崩嘎沟泥石流发育特征简述及危险区预测评价

通过对崩嘎沟地形地貌、地层岩性、松散物源、降雨等条件的详细调查,揭示了崩嘎沟泥石流的主要发育特征,综合分析及危险度评价结果表明该沟为轻度易发低频泥石流冲沟。采用云南小江预测模型和"5·12"汶川地震后北川预测模型进行了危险区预测评价,并提出相应的处理措施。

地质灾害详细调查中危险区划分方法的应用——以广东省连州市为例

连州市位于南岭东西向构造带,区域构造错综复杂,属地质灾害易发区,区内地质灾害类型以滑坡、崩塌为主。区内形成地质灾害的地质环境条件是地形、地貌、地质构造、地层岩性及岩土体类型,而形成地质灾害外在的诱发因素则是强降雨和人类工程活动。根据区内地质灾害易发程度、地质灾害的稳定性、受威胁人员和财产的数量,采用地质灾害综合危险性指数法,将地质灾害危险区分为大、中、小三个等级,通过地质灾害危险区评价,将防控重点布置与灾害易发区和危险性大、中区域。

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake: Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxia Region as an Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of China and giving a statistical model of time interdependence, the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned. We have inferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur. There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with M\-S7.0～7.5 will occur in 10～100a.