基于“两客一危”数据的高速公路服务区路段车辆行驶模式研究

基于"两客一危"数据,以沈海高速公路厦门段为例,通过浮动车的GPS时空图发现高速公路服务区路段车辆行驶特征,同时选取车辆的平均速度、最低速度、速度方差等车辆运行特征指标进行层次聚类,得到服务区路段车辆的行驶模式.研究结果表明,高速公路服务区路段存在3种行驶模式,即进出服务区、正常行驶和交织减速,基本可以代表车辆在服务区路段的实际运行状态.

CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism contributes to colorectal cancer risk:A meta-analysis

AIM:To study the relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk by meta-analysis. METHODS:A meta-analysis was performed to investigate the relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk by reviewing the related studies until September 2010.Data were extracted and analyzed.Crude odds ratio(OR) with 95% confidence interval(CI) was used to assess the strength of relation between CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk. RESULTS:Thirteen published case-control studies including 5336 cases and 6226 controls were acquired. The pooled OR with 95%CI indicated that CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism was significantly related with colorectal cancer risk(Val/Val vs Ile/Ile:OR=1.47,95%CI:1.16-1.86,P=0.002;dominant model:OR= 1.33,95%CI:1.01-1.75,P=0.04;recessive model:OR=1.49,95%CI:1.18-1.88,P=0.0009) .Subgroup ethnicity analysis showed that CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism was also significantly related with colorectal cancer risk in Europeans(Ile/Val vs Ile/Ile:OR=1.22,95%CI:1.05-1.42,P=0.008;dominant model:OR= 1.24,95%CI:1.07-1.43,P=0.004) and Asians(Val/ Val vs Ile/Ile:OR=1.40,95%CI:1.07-1.82,P=0.01;recessive model:OR=1.46,95%CI:1.12-1.89,P= 0.005) . CONCLUSION:CYP1A1 Ile462Val may be an increased risk factor for colorectal cancer.

Multicausality in fatty liver disease:Is there a rationale to distinguish between alcoholic and non-alcoholic origin?

Apart from alcohol,there are other factors that may induce complications,which resemble alcohol-related liver disorders.In particular,obesity has been brought into focus as a risk factor for fatty liver disease.The term "non-alcoholic" fatty liver disease is commonly used to distinguish between obesity-related and alcohol-related hepatic steatosis.This review uses the epidemiological perspective to critically assess whether it is necessary and useful to differentiate between alcoholic and "nonalcoholic" fatty liver disease.The MEDLINE database was searched using the PubMed search engine,and a review of reference lists from original research and review articles was conducted.The concept to distinguish between alcoholic and "non-alcoholic" fatty liver disease is mainly based on specific pathomechanisms.This concept has,however,several limitations including the common overlap between alcohol misuse and obesityrelated metabolic disorders and the non-consideration of additional causal factors.Both entities share similar histopathological patterns.Studies demonstrating differences in clinical presentation and outcome are often biased by selection.Risk factor reduction is the main principle of prevention and treatment of both disease forms.In conclusion,alcoholic and "non-alcoholic" fatty liver diseases are one and the same disease caused by different risk factors.A shift from artificial categories to a more general approach to fatty liver disease as a multicausal disorder may optimize preventive strategies and help clinicians more effectively treat patients at the individual level.

Weekend and nighttime effect on the prognosis of peptic ulcer bleeding

AIM:To evaluate whether weekend or nighttime admission affects prognosis of peptic ulcer bleeding despite early endoscopy.METHODS:Retrospective data collection from four referral centers,all of which had a formal out-of-hours emergency endoscopy service,even at weekends.A total of 388 patients with bleeding peptic ulcers who were admitted via the emergency room between January 2007 and December 2009 were enrolled.Analyzed parameters included time from patients' arrival until endoscopy,mortality,rebleeding,need for surgery and length of hospital stay.RESULTS:The weekday and weekend admission groups comprised 326 and 62 patients,respectively.There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between the two groups,except for younger age in the weekend group.Most patients (97%) had undergone early endoscopy,which resulted in a low mortality rate regardless of point of presentation (1.8% overall vs 1.6% on the weekend).The only outcome that was worse in the weekend group was a higher rate of rebleeding (12% vs 21%,P = 0.030).However,multivariate analysis revealed nighttime admission and a high Rockall score (≥ 6) as significant independent risk factors for rebleeding,rather than weekend admission.CONCLUSION:Early endoscopy for peptic ulcer bleeding can prevent the weekend effect,and nighttime admission was identified as a novel risk factor for rebleeding,namely the nighttime effect.

