Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Using Set Pair Analysis Models:Take Beichuan County as an Example

Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.

Debris flow hazard assessment by means of numerical simulations:implications for the Rotolon creek valley(Northern Italy)

On 4th November 2OLO, a debris flow detached from a large debris cover accumulated above the lowermost portion of the Rotolon landslide （Vicentine Pre-AIps, NE Italy） and channelized in the valley below within the Rotolon Creek riverbed. Such event evolved into a highly mobile and sudden debris flow, damaging some hydraulic works and putting at high risk four villages located along the creek banks. A monitoring campaign was carried out by means of a ground based radar interferometer （GB-InSAR） to evaluate any residual displacement risk in the affected area and in the undisturbed neighbouring materials. Moreover, starting from the current slope condition, a landslide runout numerical modelling was performed by means of DAN-3D code to assess the impacted areas, flow velocity, and deposit distribution of the simulated events. The rheological parameters necessary for an accurate modelling were obtained through the back analysis of the 2010 debris flow event. Back analysis was calibrated with all of the available terrain data coming from field surveys and ancillary documents, such as topographic, geomorphological and geological maps, with pre- and post-event LiDAR derived DTMs, and with orthophotos. Finally, to identify new possible future debris flow source areas as input data for the new modelling, all the obtained terrain data were reanalysed and integrated with the GB-InSAR displacement maps; consequently, new simulations were made to forecast future events. The results show that the integration of the selected modelling technique with ancillary data and radar displacement maps can be a very useful tool for managing problems related to debris flow events in the examined area.

Risk Assessment of Secondary Geological Disasters Induced by the Yushu Earthquake

The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.

Characteristics, causation, and rehabilitation of Zhouqu extraordinarily serious debris flows in 2010, China

In early morning of Aug 8th, 2010, the rain-triggered tremendous debris flows broke out simultaneously at the Sanyanyu ravine and Luojiayu ravine, which locate in the north part of Zhouqu County town. The debris flow is the most severe event of the same kind of disasters in the past sixty years in China, which caused great losses of people's lives and properties. Based on field investigation, remote sensing image interpretation and analysis of local climatological data, the local topographical conditions, active tectonic movement, massive debris source and torrential rains were the main formation causes which induced the catastrophic debris flows. Moreover, detailed geological surveys were carried out following the disaster, the other geological potential hazard sites were found out, and the geological and seismic hazard assessment has been put into practice. At last, scientific and appropriate countermeasures have been suggested to prevent and mitigate the extraordinarily serious debris flow.

福建省人民政府关于罗源县2003年度第六批次村镇建设土地征(拨)用的批复

罗源县人民政府:《罗源县人民政府关于罗源县2003年度第六批次村镇建设用地的请示》(罗政综[2003]266号)收悉。经研究,现批复如下:一、为实施罗源县土地利用总体规划,同意在国土资源部国土资函[1999]147号文确定的用于建设发展用地范围内拨用国有未利用土地66.5334公顷,作为罗源县2003年度第六批次村镇建设用地。供地审批必须符合国家供地、地价、用地定额等规定要求,位于地质灾害易发区的建设项目必须进行建设用地地质灾害危险性评估,涉及商业、旅游、娱乐和商品住宅等各类经营性用地必须以招标、拍卖或者挂牌方式出让国有土地使用权。

延安市人民政府关于印发《延安市2009年度地质灾害防治方案》的通知

延政发〔2009〕27号各县区人民政府,市政府各工作部门、各直属机构:《延安市2009年度地质灾害防治方案》已经市政府同意,现印发给你们,请认真贯彻执行。

Reservoir-landslide Hazard Assessment Based on GIS: A Case Study in Wanzhou Section of the Three Gorges Reservoir

Reservoir-landslide is mainly caused by changes in hydrodynamic conditions of slope interior at the time of water storage or discharge. The current study mainly focuses on the typical reservoirlandslide, but the sudden occurrence of some unknown landslides brought a lot of difficulties for hazards prevention. Therefore, we proposed a method to evaluate the regional scale reservoir-landslide hazard. We took Wanzhou section of Three Gorges Reservoir(China) as the study area and systemically and synthetically carried out the reservoir-landslide hazard evaluation under the condition of water level regulation. Firstly, we made reservoir-landslide susceptibility assessment by using the methods of spatial analysis and statistics based on geological and geomorphological materials and field survey data, and then, analyzed the regional-scale slope stability based on the infinite slope model used to analyze the bank slope stability change under the condition of water fluctuation, finally, developed a reservoir-landslide hazard evaluation model based on the results of susceptibility and stability. The hazard evaluation model was used to predict and evaluate the hazard change under the role of water level regulation. The results showed that the landslide hazard of the whole region decreased during water storage, landslide hazards increased during water discharge. The faster the regulation speed, the greater the slope hazard. The results can provide the basis for hazard management and regional land-use planning.

