2004年夏季经向型雨带及其与印度洋偶极模异常海温的关系

针对2004年夏季降水为南北向雨带分布的异常特点，利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料对可能造成2004年准经向降水分布的海温场、高度场及水汽输送特征进行了分析，并与夏季降水呈纬向分布的2003年进行了比对。分析结果表明，2004年夏季西太平洋副热带高压偏北、偏东，中国大陆中纬度地区东部为异常偏东水汽输送，西部为异常偏西的水汽输送，东、西风在110°E形成南北向交界，有利于形成南北经向型的水汽辐合和降水分布。而在2003年夏季，西太平洋副热带高压偏南、偏西，在长江以南形成稳定的带状副高，有利于雨带长时间稳定在副高北侧的淮河流域，同时中国大陆35°N以南地区为异常偏西水汽输送，以北地区为异常偏东的水汽输送，正、负异常纬向风形成东西向交界，有利于形成东西纬向型的水汽辐合和带状降水分布。对海温状况的分析发现，虽然2003年和2004年太平洋异常海温信号较弱，但印度洋和中国大陆近海海温却有明显的差异，2004年夏季西北太平洋异常海温北高南低，西印度洋海温异常偏冷，赤道热带印度洋海温呈东暖西冷的偶极模负相位特征。而在2003年淮河强降水发生同期，西北太平洋异常海温南高北低，西印度洋海温异常偏暖，赤道热带印度洋海温呈东冷西暖的偶极模正相位特征。因此，印度洋异常海温偶极模的不同相位可能是造成2003、2004年中国夏季降水不同雨带分布型的重要原因。利用中国160个代表站1950-1999的降水资料，进一步分析了印度洋偶极模不同相位异常海温对中国夏季降水的影响，结果发现，印度洋偶极模正相位有利于中国南方降水的西移和北方降水的东进，趋向于形成东西纬向型降水分布；而印度洋偶极模负相位有利于中国南方降水的东退和北方降水的西移，趋向于形成南北经向型降水分布。

南印度洋副热带偶极模在ENSO事件中的作用

南印度洋副热带偶极模(Subtropical Dipole Pattern,SDP)是印度洋存在的另一种很明显的偶极型海温差异现象,在年际和年代际尺度上均有十分明显的表现.而目前有关印度洋海气相互作用的研究主要集中在赤道印度洋地区,针对南印度洋地区的工作还比较少,特别是有关南印度洋海温与ENSO(EI Nino-Southern Oscillation)事件关系的研究.本文初步探讨了年际尺度上南印度洋副热带偶极型海温变化差异与ENSO事件的关系,发现SDP与ENSO事件有密切的联系,SDP事件就像连接正负ENSO位相转换的一个中间环节,SDP事件前后期ENSO的位相刚好完全相反.进一步,本文通过分析SDP事件前后期海温、高低层风、低层辐合辐散、高空云量和辐射等的变化特征研究了南印度洋偶极型海温异常在ENSO事件中的作用,结果表明:SDP在ENSO事件中的作用不仅涉及海气相互作用的正负反馈过程,还与热带和副热带大气环流之间的相互作用有关,特别是与东南印度洋海温变化所引起的异常纬向风由赤道印度洋向赤道太平洋传播的过程等有十分直接的关系;同时,SDP对ENSO事件的影响在很大程度上还依赖于大尺度平均气流随季节的变换.

印度洋海温的偶极振荡与夏季青藏高原水汽输送的关系

本文应用1961-2005年近45年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,在分析夏季青藏高原水汽输送通量特征的基础上,研究印度洋偶极指数与夏季高原水汽输送的关系,分析表明：夏季高原水汽的输入主要是受高原南边界水汽输送通量的影响,并且夏季高原区域净水汽与南边界水汽输送通量45年来的趋势变化很一致：都表现出先增加（1961-1980年）后减少（1981-2005年）的趋势变化。印度洋海温的前期变化（前年12月至当年5月）对夏季高原水汽的输送有明显的影响,特别是在1-3月。春季印度洋偶极指数通过对孟加拉湾地区向北的水汽输送通量的影响,进而影响夏季青藏高原水汽输送的异常。

The Role of Barrier Layer in Southeastern Arabian Sea During the Development of Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Using data from Argo and simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), the role of the barrier layer (BL) in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS: 60°E-75°E, 0°-10°N) is investigated during the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events from 1960 to 2008. It is found that warmer sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Indian Ocean appears in June in the SEAS. This warm SST accompanying anomalous southeastern wind persists for six months and a thicker BL and a corresponding thinner mixed layer in the SEAS contribute to the SST warming during the IOD formation period. The excessive precipitation during this period helps to form a thicker BL and a thinner mixed layer, resulting in a higher SST in the SEAS. Warm SST in the SEAS and cold SST to the southeast of the SEAS intensify the southeasterly anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, which transports more moisture to the SEAS, and then induces more precipitation there. The ocean-atmosphere interaction process among wind, precipitation, BL and SST is very important for the anomalous warming in the SEAS during the development of positive IOD events.