Seismic Observations and Seismic Hazard Studies in the Philippines

It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system. The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transferred from one agency to another during this same period of time. At present, the mandate of conducting seismic observations in the Philippines rests with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). In 2000, through a grant aid from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Philippine seismic network was upgraded to a digital system. As a result, a new set of seismic monitoring equipments was installed in all of the 34 PHIVOLCS seismic stations all over the country. Digital waveforms are now available for high level seismic data processing, and data acquisition and processing are now automated. Included in the upgrade is the provision of strong motion accelerographs in all stations whose data can now be used for studying ground motion and intensity attenuation relations. The new setup is now producing high-resolution data that can now be used for conducting basic seismological researches. Earthquake locations have now improved allowing for the modeling and delineation of earthquake source regions necessary for earthquake hazard studies. Current seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involve the estimation of ground motion using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, seismic microzonation studies of key cities using microtremor observations, paleoseismology and active faults mapping, and identification of liquefaction-prone, landslide-prone and tsunami-affected areas. The earthquake database is now being reviewed and completed with the addition of historical events and from data from regional databases. While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional level, PHIVOLCS is now focusing on doing these seismic hazard studies on a microlevel. For Metro Manila, first generation hazard maps showing ground rupture, ground shaking and liquefaction hazards have recently been completed. Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are the next targets. The elements at risk such as population, lifelines, and vertical and horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners, civil defense officials, policy-makers and engineers. The maps can also now be used to describe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed. In addition, a rapid earthquake damage assessment system has been started which will attempt to produce immediate or rapid assessments including identification of elements at risk during times of strong earthquakes.

Landslide Hazard Mapping During a Large Scale Earthquake

This paper reports a method to make hazard maps of sediment disasters resulting from an earthquake and following heavy rainfall for the entire region of Gunma prefecture, Japan. Firstly, we identified the slopes in the study area, which are susceptible to large-scale landslides and land failures during an earthquake with a magnitude of seven on the Richter scale. To analyze the sheer volume of the data, we employed a statistical method to evaluate the susceptibility, mainly considering geomorphologic conditions. Secondly, we extracted mudflow and slope failure susceptible areas and potential flooding zones resulting from a damming at a river triggered by the earthquake and heavy rainfall, and we identified the settlements which would be isolated by the road disruption caused by the sediment disasters. As the result, 359 settlements were classified as potential isolation areas. Combining the above-mentioned susceptibility maps, we obtained two types of sediment disaster hazard maps of the study area, depicting the potential hazards which would occur during the earthquake and the disasters which would be caused by heavy rainfall following the quake, respectively. These hazard maps and the disaster information would be useful for the regional disaster prevention planning and countermeasures in the future.

Using Statistical Learning Algorithms in Regional Landslide Susceptibility Zonation with Limited Landslide Field Data

Regional Landslide Susceptibility Zonation(LSZ) is always challenged by the available amount of field data, especially in southwestern China where large mountainous areas and limited field information coincide. Statistical learning algorithms are believed to be superior to traditional statistical algorithms for their data adaptability. The aim of the paper is to evaluate how statistical learning algorithms perform on regional LSZ with limited field data. The focus is on three statistical learning algorithms, Logistic Regression(LR), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machine(SVM). Hanzhong city, a landslide prone area in southwestern China is taken as a study case. Nine environmental factors are selected as inputs. The accuracies of the resulting LSZ maps are evaluated through landslide density analysis(LDA), receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves and Kappa index statistics. The dependence of the algorithm on the size of field samples is examined by varying the sizes of the training set. The SVM has proven to be the most accurate and the most stable algorithm at small training set sizes and on all known landslide sizes. The accuracy of SVM shows a steadilyincreasing trend and reaches a high level at a small size of the training set, while accuracies of LR and ANN algorithms show distinct fluctuations. The geomorphological interpretations confirm the strength of SVM on all landslide sizes. Our results show that the strengths of SVM in generalization capability and model robustness make it an appropriate and efficient tool for regional LSZ with limited landslide field samples.