Evaluating the risk of coal bursts in underground coal mines

Coal bursts involve the sudden,violent ejection of coal or rock into the mine workings. They are almost always accompanied by a loud noise,like an explosion,and ground vibration. Bursts are a particular hazard for miners because they typically occur without warning. Despite decades of research,the sources and mechanics of these events are not well understood,and therefore they are difficult to predict and control. Experience has shown,however,that certain geologic and mining factors are associated with an increased likelihood of a coal burst. A coal burst risk assessment consists of evaluating the degree to which these risk factors are present,and then identifying appropriate control measures to mitigate the hazard. This paper summarizes the U.S. and international experience with coal bursts,and describes the known risk factors in detail. It includes a framework that can be used to guide the risk assessment process.

Statistical landslide susceptibility assessment in a dynamic environment:A case study for Lanzhou City,Gansu Province,NW China

This study presents a statistical landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA) in a dynamic environment. The study area is located in the eastern part of Lanzhou, NW China. The Lanzhou area has exhibited rapid urbanization rates over the past decade associated with greening, continuous land use change, and geomorphic reshaping activities. To consider the dynamics of the environment in the LSA, multitemporal data for landslide inventories and the corresponding causal factors were collected. The weights of evidence(Wof E) method was used to perform the LSA. Three time stamps, i.e., 2000, 2012, and 2016, were selected to assess the state of landslide susceptibility over time. The results show a clear evolution of the landslide susceptibility patterns that was mainly governed by anthropogenic activities directed toward generating safer building grounds for civil infrastructure. The low and very low susceptibility areas increased by approximately 10% between 2000 and 2016. At the same time, areas of medium, high and very high susceptibility zones decreased proportionally. Based on the results, an approach to design the statistical LSA under dynamic conditions is proposed, the issues and limitations of this approach are also discussed. The study shows that under dynamic conditions, the requirements for data quantity and quality increase significantly. A dynamic environment requires greater effort to estimate the causal relations between the landslides and controlling factors as well as for model validation.

Rockburst hazard assessment based on electromagnetic emission in Xingfu Mine

In order to research the danger caused by the rockburst, the electromagnetic emission （EME） in the coal rock was monitored and analyzed. The higher the stress in the coal is, the stronger the deformation and the failure are, and also the signal of the EME will be. The EME is increased by a relatively large margin before the slight shock and rockburst break out at spot. Therefore, some methods to monitor and forecast the danger of rockburst were proposed, including the critical point and devia- tion values, which was by non-contract method. In the end, the observation of EME in Xingfu was used to analyze and forecast the danger level by the rockburst. Then, the measures were proposed to prevent and cure the rockburst.

Seismic design and analysis of nuclear power plant structures

The seismic design and analysis of nuclear power plant (NPP) begin with the seismic hazard assessment and design ground motion development for the site. The following steps are needed for the seismic hazard assessment and design ground motion development:a. the development of regional seismo-tectonic model with seismic source areas within 500 km radius centered to the site;b. the development of strong motion prediction equations; c. logic three development for taking into account uncertainties and seismic hazard quantification;d. the development of uniform hazard response spectra for ground motion at the site;e. simulation of acceleration time histories compatible with uniform hazard response spectra. The following phase two in seismic design of NPP structures is the analysis of structural response for the design ground motion. This second phase of the process consists of the following steps:a. development of structural models of the plant buildings;b. development of the soil model underneath the plant buildings for soilstructure interaction response analysis;c. determination of instructure response spectra for the plant buildings for the equipment response analysis. In the third phase of the seismic design and analysis the equipment is analyzed on the basis of in-structure response spectra. For this purpose the structural models of the mechanical components and piping in the plant are set up. In large 3D-structural models used today the heaviest equipment of the primary coolant circuit is included in the structural model of the reactor building. In the fourth phase the electrical equipment and automation and control equipment are seismically qualified with the aid of the in-structure spectra developed in the phase two using large three-axial shaking tables. For this purpose the smoothed envelope spectra for calculated in-structure spectra are constructed and acceleration time is fitted to these smoothed envelope spectra.

