西南地区夏季旱涝与厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)的关系分析

利用中国西南地区多个站点1951--2008年夏季逐月降水资料，1951--2008年的厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）指数（Nin03．4），对西南地区夏季旱涝与厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）的相关联系进行了分析，得出以下结论：前期厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）指数与中国西南地区的夏季降水存在一定的相关关系，如云南的中部，西部和南部，广西的西北部和贵州中部，东南部呈弱的负相关，除这几个地区都是呈现正相关。整个西南地区的相关系数，南部呈负正负，北部呈正的强弱强分布。合成分析表明：厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜事件发生后的夏季，西南地区降水距平基本呈现相反的分布特征。厄尔尼诺事件发生后，西南地区夏季降水较多，易造成涝灾；拉尼娜事件后，西南地区夏季降水较少，易造成旱灾。

Asymmetric Response of the South China Sea SST to El Nio and La Nia

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature （SST） in the South China Sea （SCS） is investigated according to its relationship with E1 Nifio/La Nifia （EN/LN） using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SST bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first SST warming/cooling peaks in December（0）-February（1） （DJF（1）） and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS SST anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN SST warm- ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August（1） （JJA（1）） and persists up to September-October（l）, with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN SST cooling peaks in May（l）, it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with SST and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA（1）.

Research on the Relationship of ENSO and the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in China

Based on a daily precipitation observation dataset of 743 stations in China from 1951 2004, the F distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of daily precipitation and to define extreme precipitation events. Based on this, the relationship of ENSO and the frequency of extreme precipitation events is studied. