中国-南亚中东应对非传统安全问题研讨会综述

当前,中国及南亚、中东地区面临着非常严峻的恐怖主义、网络安全等一系列非传统安全问题。经公安部领导批准,中国—南亚中东应对非传统安全问题研讨会于2015年12月7日至10日在浙江警察学院召开。来自国内外的专家学者和执法官员围绕"反恐和地区安全形势""打击毒品、网络和诈骗犯罪"等议题,介绍了本国与地区非传统安全问题现状、相关司法制度以及经验和教训,并就进一步打击相关犯罪和开展国际执法合作等议题进行了深入广泛的交流研讨。

世界油气格局新特点及其影响分析

20世纪后期特别是页岩革命以来,世界油气生产和消费的空间格局发生了重大变化。最明显的变化是石油生产和消费中心趋于多元化,消费中心向苏伊士以东,特别是东亚-南亚-中东弧形带转移,促使中东石油出口的主要方向由西方转向东方,同时国际贸易更加灵活。天然气发展更快,特别是液化天然气的发展使天然气形成基本统一的国际市场。世界油气生产持续增长和发达国家消费增长停滞甚至萎缩导致的供需宽平衡、供大于需成为今后一段时期的基本态势,油气价格将维持在相对较低的水平。油气进口国在国际市场上的影响力相对增加,这有利于中国参与国际市场的运作。油气格局的变化促进了油气政治属性的淡化和商品属性的凸显;期货交易的发展增强了油气的金融属性,使金融运作对油气市场的影响增加。

Observed Diurnal Cycle of Summer Precipitation over South Asia and East Asia Based on CMORPH and TRMM Satellite Data

The characteristics of the summer precipitation diurnal cycle over South Asia and East Asia during 2001–13 are investigated based on the high spatiotemporal resolution estimates of the CPC(Climate Prediction Center) Morphing(CMORPH) technique. The results show that summer precipitation over South Asia and East Asia possesses a remarkable diurnal cycle, with obvious regional differences. Over the coastal areas, plateau, and high mountains, summer precipitation peaks in the late afternoon; while over low altitude areas, such as valleys, basins, and inshore seas, it peaks during midnight to early morning. In addition to these general features consistent with previous studies, the high resolution CMORPH technique can depict finer regional details, such as the less coherent phase pattern over a few regions. Besides, through comparative analysis of the diurnal cycle strength and precipitation fields, the authors find that for humid areas the summer precipitation diurnal cycle is especially significant over Southeast China, the Sichuan Basin, Hainan Province, Taiwan Province, the Philippines, and Indonesia. And it is relatively weak over the south of Northeast China, central East China, Yunnan Province, the central Indian Peninsula, and most oceanic areas. Comparisons between two satellite datasets—those of the CMORPH and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) 3B42 products—are also presented. For summer precipitation and the main diurnal cycle features, the results from both products agree over most regions, except a few areas, e.g., the Tibetan Plateau.

Modeling of the Second Indirect Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols in East Asia

This study investigated the second indirect climatic effect of anthropogenic aerosols,including sulfate,organic carbon(OC) ,and black carbon(BC) ,over East Asia.The seasonal variation of the climatic response to the second indirect effect was also characterized.The simulation period for this study was 2006.Due to a decrease in autoconversion rate from cloud water to rain as a result of aerosols,the cloud liquid water path(LWP) ,and radiative flux(RF) at the top of the atmosphere(TOA) changed dramatically,increasing by 14.3 g m-2 and decreasing by-4.1 W m-2 in terms of domain and annual average.Both LWP and RF changed most in autumn. There were strong decreases in ground temperature in Southwest China,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in spring and autumn,while maximum cooling of up to-1.5 K occurred in the Chongqing district.The regional and annual mean change in ground temperature reached-0.2 K over eastern China.In all seasons except summer,precipitation generally decreased in most areas north of the Yangtze River,whereas precipitation changed little in South China.Precipitation changed most in summer,with alternating bands of increasing(～40 mm) and decreasing(～40 mm) precipitation appearing in eastern China.Precipitation decreased by 1.5-40 mm over large areas of Northeast China and the Huabei Plain.The domain and annual mean change in precipitation was approximately-0.3 mm over eastern China.The maximum reduction in precipitation occurred in summer,with mean absolute and relative changes of-1.2 mm and-3.8%over eastern China.This study revealed considerable climate responses to the second indirect effect of aerosols over specific regions of China.

DETERMINATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET AND EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX

Results of the definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset date and East Asian summermonsoon index in recent years are summarized in this paper. And more questions to be resolved are introducedlater.

Strengthened influence of the East Asian trough on spring extreme precipitation variability over eastern Southwest China after the late 1980s

The relationship between variations in the East Asian trough(EAT)intensity and spring extreme precipitation over Southwest China(SWC)during 1961-2020 is investigated.The results indicate that there is an interdecadal increase in the relationship between the EAT and spring extreme precipitation over eastern SWC around the late1980 s.During the latter period,the weak(strong)EAT corresponds to a strong and large-scale anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)over the East Asia-Northwest Pacific region.The EAT-related anomalous southerlies(northerlies)dominate eastern SWC,leading to significant upward(downward)motion and moisture convergence(divergence)over the region,providing favorable(unfavorable)dynamic and moisture conditions for extreme precipitation over eastern SWC.In contrast,during the former period,the EAT-related circulation anomalies are weak and cover a relatively smaller region,which cannot significantly affect the moisture and dynamic conditions over eastern SWC;therefore,the response in extreme precipitation over eastern SWC to EAT is weak over the period.The interdecadal change in the relationship between eastern SWC spring extreme precipitation and the EAT could be related to the interdecadal change in the EAT variability.The large(small)variability of the EAT is associated with significant(insignificant)changes in spring extreme precipitation over eastern SWC during the latter(former)period.

Optically Stimulated Luminescence Dating of Sediments from the Pearl River Delta, Southeast China

The PRD （Pearl River Delta） was subjected to two transgressions respectively in the latest Pleistocene and Holocene. Position of coastal line of the latest Pleistocene transgression in some localities, especially at the center part of PRD is still uncertain. Thus quaternary sandy sediments in the central PRD are dated by OSL Optically Stimulated Luminescence） for determining the ancient coastal line. Samples are from Xiaohushan Hill at the center of PRD, where quaternary sediments deposited on a wave-cut platlbrm consist of two kinds of sediments： marine muddy-silt on the top and alluvial fine-sand in the lower part. The former is dated at 5.0-5.5 ka, which defines the time of Holocene transgression in the PRD. The alluvial fine-sand in the part is dated at 22-26 ka. For the alluvial fine-sand rests directly on a wave-cut platform, thus this wave-cut platform should have been existed before deposit of alluvial sand, i.e., formed during an earlier marine transgression that may have culminated in the sea level high at about 40 ka. The optically stimulated luminescence results are consistent with geological observations and compatible with TL （thermoluminescence） and ^14C ages from the same layers at other localities of the PRD.

Model Analysis of the Anthropogenic Aerosol Effect on Clouds over East Asia

A coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model WRF-Chem （Weather Research and Forecast model coupled with Chemistry） was used to conduct a pair of simulations with present-day （PD） and preindustrial （P1） emissions over East Asia to examine the aerosol indirect effect on clouds. As a result of an increase in aerosols in January, the cloud droplet number increased by 650 cm-3 over the ocean and East China, 400 cm-3 over Central and Southwest China, and less than 200 cm-3 over North China. The cloud liquid water path （LWP） increased by 40-60 g m-2 over the ocean and Southeast China and 30 g m-2 over Central China; the LWP in- creased less than 5 g m-2 or decreased by 5 g m2 over North China. The effective radius （Re） decreased by more than 4 pm over Southwest, Central, and Southeast China and 2 pm over North China. In July, variations in cloud properties were more uniform; the cloud droplet number increased by approximately 250400 cm-3, the LWP increased by approximately 30-50 g m 2, and Re decreased by approximately 3 μm over most regions of China. In response to cloud property changes from PI to PD, shortwave （SW） cloud radiative m-2 over the ocean and 10 forcing strengthened by 30 W W m-2 over Southeast China, and it weakened slightly by approximately 2-10 W m-2 over Central and Southwest China in January. In July, SW cloud radiative forcing strengthened by 15 W m-2 over Southeast and North China and weakened by l0 W m-2 over Central China. The different responses of SW cloud radiative forcing in different regions was related to cloud feedbacks and natural variability.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE WINTER EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING IN SOUTHERN CHINA

Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around i99I, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate wanning. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate wanning was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastem China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastem China.

The Effect of Training Package Development for Secondary School Students in Thailand Toward ASEAN Community

The purposes of this research were： （1） to create a training package to prepare secondary school students in northeastern of Thailand toward ASEAN （Association of Southeast Asian Nations） Community; （2） to compare the knowledge of secondary school students toward ASEAN before and after use training package; and （3） the expectations of the students in the northeast of their own preparation for the ASEAN community. Experimental research was used in this research. The subject was including 2,000 students who were randomly divided into groups of seven provinces. The statistics used in data analysis were percentage, average, standard deviation, and T-test. The research results showed that： （1） a training package to prepare secondary school students in northeastern of Thailand toward ASEAN Community, the effectiveness index （E.I.） was .57, according to the established criteria; （2） a comparison of pretest and post-test results found the use of cognitive training may vary, statistically significant at the .05 level; （3） an expectation of the secondary school students in the preparation of role into ASEAN Community found that the students who participated in a concept reflect that the knowledge and attitudes to prepare themselves for the ASEAN community.

Impact of two types of La Nia on boreal autumn rainfall around Southeast Asia and Australia

The distinct influences of eastern Pacific （EP） and central Pacific （CP） La Nina on rainfall anomalies over Southeast Asia and Australia in boreal autumn （September to November） are explored in this study. Composite results reveal that CP La Nina gives rise to significant and severe flooding over Southeast Asia and Australia, whereas EP La Nina fails to exert any evident impacts on rainfall over this region. This difference can be attributed to the distinct features of cooling sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） between EP and CP La Nina. With a more westward location and stronger intensity of the negative SSTAs during CP La Nina autumn, the highest and lowest SLP anomalies are substantially enhanced and shift westwards too, further causing intense easterly winds over the western Pacific and westerly anomalies over the Indian Ocean driven by this SLP gradient. Subsequently, robust low-level convergence and high-level divergence is observed over the Maritime Continent and Australia, resulting in significant above-normal rainfall anomalies in those regions. In contrast, weak and eastern Pacific-confined cooling SSTAs during EP La Nina produce correspondingly weak low-level convergence over the Maritime Continent conditions that make it hard for significant rainfall anomalies to arise.

The spatial distribution of archaeal lipids in a mesoscale subtropical watershed, Southeast China

Archaea play an important role in global carbon and nitrogen cycles. Archaeal lipids, such as isoprenoid glycerol diakyl glycerol tetraethers(i GDGTs), are important biomarkers tracing change in archaeal community structure and biogeochemical processes in the natural environments. In this research, the spatial distributions of archaeal lipids in the surface sediments of the Jiulong River(JR) and the Jiulong River estuary(JRE) were examined. GDGT-0(containing zero cyclopentyl ring) and crenarchaeol were the most abundant i GDGTs in the JR and JRE. From the rivers to the estuary, the total i GDGTs, GDGT-0, crenarchaeol and archaeol concentrations showed significant spatial variation; in particular, GDGT-0 and archaeol in the river may be predominantly derived in situ from methanogens, whereas crenarchaeol in the estuary mainly derived in situ from Thaumarchaeota. We inferred that archaeal community was dominated by methanogens in the Jiulong River and by Thaumarchaeota in the Jiulong River estuary, which are consistent with change in archaeal community structure observed in other estuarine environments.