A Heat Budget Study on the Mechanism of SST Variations in the Indian Ocean Dipole Regions

By using a new heat budget equation that is closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) and a dataset from an ocean general circulation model (MOM2) with 10-a integration (1987-1996), the relative importance of various processes determining SST variations in two regions of the Indian Ocean is compared. These regions are defined by the Indian Ocean Dipole Index and will be referred to hereafter as the eastern (0°-10°S, 90°-110°E) and western regions (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E), respectively. It is shown that in each region there is a falling of SST in boreal summer and a rising in most months of other seasons, but the phases are quite different. In the eastern region, maximum cooling rate occurs in July,whereas in the western region it occurs in June with much larger magnitude. Maximum heating rate occurs in November in the eastern region, but in March in the western one. The western region exhibits another peak of increasing rate of SST in October, indicating a typical half-year period. Net surface heat flux and entrainment show roughly the same phases as the time-varying term, but the former has much larger contribution in most of a year, whereas the latter is important in the boreal summer. Horizontal advection, however, shows completely different seasonal variations as compared with any other terms in the heat budget equation. In the eastern region, it has a maximum in June/November and a minimum in March/September, manifesting a half-year period; in the western region, it reaches the maximum in August and the minimum in November. Further investigation of the horizontal advection indicates that the zonal advection has almost the opposite sign to the meridional advection. In the eastern region, the zonal advection is negative with a peak in August, whereas the meridional one is positive with two peaks in June and October. In the western region, the zonal advection is negative from March to November with two peaks in June and November, whereas the meridional one is positive with one peak in July.Different phases can be clearly seen between the two regions for each component of the horizontal advection. A detailed analysis of the data of 1994, a year identified when the Indian Ocean dipole event happened, indicates that the horizontal advection plays a dominant role in the remarkable cooling of the eastern region, in which zonal and meridional advections have the same sign of anomaly. However, in the western region in 1994 no any specialty was shown as compared with other years, for the SST anomaly is not positive in large part of this region. All these imply that the eastern and western regions may be related in a quite complex way and have many differences in dynamics. Further study is needed.

Variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool and its relation to the dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean

Based on the monthly average SST and 850 hPa monthly average wind data,the seasonal,interannual and long-term variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool(EIWP) and its relationship to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD),and its response to the wind over the Indian Ocean are analyzed in this study.The results show that the distribution range,boundary and area of the EIWP exhibited obviously seasonal and interannual variations associated with the ENSO cycles.Further analysis suggests that the EIWP had obvious long-term trend in its bound edge and area,which indicated the EIWP migrated westwards by about 14 longitudes for its west edge,southwards by about 5 latitudes for its south edge and increased by 3.52×106 km2 for its area,respectively,from 1950 to 2002.The correlation and composite analyses show that the anomalous westward and northward displacements of the EIWP caused by the easterly wind anomaly and the southerly wind anomaly over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean played an important and direct role in the formation of the IOD.

The Spatial Patterns of Initial Errors Related to the “Winter Predictability Barrier” of the Indian Ocean Dipole

In this study, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2pl （GFDL CM2pl） coupled model, the winter predictability barrier （WPB） is found to exist in the model not only in the growing phase but also the Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） decaying phase of positive events due to the effect of initial errors. In particular, the WPB is stronger in the growing phase than in the decaying phase. These results indicate that initial errors can cause the WPB. The domi- nant patterns of the initial errors that cause the occurrence of the WPB often present an eastern-western dipole both in the surface and subsurface temperature components. These initial errors tend to concentrate in a few areas, and these areas may represent the sensitive areas of the predictions of positive IOD events. By increasing observations over these areas and eliminating initial errors here, the WPB phenomenon may be largely weakened and the forecast skill greatly improved.

