臭氧(O3)与甲烷(CH4)均是大气中重要的微量气体,对全球气候变化有着重要的影响.为提高全球范围的臭氧、甲烷在气候模式中的预报效果,使用集合平方根滤波(En SRF)同化方法及地球系统模式(CESM)构建了CESM-En SRF卫星资料同化预报系统,并...臭氧(O3)与甲烷(CH4)均是大气中重要的微量气体,对全球气候变化有着重要的影响.为提高全球范围的臭氧、甲烷在气候模式中的预报效果,使用集合平方根滤波(En SRF)同化方法及地球系统模式(CESM)构建了CESM-En SRF卫星资料同化预报系统,并通过设计试验,将大气红外探测器(AIRS)的臭氧与甲烷观测资料同化到气候模式中,对模式的同化再预报效果进行系统的测试与评估.结果显示,臭氧、甲烷分析集合均值的偏差及均方根误差皆低于背景集合均值的偏差及均方根误差.臭氧、甲烷的同化再预报偏差及均方根误差较控制实验都得到改善,但对5 h Pa以上高度臭氧预报准确性的改进效果很小.随循环同化的进行,平流层臭氧与甲烷的平均同化改进率呈增加趋势,并逐渐趋于稳定;对流层平均同化改进率随时间变化不明显.试验表明,该系统可有效利用臭氧与甲烷的观测资料对模式场进行合理的改善,从而有效地提高臭氧、甲烷在气候模式中的再预报效果,但对于平流层顶-中间层高度(5 h Pa以上)臭氧预报准确度的提高,模式中臭氧光化学过程的准确模拟较同化观测资料具有更重要的作用.此外,循环同化对提高5~150 h Pa高度臭氧及1~200 h Pa高度甲烷在CESM模式中的预报效果最有效.展开更多
Spaceborne measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS/Aqua satellite provide a global view of methane (CH 4 ) distribution in the mid-upper troposphere (MUT-CH 4 ). The focus of this study is t...Spaceborne measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS/Aqua satellite provide a global view of methane (CH 4 ) distribution in the mid-upper troposphere (MUT-CH 4 ). The focus of this study is to analyze the spatiotemporal varia- tions in MUT-CH 4 over China from 2003 to 2008. Validation of AIRS CH 4 products versus Fourier transform infrared profiles demonstrates that its RMS error is mostly less than 1.5%. A typical atmospheric methane profile is found that shows how concentrations decrease as height increases because of surface emissions. We found that an important feature in the seasonal variation in CH 4 is the two peaks that exist in summer and winter in most parts of China, which is also observed in in-situ measurements at Mt. Waliguan, Qinghai Province, China (36.2879°N 100.8964°E, 3810 m). Also, in the summer, only one peak existed in western and southern China since there are no more significant anthropogenic sources in winter than at any other time of the year. Further analysis of the deseasonalized time-series of AIRS CH 4 in three fixed pressure layers of AIRS from 2003 to 2008 indicates that CH 4 in the Northern Hemisphere has increased abruptly since 2007, with no significant increase occurring before 2007. The increase in China is generally more significant than in other areas around the world, which again correlates with in-situ measurements at Mt. Waliguan.展开更多
文摘臭氧(O3)与甲烷(CH4)均是大气中重要的微量气体,对全球气候变化有着重要的影响.为提高全球范围的臭氧、甲烷在气候模式中的预报效果,使用集合平方根滤波(En SRF)同化方法及地球系统模式(CESM)构建了CESM-En SRF卫星资料同化预报系统,并通过设计试验,将大气红外探测器(AIRS)的臭氧与甲烷观测资料同化到气候模式中,对模式的同化再预报效果进行系统的测试与评估.结果显示,臭氧、甲烷分析集合均值的偏差及均方根误差皆低于背景集合均值的偏差及均方根误差.臭氧、甲烷的同化再预报偏差及均方根误差较控制实验都得到改善,但对5 h Pa以上高度臭氧预报准确性的改进效果很小.随循环同化的进行,平流层臭氧与甲烷的平均同化改进率呈增加趋势,并逐渐趋于稳定;对流层平均同化改进率随时间变化不明显.试验表明,该系统可有效利用臭氧与甲烷的观测资料对模式场进行合理的改善,从而有效地提高臭氧、甲烷在气候模式中的再预报效果,但对于平流层顶-中间层高度(5 h Pa以上)臭氧预报准确度的提高,模式中臭氧光化学过程的准确模拟较同化观测资料具有更重要的作用.此外,循环同化对提高5~150 h Pa高度臭氧及1~200 h Pa高度甲烷在CESM模式中的预报效果最有效.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905056)the Public Industry-specific Fund for Meteorology (GYHY201106045)the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC-KF-2008-11)
文摘Spaceborne measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS/Aqua satellite provide a global view of methane (CH 4 ) distribution in the mid-upper troposphere (MUT-CH 4 ). The focus of this study is to analyze the spatiotemporal varia- tions in MUT-CH 4 over China from 2003 to 2008. Validation of AIRS CH 4 products versus Fourier transform infrared profiles demonstrates that its RMS error is mostly less than 1.5%. A typical atmospheric methane profile is found that shows how concentrations decrease as height increases because of surface emissions. We found that an important feature in the seasonal variation in CH 4 is the two peaks that exist in summer and winter in most parts of China, which is also observed in in-situ measurements at Mt. Waliguan, Qinghai Province, China (36.2879°N 100.8964°E, 3810 m). Also, in the summer, only one peak existed in western and southern China since there are no more significant anthropogenic sources in winter than at any other time of the year. Further analysis of the deseasonalized time-series of AIRS CH 4 in three fixed pressure layers of AIRS from 2003 to 2008 indicates that CH 4 in the Northern Hemisphere has increased abruptly since 2007, with no significant increase occurring before 2007. The increase in China is generally more significant than in other areas around the world, which again correlates with in-situ measurements at Mt. Waliguan.