A Review on Researches of Active Tectonics—History,Progress and Suggestions

This paper reviews the history and progress of research on active tectonics in China and overseas.By giving a brief introduction on the history of active tectonic research in China and other countries,the paper sums up the process and development of quantitative investigation of active tectonics since the 1980s.The focus is on the main efforts and progress made in China on certain aspects of research,such as basic surveys and applied investigation of active tectonics,the study of theories related to regional active tectonics and their kinematics and geodynamics,surveys on coupling relations between deep and shallow structures,active fault surveys and prospecting and seismic hazard assessment in urban areas,as well as the efforts made using Quaternary geochronology.Furthermore,the paper looks back on Chinese quantitative investigation of active tectonics in China and sums up cognitions derived from studies on the determination of several basic and measurable parameters of active tectonics.These parameters include the length of fault and fault segmentation,coseismic slip and cumulative slip,fault slip rate,the sequence of paleoearthquake events and the time elapsed since the most recent event.At the same time,efforts and progress made in China on assessing the long-term seismic potential for active faults and evaluating the risk from potential active fault movement have been reviewed by summarizing research on developing theories,models,methods and the application of time-dependent seismic potential to probabilistic assessment,magnitude estimation for potential earthquakes on active faults,and the forecast of potential risk caused by active fault movement.Finally,in consideration of the realities and problems in the research of active tectonics in China,the authors put forward several suggestions for issues worthy of more attention for further investigation in the future.

Background Seismicity and Its Application to Seismic Hazard Assessment in the North China Region

The historical earthquake activity is intense in the North China region. However, no middle-sized earthquakes have occurred in the last decades in the region since the Ms6.2 earthquake in the Zhangbei region in 1998. The quiescence of moderate and strong earthquakes is quite prominent in North China. In this paper, we use small earthquake records in 1970 ~ 2009 to study background seismic activity in the North China region. The spatial distributions of seismic parameters are presented, including b-value, the maximum magnitude and annual occurrence probability of earthquakes of M/〉6. 0. Our results show regions with low b-value that include the Yuncheng region in the Shanxi rift, the Suqian region located in the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone and the Shijiazhuang region in the Taihangshan block. Our analysis on the synthetic spatial pattern of seismicity indicate that seismicity in the North China region is mainly affected by the regional dynamic factors of deep structures.

Geotechnical risk management to prevent coal outburst in room-and-pillar mining

A coal outburst is a severe safety hazard in room-and-pillar mining under deep cover. It is more likely to occur during pillar retreating. Multi-seam mining dramatically increases the risk of coal outburst within the influence zones created by remnant pillars and gob-solid boundaries. Though coal outburst is generally associated with heavy loading of coal pillars,its occurrence is difficult to predict. Risk management provides a proactive tool to minimize coal outburst in room-and-pillar mining under deep cover. Risk assessment is the first step in identifying and quantifying outburst risk factors. The primary risk factors for coal outburst are overburden depth,roof and floor strength,geological anomalies,mining type,multi-seam mining,and panel width. A risk assessment chart can be used to proactively screen out mining sections with high risk of coal outburst for further analysis. Gob-solid boundaries and remnant pillars are critical factors in evaluation of the coal outburst risk of multi-seam mining. Risk identification,risk assessment,geologic influence mapping,geotechnical evaluation,risk analysis,risk mitigation,and monitoring are essential elements of coal outburst risk management process. Training is an integral part of risk management for risk identification and communication between all the stakeholders including management,technical and safety personnel,and miners.

Intensity measures for seismic liquefaction hazard evaluation of sloping site

This work investigates the correlation between a large number of widely used ground motion intensity measures(IMs) and the corresponding liquefaction potential of a soil deposit during earthquake loading. In order to accomplish this purpose the seismic responses of 32 sloping liquefiable site models consisting of layered cohesionless soil were subjected to 139 earthquake ground motions. Two sets of ground motions, consisting of 80 ordinary records and 59 pulse-like near-fault records are used in the dynamic analyses. The liquefaction potential of the site is expressed in terms of the the mean pore pressure ratio, the maximum ground settlement, the maximum ground horizontal displacement and the maximum ground horizontal acceleration. For each individual accelerogram, the values of the aforementioned liquefaction potential measures are determined. Then, the correlation between the liquefaction potential measures and the IMs is evaluated. The results reveal that the velocity spectrum intensity(VSI) shows the strongest correlation with the liquefaction potential of sloping site. VSI is also proven to be a sufficient intensity measure with respect to earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance, and has a good predictability, thus making it a prime candidate for the seismic liquefaction hazard evaluation.