The Kelvin Wave Processes in the Equatorial Indian Ocean during the 2006-2008 IOD Events

The present study investigates the role of Kelvin wave propagations along the equatorial Indian Ocean during the 2006-2008 Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD).The 2006 IOD lasted for seven months,developing in May and reaching its peak in December,while the 2007 and 2008 IODs were short-lived events,beginning in early May and ending abruptly in September,with much weaker amplitudes.Associated with the above IODs,the impulses of the sea surface height(SSH) anomalies reflect the forcing from an intraseasonal time scale,which was important to the evolution of IODs in 2007 and 2008.At the thermocline depth,dominated by the propagation of Kelvin waves,the warming/cooling temperature signals could reach the surface at a particular time.When the force is strong and the local thermocline condition is favorable,the incoming Kelvin waves dramatically impact the sea surface temperature(SST) in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.In July 2007 and late July 2008,the downwelling Kelvin waves,triggered by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) in the eastern and central equatorial Indian Ocean,suppressed the thermocline in the Sumatra and the Java coast and terminated the IOD,which made those events short-lived and no longer persist into the boreal fall season as the canonical IOD does.

Variations of SST and Thermocline Depth in the Tropical Indian Ocean During Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Interannual variations in the surface and subsurface tropical Indian Ocean were studied using HadlSST and SODA datasets. Wind and heat flux datasets were used to discuss the mechanisms for these variations. Our results indicate that the surface and subsurface variations of the tropical Indian Ocean during Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） events are significantly different. A prominent characteristic of the eastern pole is the SSTA rebound after a cooling process, which does not take place at the subsurface layer. In the western pole, the surface anomalies last longer than the subsurface anomalies. The subsurface anomalies are strongly correlated with ENSO, while the relationship between the surface anomalies and ENSO is much weaker. And the subsurface anomalies of the two poles are negatively correlated while they are positively correlated at the surface layer. The wind and surface heat flux analysis suggests that the thermocline depth variations are mainly determined by wind stress fields, while the heat flux effect is important on SST.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF EFFECT OF SSTA OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN ON ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION IN THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDE

Numerical experiments on forcing dissipation and heating response of dipole (unipole) are carried out using global spectral models with quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations. For each experiment model integration is run for 90 days on the condition of three-wave quasi-resonance. The results are given as follows: Under the effects of dipole (unipole) forcing source and basic flow intensity, there exist strong interactions among the three planetary waves and quasi-biweekly and intraseasonal oscillation of the three planetary waves. In the meantime, the changes in the intensity of dipole or unipole forcing source and basic flow have different frequency modulation effects on LFO in the middle and higher latitudes. The results of the stream function field of three quasi-resonant waves evolving with time confirm that the low-frequency oscillation exists in extratropical latitude.

Research on the Interannual Variability of the Great Whirl and the Related Mechanisms

Based on AVISO （archiving, validation and interpretation of satellite data in oceanography） data from 1993 to 2010, QuikSCAT （Quick Scatterometer） data from 2000 to 2008, and Argo data from 2003 to 2008, the interannual variability of the Great Whirl （GW） and related mechanisms are studied. It shows that the origin and termination times of the GW, as well as its location and intensity, have significant interarmual variability. The GW appeared earliest （latest） in 2004 （2008） and vanished ear- liest （latest） in 2006 （2001）, with the shortest （longest） duration in 2008 （2001）. Its center was most southward （northward） in 2007 （1995）, while the minimum （maximum） amplitude and area occurred in 2003 and 2002 （1997 and 2007）, respectively. The GW was weaker and disappeared earlier with its location tending to be in the southwest in 2003, while in 2005 it was stronger, van- ished later and tended to be in northeast. The abnormal years were often not the same among different characters of the GW, and were not all coincident with ENSO （El Nifio-Southern Oscillation） or IOD （Indian Ocean Dipole） events, indicating the very com- plex nature of GW variations. Mechanism investigations shows that the interannual variability of intraseasonal wind stress curl in GW region results in that of the GW. The generation of the GW is coincident with the arrival of Rossby waves at the Somali coast in spring; the intensity of the GW is also influenced by Rossby waves. The termination of the GW corresponds well to the second one of the top two peaks in the baroclinic energy conversion rate in GW region, and the intensity and the position of the GW are also closely related to the top two baroclinic energy conversion rates.

Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming: A Multi-Member Study with CCSM4

Based on a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, the response of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to global warming is investigated with a six member ensemble of simulations for the period 1850-2100. The model can simulate the IOD features rea-listically, including the east-west dipole pattern and the phase locking in boreal autumn. The ensemble analysis suppresses internal variability and isolates the radiative forced response. In response to increasing greenhouse gases, a weakening of the Walker circula-tion leads to the easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the shoaling thermocline in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), and sea surface temperature and precipitation changes show an IOD-like pattern in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Al-though the thermocline feedback intensifies with shoaling, the interannual variability of the IOD mode surprisingly weakens under global warming. The zonal wind feedback of IOD is found to weaken as well, due to decreased precipitation in the EEIO. Therefore, the atmospheric feedback decreases much more than the oceanic feedback increases, causing the decreased IOD variance in this model.

Why does the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappear in some decades?

Lag correlations between sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTA） in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean （STIO） in fall and Nifio 3.4 SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific in the following fall are subjected to decadal variation, with positive correlations during some decades and negative correlations during others. Negative correlations are smaller and of shorter duration than positive correlations. Variations in lag correlations suggest that the use of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） as a predictor of the E1 Nifio- Southern Oscillation （ENSO） at a lead time of one year is not effective during some decades. In this study, lag correlations between IOD and ENSO anomalies were analyzed to investigate why the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappears during decades with negative correlations. Anomalies induced by the IOD in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations are still present, but at a greater depth than in decades with positive correlations, resulting in a lack of response to oceanic channel dynamics in the cold tongue SSTA. Lag correlations between oceanic anomalies in the west Pacific warm pool in fall and the equatorial Pacific cold tongue with a one-year time lag are significantly positive during decades with negative correlations. These results suggest that oceanic channel dynamics are overwhelmed by ocean- atmosphere coupling over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations. Therefore, the Indonesian throughflow is not effective as a link between IOD signals and the equatorial Pacific ENSO.

Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northern Indian Ocean Associated with ENSO and IOD

The Northern Indian Ocean （NIO） sea surface temperature （SST） warming, associated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillations （ENSO） and the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） mode, is investigated using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set （ICOADS） monthly data for the period 1979-2010. Statistical analy- ses are used to identify respective contribution from ENSO and IOD. The results indicate that the first NIO SST warming in September-November is associated with an IOD event, while the second NIO SST warming in spring-summer following the mature phase of ENSO is associated with an ENSO event. In the year that IOD co-occurred with ENSO, NIO SST warms twice, rising in the ENSO developing year and decay year. Both short- wave radiation and latent heat flux contribute to the NIO SST variation. The change in shortwave radiation is due to the change in cloudiness. A cloud-SST feedback plays an important role in NIO SST warming. The latent heat flux is related to the change in monsoonal wind. In the first NIO warming, the SST anomaly is mainly due to the change in the latent heat flux. In the second NIO warming, both factors are important.

EFFECTS OF ENSO ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IOD AND SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA

Based on the data of 1950 – 1999 monthly global SST from Hadley Center, NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and rainfall over 160 weather stations in China, investigation is conducted into the difference of summer rainfall in China (hereafter referred to as the "CS rainfall") between the years with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurring independently and those with IOD occurring along with ENSO so as to study the effects of El Ni?o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the relationship between IOD and the CS rainfall. It is shown that CS rainfall will be more than normal in South China (centered in Hunan province) in the years of positive IOD occurring independently; the CS rainfall will be less (more) than normal in North China (Southeast China) in the years of positive IOD occurring together with ENSO. The effect of ENSO is offsetting (enhancing) the relationship between IOD and summer rainfall in Southwest China, the region joining the Yangtze River basin with the Huaihe River basin (hereafter referred to as the "Yangtze-Huaihe basin") and North China (Southeast China). The circulation field is also examined for preliminary causes of such an influence.

LINKAGE BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND TWO TYPES OF El NI?O AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISMS

After compositing three representative ENSO indices,El Nio events have been divided into an eastern pattern(EP) and a central pattern(CP).By using EOF,correlation and composite analysis,the relationship and possible mechanisms between Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and two types of El Nio were investigated.IOD events,originating from Indo-Pacific scale air-sea interaction,are composed of two modes,which are associated with EP and CP El Ni o respectively.The IOD mode related to EP El Nio events(named as IOD1) is strongest at the depth of 50 to 150 m along the equatorial Indian Ocean.Besides,it shows a quasi-symmetric distribution,stronger in the south of the Equator.The IOD mode associated with CP El Nio(named as IOD2) has strongest signal in tropical southern Indian Ocean surface.In terms of mechanisms,before EP El Nio peaks,anomalous Walker circulation produces strong anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean,resulting in upwelling in the east,decreasing sea temperature there;a couple of anomalous anticyclones(stronger in the south) form off the Equator where warm water accumulates,and thus the IOD1 occurs.When CP El Nio develops,anomalous Walker circulation is weaker and shifts its center to the west,therefore anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean is less strong.Besides,the anticyclone south of Sumatra strengthens,and the southerlies east of it bring cold water from higher latitudes and northerlies west of it bring warm water from lower latitudes to the 15° to 25°S zone.Meanwhile,there exists strong divergence in the east and convergence in the west part of tropical southern Indian Ocean,making sea temperature fall and rise separately.Therefore,IOD2 lies farther south.