Application of Chebyshev theorem to data preparation in landslide susceptibility mapping studies:an example from Yenice(Karabük,Turkey)region

Landslide database construction is one of the most crucial stages of the landslide susceptibility mapping studies. Although there are many techniques for preparing landslide database in the literature, representative data selection from huge data sets is a challenging, and, to some extent, a subjective task. Thus, in order to produce reliable landslide susceptibility maps, data-driven, objective and representative database construction is a very important stage for these maps. This study mainly focuses on a landslide database construction task. In this study, it was aimed at building a representative landslide database extraction approach by using Chebyshev theorem to evaluate landslide susceptibility in a landslide prone area in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The study area was divided into two different parts such as training （Basin 1） and testing areas （Basin 2）. A total of nine parameters such as topographical elevation, slope, aspect, planar and profile curvatures, stream power index, distance to drainage, normalized difference vegetation index and topographical wetness index were used in the study. Next, frequency distributions of the considered parameters in both landslide and nonlandslide areas were extracted using different sampling strategies, and a total of nine different landslide databases were obtained. Of these, eight databases were gathered by the methodology proposed by this study based on different standard deviations and algebraic multiplication of raster parameter maps. To evaluate landslide susceptibility, Artificial Neural Network method was used in the study area considering the different landslide and nonlandslide data. Finally, to assess the performances of the so-produced landslide susceptibility maps based on nine data sets, Area Under Curve （AUC） approach was implemented both in Basin 1 and Basin 2. The best performances （the greatest AUC values） were gathered by the landslide susceptibility map produced by two standard deviation database extracted by the Chebyshev theorem, as 0.873 and 0.761, respectively. Results revealed that the methodology proposed by this study is a powerful and objective approach in landslide susceptibility mapping.

Risk Communication： Survey on Quality of Safety Data Sheets of Agricultural Substances

Manufacturers of chemicals are responsible for setting up a list of tools, including labels and safety data sheets, in order to provide adequate information about dangerous properties being labels and safety data sheets the main instruments for the immediate advice about dangerous substances and preparations for general public and workers. While correct labelling gives the possibility to general public to recognise the risks arising from handling and use of dangerous chemicals, safety data sheets are provided for professionals in order to allow safe handling and storage of dangerous chemicals in work places. Information contained in safety data sheets are also designed to suggest safety measures to be taken for the protection of workers as well as precaution measures and adequate actions to be taken in the case of accident. This project has critically revised the information contained in a list of safety data sheets of active ingredients provided for plant protection products, in order to assess the quality and the consistency of the data contained. Reported data have been then compared to published data. Considerable deficiencies/mistakes/inconsistencies have been found in the data reported along the safety data sheets of the examined substances, showing an urgent need of improving the enforcement related to a systematic recognition in this field as well as training of people involved in compilation of safety data sheets by producer side.

Analysis of Foreign Trade Among Slovakia and the Country V4 After the Changeover

The article presents the situation in foreign trade among Slovakia and the country V4 （Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovak Republic） after the changeover in 2009. At a time of economic crisis, Slovakia acceded to the adoption of a common currency--the euro. Prior to the adoption of the euro, apprehensions were raised due to currency decreased export from Slovakia to countries V4. In this article, author analyses the mutual foreign trade of Slovakia with countries of V4 for all commodities in standard international trade classification （SITC） codes. The analysis covers the time before the adoption of the euro from 2004 to 2008 and after the adoption of the euro in the years from 2009 to 2013. It compares the percentage change over the previous year, the balance of foreign trade, and foreign trade turnover. The same analysis is also done for the period prior to the adoption of the euro as a whole and after the adoption of the euro. In the calculations, data from UN Comtrade Database were used, which are indicated in USD. The results indicate that in the transition to the common currency, the euro did not mean for Slovakia worsening trade with V4 countries. Economies of these countries have long been linked and even the possibility of its own monetary policy does not endanger Slovakia＇s export to these countries.

