Robust range-parameterized cubature Kalman filter for bearings-only tracking

In order to improve tracking accuracy when initial estimate is inaccurate or outliers exist,a bearings-only tracking approach called the robust range-parameterized cubature Kalman filter(RRPCKF)was proposed.Firstly,the robust extremal rule based on the pollution distribution was introduced to the cubature Kalman filter(CKF)framework.The improved Turkey weight function was subsequently constructed to identify the outliers whose weights were reduced by establishing equivalent innovation covariance matrix in the CKF.Furthermore,the improved range-parameterize(RP)strategy which divides the filter into some weighted robust CKFs each with a different initial estimate was utilized to solve the fuzzy initial estimation problem efficiently.Simulations show that the result of the RRPCKF is more accurate and more robust whether outliers exist or not,whereas that of the conventional algorithms becomes distorted seriously when outliers appear.

Robust SLAM using square-root cubature Kalman filter and Huber's GM-estimator

Mobile robot systems performing simultaneous localization and mapping(SLAM) are generally plagued by non-Gaussian noise.To improve both accuracy and robustness under non-Gaussian measurement noise,a robust SLAM algorithm is proposed.It is based on the square-root cubature Kalman filter equipped with a Huber' s generalized maximum likelihood estimator(GM-estimator).In particular,the square-root cubature rule is applied to propagate the robot state vector and covariance matrix in the time update,the measurement update and the new landmark initialization stages of the SLAM.Moreover,gain weight matrices with respect to the measurement residuals are calculated by utilizing Huber' s technique in the measurement update step.The measurement outliers are suppressed by lower Kalman gains as merging into the system.The proposed algorithm can achieve better performance under the condition of non-Gaussian measurement noise in comparison with benchmark algorithms.The simulation results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed SLAM algorithm.

财产损失分布建模与实证分析研究

The paper is going to introduce some methods about select distributional model、select an estimation technique、iterate to minimize objective function、record estimated parameters、select one or more models which had low value of the objective function and test of fit of selected model by empirical distribution function、mean of residual life function、minimum distance and minimum chi square.This should prove especially useful to those readers who want to set up a computer system to perform the model fitting operation.

财产险个体损失分布建模的系统分析

本文通过经验分布函数、剩余期望函数、最小距离估计和最小卡-方估计,结合实际案例和计算机技术系统,介绍财产损失模型趋势判断、估计技术选择、目标函数比较技术选择、参数估计和模型拟合检验的技术方法。这对于利用计算机技术解决财产损失模型拟合的保险企业和有关研究部门是非常有益的。

Comparison of Linearized Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter for Satellite Motion States Estimation

The performance of the conventional Kalman filter depends on process and measurement noise statistics given by the system model and measurements.The conventional Kalman filter is usually used for a linear system,but it should not be used for estimating the state of a nonlinear system such as a satellite motion because it is difficult to obtain the desired estimation results.The linearized Kalman filtering approach and the extended Kalman filtering approach have been proposed for a general nonlinear system.The equations of satellite motion are described.The satellite motion states are estimated,and the relevant estimation errors are calculated through the estimation algorithms of the both above mentioned approaches implemented in Matlab are estimated.The performances of the extended Kalman filter and the linearized Kalman filter are compared.The simulation results show that the extended Kalman filter is much better than the linearized Kalman filter at the aspect of estimation effect.

Nonlinear state estimation for fermentation process using cubature Kalman filter to incorporate delayed measurements

State estimation of biological process variables directly influences the performance of on-line monitoring and op- timal control for fermentation process. A novel nonlinear state estimation method for fermentation process is proposed using cubature Kalman filter （CKF） to incorporate delayed measurements. The square-root version of CI（F （SCKF） algorithm is given and the system with delayed measurements is described. On this basis, the sample-state augmentation method for the SCKF algorithm is provided and the implementation of the proposed algorithm is constructed. Then a nonlinear state space model for fermentation process is established and the SCKF algorithm incorporating delayed measurements based on fermentation process model is presented to implement the nonlinear state estimation. Finally, the proposed nonlinear state estimation methodology is applied to the state estimation for penicillin and industrial yeast fermentation processes. The simulation results show that the on-fine state estimation for fermentation process can be achieved by the proposed method with higher esti- mation accuracy and better stability.

A Homogeneous Linear Estimation Method for System Error in Data Assimilation

In this paper, a new bias estimation method is proposed and applied in a regional ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） based on the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） Model. The method is based on a homogeneous linear bias model, and the model bias is estimated using statistics at each assimilation cycle, which is different from the state augmentation methods proposed in pre- vious literatures. The new method provides a good estimation for the model bias of some specific variables, such as sea level pres- sure （SLP）. A series of numerical experiments with EnKF are performed to examine the new method under a severe weather condi- tion. Results show the positive effect of the method on the forecasting of circulation pattern and meso-scale systems, and the reduc- tion of analysis errors. The background error covarianee structures of surface variables and the effects of model system bias on EnKF are also studied under the error covariance structures and a new concept ＇correlation scale＇ is introduced. However, the new method needs further evaluation with more cases of assimilation.

Simulating Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm to Estimate Likelihood Function of ARMA（1, 1） Model

This paper present a simulation study of an evolutionary algorithms, Particle Swarm Optimization PSO algorithm to optimize likelihood function of ARMA（1, 1） model, where maximizing likelihood function is equivalent to maximizing its logarithm, so the objective function ＇obj.fun＇ is maximizing log-likelihood function. Monte Carlo method adapted for implementing and designing the experiments of this simulation. This study including a comparison among three versions of PSO algorithm “Constriction coefficient CCPSO, Inertia weight IWPSO, and Fully Informed FIPSO”, the experiments designed by setting different values of model parameters al, bs sample size n, moreover the parameters of PSO algorithms. MSE used as test statistic to measure the efficiency PSO to estimate model. The results show the ability of PSO to estimate ARMA＇ s parameters, and the minimum values of MSE getting for COPSO.

Composite quantile regression estimation for P-GARCH processes

We consider the periodic generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(P-GARCH) process and propose a robust estimator by composite quantile regression. We study some useful properties about the P-GARCH model. Under some mild conditions, we establish the asymptotic results of proposed estimator.The Monte Carlo simulation is presented to assess the performance of proposed estimator. Numerical study results show that our proposed estimation outperforms other existing methods for heavy tailed distributions.The proposed methodology is also illustrated by Va R on stock price data.

Simultaneous estimation of surface soil moisture and soil properties with a dual ensemble Kalman smoother

In this paper, a new state-parameter estimation approach is presented based on the dual ensemble Kalman smoother(DEn KS) and simple biosphere model(Si B2) to sequentially estimate both the soil properties and soil moisture profile by assimilating surface soil moisture observations. The Arou observation station, located in the upper reaches of the Heihe River in northwestern China, was selected to test the proposed method. Three numeric experiments were designed and performed to analyze the influence of uncertainties in model parameters, atmospheric forcing, and the model's physical mechanics on soil moisture estimates. Several assimilation schemes based on the ensemble Kalman filter(En KF), ensemble Kalman smoother(En KS), and dual En KF(DEn KF) were also compared in this study. The results demonstrate that soil moisture and soil properties can be simultaneously estimated by state-parameter estimation methods, which can provide more accurate estimation of soil moisture than traditional filter methods such as En KF and En KS. The estimation accuracy of the model parameters decreased with increasing error sources. DEn KS outperformed DEn KF in estimating soil moisture in most cases, especially where few observations were available. This study demonstrates that the DEn KS approach is a useful and practical way to improve soil moisture estimation.