Analysis of generation factors for tectonic deformation in the Xigeda formation in southwestern China

The Xigeda formation is a set of interbreds comprised of halfconsolidated silt,fine sand and clay with clear lamination and total thickness of 300 m.It is dated to be the early Pleistocene and widespread distributed on the Quaternary planes of denudation and leveling.This formation has particular tectonic deformation as expressed by deformed belts confined to certain locations,which extend linearly over long distances.It also manifests itself as graben and horst sequences where fault planes are very straight.Various deformation styles,such as horizontal,vertical and oblique dislocations,normal,reverse and thrust faulting resulted in tilts of small blocks in different directions.The clay beds are intruded by underlying sand layers.Parallel ridges and depressions characterize the landscape.These phenomena of deformation are probably the result of intensive vibration of soil bodies during major earthquakes which caused instantaneous shear,compression and extension.The analysis of generation factors for such tectonic deformation provides a new approach for determination of areas with seismic risks,assessment of earthquake intensity and research of earthquake mechanisms.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for Japan after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Mega-Thrust Earthquake （Mw9.0）

The Tohoku-Oki earthquake （Mw 9.0） of March 11,2011, was the largest event in the history of Japan. This magnitude 9.0 mega-thrust earthquake initiated approximately 100 km off-shore of Miyagi prefecture and the rupture extended 400-500 km along the Pacific plate. Due to the strong ground motions and tsunami associated by this event, approximately twenty thousand people were killed or missing and more than 220 thousands houses and buildings were totally or partially destroyed. This mega-thrust earthquake was not considered in the national seismic hazard maps for Japan that was published by the HERP （headquarters for earthquake research promotion） of Japan. By comparing the results of the seismic hazard assessment and observed strong ground motions, we understand that the results of assessment were underestimated in Fukushima prefecture and northern part of Ibaraki prefecture. Its cause primarily lies in that it failed to evaluate the Mw 9.0 mega-thrust earthquake in the long-term evaluation for seismic activities. On the other hand, another cause is that we could not make the functional framework which is prepared for treatment of uncertainty for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment work fully. Based on the lessons learned from this earthquake disaster and the experience that we have engaged in the seismic hazard mapping project of Japan, we consider problems and issues to be resolved for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and make new proposals to improve probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Japan.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the Alboran Sea for the Western Coast of Algeria

In October 1790, a destructive earthquake occurred near Oran city in the western part of Algeria （MSK, Medvdev-Sponheuer-Kamik macroseismic intensity： X）. It generated a tsunami that inundated the Spanish and North Africa coasts. The regional tectonic includes NW-SE compressional stress in Algeria and NE-SW strike-slip structures in the Alboran basin. In this work, we identified tsunami sources for the Alboran from numerical modeling. The sea bottom displacement is calculated from the Okada equations. The tsunami＇s propagation is simulated with the SWAN code. The identified tsunami source for the 1790 event is a 7.5 magnitude earthquake at the entrance of the Oran harbor, with a pure reverse faulting, probably associated with the Murdjajo fold The tsunami wave height profile that is obtained for the city of Oran showed an initial withdrawal of the sea that was followed by tsunami waves reaching 2 meters in height. The results obtained in Spain agree with the observations reported in the literature. Finally, the simulations led to a better understanding of the interdisciplinary approach to be considered as for tsunami sources in the Alboran. Sedimentary mass-movements should be now included as an additional component in the tsunami hazard assessment for the West Mediterranean. The contribution of sedimentary disturbance due to the series of canyons offshore the western margin could induce water waves higher than 2 meters in Western Algeria.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Bridgetown-Barbados, Employing Subduction Interface Characteristic Earthquakes

A new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Bridgetown, Barbados, West Indies. Hazard computations have been performed using the standard Cornell-McGuire approach based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic sources and expected maximum magnitudes, the authors take into consideration the possibility of large subduction interface earthquakes of magnitude 8.0-9.0 beneath the Barbados accretionary prism via application of a characteristic model and slip rates. The analysis has been conducted using a standard logic-tree approach. Uniform hazard spectra have been calculated for the 5% of critical damping and the horizontal component of ground motion for rock site conditions setting 5 return periods （95, 475, 975, 2,475 and 4,975 years） and spectral accelerations for 34 structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s. The disaggregation results suggest that the magnitude-distance pair that dominates the hazard yields M 7.4 and 8.6 and a distance of 42.5 km in the Interface Subduction Zone beneath Barbados for the 475 and 975 years RP （return period）, respectively. An event with an M 8.0 at a distance of 107.5 km in the Intraplate Subduction Zone is the second scenario that dominates the hazard for both 475 and 975 years RP.