ensure that the stock return series have no unit root. The multiple regression techniques using dummy variables are employed to test the difference of the return during each calendar anomalies period. If the regression model suffers from conditional heteroskedasticity, the GARCH （1, 1） model will be used instead of normal ordinary least square regression. It was found that the calendar anomalies exist in Thai stock market. The return is abnormally high during December and January, which can be addressed to be the turn-of-year effect. The return during the turn-of-month period, which can be defined as the last trading day and the first four trading days of the following months, is also abnormally high. Finally, the return is also abnormally high on Fridays but abnormally low on Mondays, which is addressed as weekend effect. This may create the opportunity to make above-average profit to investors exploiting these calendar anomalies. Although these calendar anomalies may be difficult to be exploited in practice because of transaction costs and ability to replicate the stock index, the existing evidence of calendar anomalies can help investors as the clue for the timing of investment.
文摘The 1989 and following years were the periods in which many important economic and political tumovers took place in the world. That was the time when Berlin Wall fell down with scattering the Eastern block and many politically independent states came into being, at the same time, ongoing about 70 years socialist system also started to change into liberal system. The constituted 27 states in 1991 were tended to liberal economic system instead of socialist economy, and these states were called as transition economies. In this study, the relationship between indebtedness and growth rate of transition countries were analyzed by panel autoregressive distributed lag model （ARDL）. Before panel ARDL application, stationary properties of the variables have been checked with first and second generation unit root test. For the second generation unit root tests, CADF tests have been used. Also cross section dependency has been examined by LM tests.
基金supported by National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No.07CTJ001)National Research Project for Statistics (Grant No. 2009LY056)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10901136, 71072113)
文摘In this paper, we show the invariance principle for the partial sum processes of fractionally integrated processes, otherwise known as I(d + m) processes, where |d| < 1/2 and m is a nonnegative integer, with strong near-epoch dependent innovations. The results are applied to the test of unit root. The conditions given improve previous results in the literature concerning fractionally integrated processes.
