In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackl...In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackled by the NB component）, unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation （captured by the CAR process）, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic （AADT） per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.展开更多
The mean path length(MPL)of photons is a critical parameter to calculate tissue absorption coefficient as well as blood oxygenation using modified Beer-Lambert law,where in the differential path factor(DPF)is often as...The mean path length(MPL)of photons is a critical parameter to calculate tissue absorption coefficient as well as blood oxygenation using modified Beer-Lambert law,where in the differential path factor(DPF)is often assumed as constant over range of tissue absorption.By utilizing the Monte Carlo(MC)simulation of photon migrations in the leg,this study used four approaches to estimate MPL,and compared them with that determined by the MPL definition.The simulation results indicate that the DPF is remarkably affected by tissue absorption,at approximate 10% variation.A linear model is suggested to calculate MPL for measurements of tissue absorption as well as blood oxygenation using modified Beer-Lambert law.展开更多
This study aimed to compare the distribution patterns and trends of plant parts used among different groups of medicinal plants, geographical regions,and between medicinal plants and all vascular plants.We used the pu...This study aimed to compare the distribution patterns and trends of plant parts used among different groups of medicinal plants, geographical regions,and between medicinal plants and all vascular plants.We used the published sources for elevation records of 2,331 medicinal plant species to interpolate presence between minimum and maximum elevations and estimated medicinal plant richness for each 100-m elevational band. Monte Carlo simulations were used to test whether differences in elevational distribution between different groups of medicinal plants were significant. Total number of medicinal plants as well as different groups showed unimodal relationship with elevation. The elevational distributions of medicinal plants significantly differ between regions and between medicinal plant groups.When comparing the richness of all medicinal plants to all vascular plants,Monte Carlo simulations indicated that the numbers of medicinal plants are higher than expected at low elevations.The highest richness of medicinal plants at low elevation could be possibly due to favorable environmental factors such as high temperature, rainfall,sunlight or due to higher density of human population and thus higher pressure on use of any plants in lower elevations.展开更多
A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hy-drologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which fu...A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hy-drologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which further leads to the uncertainty of forecast results of a hydrologic model. Working with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based Adaptive Metropolis method (AM-MCMC) was used to study parameter uncertainty of Nash model, while the probabilistic flood forecasting was made with the simu-lated samples of parameters of Nash model. The results of a case study shows that the AM-MCMC based on BFS proposed in this paper is suitable to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters of Nash model according to the known information of the parameters. The use of Nash model and AM-MCMC based on BFS was able to make the probabilistic flood forecast as well as to find the mean and variance of flood discharge, which may be useful to estimate the risk of flood control decision.展开更多
Efficient modelling approaches capable of predicting the behavior and effects of nanoparticles in cement-based materials are required for conducting relevant experiments.From the microstructural characterization of a ...Efficient modelling approaches capable of predicting the behavior and effects of nanoparticles in cement-based materials are required for conducting relevant experiments.From the microstructural characterization of a cement-nanoparticle system,this paper investigates the potential of cell-based weighted random-walk method to establish statistically significant relationships between chemical bonding and diffusion processes of nanoparticles within cement matrix.LaSr_(0.5)C_(0.5)O_(3)(LSCO)nanoparticles were employed to develop a discrete event system that accounts for the behavior of individual cells where nanoparticles and cement components were expected to interact.The stochastic model is based on annihilation(loss)and creation(gain)of a bond in the cell.The model considers both chemical reactions and transport mechanism of nanoparticles from cementitious cells,along with cement hydration process.This approach may be useful for simulating nanoparticle transport in complex 2D cement-based materials systems.展开更多
We introduce the potential-decomposition strategy （PDS）, which can be used in Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. PDS can be designed to make particles move in a modified potential that favors diffusion in...We introduce the potential-decomposition strategy （PDS）, which can be used in Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. PDS can be designed to make particles move in a modified potential that favors diffusion in phase space, then, by rejecting some trial samples, the target distributions can be sampled in an unbiased manner. Furthermore, if the accepted trial samples are insumcient, they can be recycled as initial states to form more unbiased samples. This strategy can greatly improve efficiency when the original potential has multiple metastable states separated by large barriers. We apply PDS to the 2d Ising model and a double-well potential model with a large barrier, demonstrating in these two representative examples that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.展开更多