Managing Social Performance A Case of Microfinance

Global financial crises might and should be recognized as a potential chance to introduce changes in managing our business, both in financial and other important private and/or public sectors. The prevailing opinion is that a lack of corporative social responsibility is one of the major reasons that lead to global crises occurrence. Nowadays, it is crucial to use the experiences of other industries and sectors which from their very beginning managed to balance finance and social goals at the same time. Microfinance sector is exactly one such sector. This paper is organized as follows： First, we give some overview of different approaches to measuring social performance of microfinance institutions. In this part of the paper we also accent the specifics of microfinance institutions-management within the context of double bottom line. In the second part we focus our analysis on practical implementation of ＂double bottom line management in Prizma MCO, one of the world pioneers in social performance management, by using their revolutionary poverty scorecard system. Then, we analyze how these social performance data are used in decision-making and how it affects overall performance of the organization. The paper is finished with some conclusions and lessons learned.

Analysis on Completeness of Small Earthquake Data in the Northeast Seismic Zone and Its Influence on Seismicity Parameters

Taking the northeast seismic zone as an example and based on the magnitude-frequency distribution principles of the G-R relationship and the study on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum magnitude of completeness M C in each time interval,this paper makes a statistical analysis on the seismicity parameters of the research area and explores the influence of the completeness of small earthquake data on the seismicity parameters and seismic hazard analysis.It shows that the completeness analysis of the regional small earthquakes data provides a possible means for obtaining more accurate seismicity parameters that can better represent the actual regional seismicity level for areas of low seismicity.The research methods of this article and its conclusion can be used as a reference for the completeness analysis of earthquake data and seismic activity research.

Efficient estimation for additive hazards regression with bivariate current status data

This paper discusses efficient estimation for the additive hazards regression model when only bivariate current status data are available. Current status data occur in many fields including demographical studies and tumorigenicity experiments （Keiding, 1991; Sun, 2006） and several approaches have been proposed for the additive hazards model with univariate current status data （Linet M., 1998; Martinussen and Scheike, 2002）. For bivariate data, in addition to facing the same problems as those with univariate data, one needs to deal with the association or correlation between two related failure time variables of interest. For this, we employ the copula model and an efficient estimation procedure is developed for inference. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the proposed estimates and suggest that the approach works well in practical situations. An illustrative example is provided.

Hierarchically penalized additive hazards model with diverging number of parameters

In many applications,covariates can be naturally grouped.For example,for gene expression data analysis,genes belonging to the same pathway might be viewed as a group.This paper studies variable selection problem for censored survival data in the additive hazards model when covariates are grouped.A hierarchical regularization method is proposed to simultaneously estimate parameters and select important variables at both the group level and the within-group level.For the situations in which the number of parameters tends to∞as the sample size increases,we establish an oracle property and asymptotic normality property of the proposed estimators.Numerical results indicate that the hierarchically penalized method performs better than some existing methods such as lasso,smoothly clipped absolute deviation(SCAD)and adaptive lasso.

An Extended Weibull Model with Variable Periodicity

A new distribution for the fluctuation of materials＇ lifetime cumulative hazard rate is firstly proposed. The new distribution is extended from the Weibull distribution by adding a sine function. After that, the properties of its hazard rate function, cumulative hazard rate function, probability density function and cumulative distribution function are studied. The analysis result shows this distribution can well model the lifetime with variable and periodic hazard rate. Finally, the new distribution is verified with two real data sets as examples to demonstrate its capability.