Southern high latitude climate anomalies associated with the Indian Ocean dipole mode

Using a 23-year database consisting of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, the authors studied southern high latitude climate anomalies associated with IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). Correlation analysis of the spatial variability regarding monthly sea level pressure, surface air tempera- ture, and sea surface temperature anomalies with IOD index suggests that IOD signal exists in southern high latitudes. The correlation fields exhibit a wavenumber-3 pattern around the circumpolar Southern Ocean. Lead-lag correlation analysis on the strongest correlation areas with IOD index shows that IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean responses to the southern high latitude climate almost instantaneously. It is proposed in the present paper that this connection is realized through atmospheric propagation rather than through oceanic one.

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN AUTUMN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE MODE AND THE STRENGTH OF SCS SUMMER MONSOON

Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature （SST） and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode （IODM） and the strength of South China Sea （SCS） Summer Monsoon are investigated through the EOF and smooth correlation methods. The results are as the following. （1） There are two dominant modes of autumn SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean. They are the uniformly signed basin-wide mode （USBM） and Indian Ocean dipole mode （IODM）, respectively. The SSTA associated with USBM are prevailing deeadal to interdecadal variability characterized by a unanimous pattern, while the IODM mainly represents interannual variability of SSTA. （2） When positive （negative） IODM exists over the tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding fall, the SCS summer monsoon will be weak （strong）. The negative correlation between the interannual variability of IODM and that of SCS summer monsoon is significant during the warm phase of long-term trend but insignificant during the cool phase. （3） When the SCS summer monsoon is strong （weak）, the IODM will be in its positive （negative） phase during the following fall season. The positive correlation between the interannual variability of SCS summer monsoon and that of IODM is significant during both the warm and cool phase of the long-term trend, but insignificant during the transition between the two phases.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE ON CLIMATIC VARIATIONS OVER EAST ASIAN MONSOON REGION DURING EQUATORIAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN SSTA

This paper investigates the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on climatic variations over East Asian monsoon region, based on CAS IAP AGCM-Ⅱduring Equatorial East Pacific Ocean SSTA or not. The results show that the southwest monsoon over East Asian will break out later than normal, the intensity of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS) is stronger than normal, and more rainfall on Chinese main land is simulated when only IOD forcing exists. With both IOD and Equatorial East Pacific Ocean SSTA forcing, the southwest monsoon will break out much later than normal, the intensity of the SCS summer monsoon also is weaker than normal, and less rainfall in North China is simulated. Therefore, Equatorial East Pacific Ocean SSTA and IOD have a synergic effect.

The Connection between the Sea Surface Height Anomaly Preceding the Indian Ocean Dipole and Summer Rainfall in China

The sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) signals leading the fall Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) are investigated. The results suggest that, prior to the IOD by one year, a positive SSHA emerges over the western-central tropical Pacific(WCTP), which peaks during winter(January-February-March, JFM), persists into late spring and early summer(April-May-June, AMJ), and becomes weakened later on. An SSHA index, referred as to SSHA_WCTP, is defined as the averaged SSHA over the WCTP during JFM. The index is not only significantly positively correlated with the following-fall(September-October-November, SON) IOD index, but also is higher than the autocorrelation of the IOD index crossing the two different seasons. The connection of SSHA_ WCTP with following-summer rainfall in China is then explored. The results suggest that higher(lower) SSHA_ WCTP corresponds to increased(reduced) rainfall over southern coastal China, along with suppressed(increased) rainfall over the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, North China, and the Xinjiang region of northwestern China. Mechanistically, following the preceding-winter higher(lower) SSHA_WCTP, the South Asia High and the Western Pacific Subtropical High are weakened(intensified), which results in the East Asian summer monsoon weakening(intensifying). Finally, the connection between SSHA_WCTP and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is analyzed. Despite a significant correlation, SSHA_WCTP is more closely connected with summer rainfall. This implies that the SSHA_WCTP index in the preceding winter is a more effective predictor of summer rainfall in comparison with ENSO.