Presented is a new testing system based on using the factor models and self-organizing feature maps as well as the method of filtering undesirable environment influence. Testing process is described by the factor mode...Presented is a new testing system based on using the factor models and self-organizing feature maps as well as the method of filtering undesirable environment influence. Testing process is described by the factor model with simplex structure, which represents the influences of genetics and environmental factors on the observed parameters - the answers to the questions of the test subjects in one case and for the time, which is spent on responding to each test question to another. The Monte Carlo method is applied to get sufficient samples for training self-organizing feature maps, which are used to estimate model goodness-of-fit measures and, consequently, ability level. A prototype of the system is implemented using the Raven＇s Progressive Matrices （Advanced Progressive Matrices） - an intelligence test of abstract reasoning. Elimination of environment influence results is performed by comparing the observed and predicted answers to the test tasks using the Kalman filter, which is adapted to solve the problem. The testing procedure is optimized by reducing the number of tasks using the distribution of measures to belong to different ability levels after performing each test task provided the required level of conclusion reliability is obtained.展开更多
Scheduling is a major concern in construction planning and management, and current construction simulation research typically targets the shortest total duration. However, uncertainties are inevitable in actual constr...Scheduling is a major concern in construction planning and management, and current construction simulation research typically targets the shortest total duration. However, uncertainties are inevitable in actual construction, which may lead to discrepancies between the actual and planned schedules and increase the risk of total duration delay. Therefore, developing a robust construction scheduling technique is of vital importance for mitigating disturbance and improving completion probability. In the present study, the authors propose a robustness analysis method that involves underground powerhouse construction simulation based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) method. Specifically, the MCMC method samples construction disturbances by considering the interrelationship between the states of parameters through a Markov state transition probability matrix, which is more robust and efficient than traditional sampling methods such as the Monte Carlo(MC) method. Additionally, a hierarchical simulation model coupling critical path method(CPM) and a cycle operation network(CYCLONE) is built, using which construction duration and robustness criteria can be calculated. Furthermore, a detailed measurement method is presented to quantize the robustness of underground powerhouse construction, and the setting model of the time buffer is proposed based on the MCMC method. The application of this methodology not only considers duration but also robustness, providing scientific guidance for engineering decision making. We analyzed a case study project to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed methodology.展开更多
Studying different theoretical properties of epidemiological models has been widely addressed, while numerical studies and especially the calibration of models, which are often complicated and loaded with a high numbe...Studying different theoretical properties of epidemiological models has been widely addressed, while numerical studies and especially the calibration of models, which are often complicated and loaded with a high number of unknown parameters, against mea- sured data have received less attention. In this paper, we describe how a combination of simulated data and Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） methods can be used to study the identifiability of model parameters with different type of measurements. Three known models are used as case studies to illustrate the importance of parameter identi- fiability： a basic SIR model, an influenza model with vaccination and treatment and a HIV-Malaria co-infection model. The analysis reveals that calibration of complex models commonly studied in mathematical epidemiology, such as the HIV Malaria co-dynamics model, can be difficult or impossible, even if the system would be fully observed. The pre- sented approach provides a tool for design and optimization of real-life field campaigns of collecting data, as well as for model selection.展开更多
Current observations indicate that 95% of the energy density in the universe is the unknown dark component.The dark component is considered composed of two fluids:dark matter and dark energy.Or it is a mixture of thes...Current observations indicate that 95% of the energy density in the universe is the unknown dark component.The dark component is considered composed of two fluids:dark matter and dark energy.Or it is a mixture of these two dark components,i.e.,one can consider it an exotic unknown dark fluid.With this consideration,the variable generalized Chaplygin gas(VGCG)model is studied with not dividing the unknown fluid into dark matter and dark energy parts in this paper.By using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method,the VGCG model as the unification of dark sectors is constrained,and the constraint results on the VGCG model parameters are,n=0.00057+0.0001+0.0009-0.0006-0.0006,α=0.0015+0.0003+0.0017-0.0015-0.0015and B s=0.778+0.016+0.030-0.016-0.035,obtained by the cosmic microwave background data from the 7-year WMAP full data points,the baryon acoustic oscillation data from Sloan Digital Sky Survey(SDSS)and 2-degree Field Galaxy Redshift(2dFGRS)survey,and the Union2 type Ia supernova data with systematic errors.At last,according to the evolution of deceleration parameter it is shown that an expanded universe from deceleration to acceleration can be obtained in VGCG cosmology.展开更多
基金The National Science Foundation by Changjiang Scholarship of Ministry of Education of China(No.BCS-0527508)the Joint Research Fund for Overseas Natural Science of China(No.51250110075)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.SBK200910046)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.0901005C)
文摘In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackled by the NB component）, unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation （captured by the CAR process）, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic （AADT） per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.
基金Research Funds from North University of China(No.130087)
文摘The mean path length(MPL)of photons is a critical parameter to calculate tissue absorption coefficient as well as blood oxygenation using modified Beer-Lambert law,where in the differential path factor(DPF)is often assumed as constant over range of tissue absorption.By utilizing the Monte Carlo(MC)simulation of photon migrations in the leg,this study used four approaches to estimate MPL,and compared them with that determined by the MPL definition.The simulation results indicate that the DPF is remarkably affected by tissue absorption,at approximate 10% variation.A linear model is suggested to calculate MPL for measurements of tissue absorption as well as blood oxygenation using modified Beer-Lambert law.
基金supported by GACR 526/09/0549and partly by AV0Z60050516
文摘This study aimed to compare the distribution patterns and trends of plant parts used among different groups of medicinal plants, geographical regions,and between medicinal plants and all vascular plants.We used the published sources for elevation records of 2,331 medicinal plant species to interpolate presence between minimum and maximum elevations and estimated medicinal plant richness for each 100-m elevational band. Monte Carlo simulations were used to test whether differences in elevational distribution between different groups of medicinal plants were significant. Total number of medicinal plants as well as different groups showed unimodal relationship with elevation. The elevational distributions of medicinal plants significantly differ between regions and between medicinal plant groups.When comparing the richness of all medicinal plants to all vascular plants,Monte Carlo simulations indicated that the numbers of medicinal plants are higher than expected at low elevations.The highest richness of medicinal plants at low elevation could be possibly due to favorable environmental factors such as high temperature, rainfall,sunlight or due to higher density of human population and thus higher pressure on use of any plants in lower elevations.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50609005)Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2009451116)+1 种基金Postdoctoral Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (No. LBH-Z08255)Foundation of Heilongjiang Province Educational Committee (No. 11451022)
文摘A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hy-drologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which further leads to the uncertainty of forecast results of a hydrologic model. Working with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based Adaptive Metropolis method (AM-MCMC) was used to study parameter uncertainty of Nash model, while the probabilistic flood forecasting was made with the simu-lated samples of parameters of Nash model. The results of a case study shows that the AM-MCMC based on BFS proposed in this paper is suitable to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters of Nash model according to the known information of the parameters. The use of Nash model and AM-MCMC based on BFS was able to make the probabilistic flood forecast as well as to find the mean and variance of flood discharge, which may be useful to estimate the risk of flood control decision.
基金Project(93021714)supported by the Iran National Science Foundation。
文摘Efficient modelling approaches capable of predicting the behavior and effects of nanoparticles in cement-based materials are required for conducting relevant experiments.From the microstructural characterization of a cement-nanoparticle system,this paper investigates the potential of cell-based weighted random-walk method to establish statistically significant relationships between chemical bonding and diffusion processes of nanoparticles within cement matrix.LaSr_(0.5)C_(0.5)O_(3)(LSCO)nanoparticles were employed to develop a discrete event system that accounts for the behavior of individual cells where nanoparticles and cement components were expected to interact.The stochastic model is based on annihilation(loss)and creation(gain)of a bond in the cell.The model considers both chemical reactions and transport mechanism of nanoparticles from cementitious cells,along with cement hydration process.This approach may be useful for simulating nanoparticle transport in complex 2D cement-based materials systems.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.10674016,10875013the Specialized Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education under Grant No.20080027005
文摘We introduce the potential-decomposition strategy （PDS）, which can be used in Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. PDS can be designed to make particles move in a modified potential that favors diffusion in phase space, then, by rejecting some trial samples, the target distributions can be sampled in an unbiased manner. Furthermore, if the accepted trial samples are insumcient, they can be recycled as initial states to form more unbiased samples. This strategy can greatly improve efficiency when the original potential has multiple metastable states separated by large barriers. We apply PDS to the 2d Ising model and a double-well potential model with a large barrier, demonstrating in these two representative examples that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.
文摘Presented is a new testing system based on using the factor models and self-organizing feature maps as well as the method of filtering undesirable environment influence. Testing process is described by the factor model with simplex structure, which represents the influences of genetics and environmental factors on the observed parameters - the answers to the questions of the test subjects in one case and for the time, which is spent on responding to each test question to another. The Monte Carlo method is applied to get sufficient samples for training self-organizing feature maps, which are used to estimate model goodness-of-fit measures and, consequently, ability level. A prototype of the system is implemented using the Raven＇s Progressive Matrices （Advanced Progressive Matrices） - an intelligence test of abstract reasoning. Elimination of environment influence results is performed by comparing the observed and predicted answers to the test tasks using the Kalman filter, which is adapted to solve the problem. The testing procedure is optimized by reducing the number of tasks using the distribution of measures to belong to different ability levels after performing each test task provided the required level of conclusion reliability is obtained.
基金supported by the Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51321065)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.9121530151439005)
文摘Scheduling is a major concern in construction planning and management, and current construction simulation research typically targets the shortest total duration. However, uncertainties are inevitable in actual construction, which may lead to discrepancies between the actual and planned schedules and increase the risk of total duration delay. Therefore, developing a robust construction scheduling technique is of vital importance for mitigating disturbance and improving completion probability. In the present study, the authors propose a robustness analysis method that involves underground powerhouse construction simulation based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) method. Specifically, the MCMC method samples construction disturbances by considering the interrelationship between the states of parameters through a Markov state transition probability matrix, which is more robust and efficient than traditional sampling methods such as the Monte Carlo(MC) method. Additionally, a hierarchical simulation model coupling critical path method(CPM) and a cycle operation network(CYCLONE) is built, using which construction duration and robustness criteria can be calculated. Furthermore, a detailed measurement method is presented to quantize the robustness of underground powerhouse construction, and the setting model of the time buffer is proposed based on the MCMC method. The application of this methodology not only considers duration but also robustness, providing scientific guidance for engineering decision making. We analyzed a case study project to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed methodology.
文摘Studying different theoretical properties of epidemiological models has been widely addressed, while numerical studies and especially the calibration of models, which are often complicated and loaded with a high number of unknown parameters, against mea- sured data have received less attention. In this paper, we describe how a combination of simulated data and Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） methods can be used to study the identifiability of model parameters with different type of measurements. Three known models are used as case studies to illustrate the importance of parameter identi- fiability： a basic SIR model, an influenza model with vaccination and treatment and a HIV-Malaria co-infection model. The analysis reveals that calibration of complex models commonly studied in mathematical epidemiology, such as the HIV Malaria co-dynamics model, can be difficult or impossible, even if the system would be fully observed. The pre- sented approach provides a tool for design and optimization of real-life field campaigns of collecting data, as well as for model selection.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11147150,11205078,and 11275035)the Natural Science Foundation of Education Department of Liaoning Province(Grant No.L2011189)
文摘Current observations indicate that 95% of the energy density in the universe is the unknown dark component.The dark component is considered composed of two fluids:dark matter and dark energy.Or it is a mixture of these two dark components,i.e.,one can consider it an exotic unknown dark fluid.With this consideration,the variable generalized Chaplygin gas(VGCG)model is studied with not dividing the unknown fluid into dark matter and dark energy parts in this paper.By using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method,the VGCG model as the unification of dark sectors is constrained,and the constraint results on the VGCG model parameters are,n=0.00057+0.0001+0.0009-0.0006-0.0006,α=0.0015+0.0003+0.0017-0.0015-0.0015and B s=0.778+0.016+0.030-0.016-0.035,obtained by the cosmic microwave background data from the 7-year WMAP full data points,the baryon acoustic oscillation data from Sloan Digital Sky Survey(SDSS)and 2-degree Field Galaxy Redshift(2dFGRS)survey,and the Union2 type Ia supernova data with systematic errors.At last,according to the evolution of deceleration parameter it is shown that an expanded universe from deceleration to acceleration can be obtained in VGCG cosmology.
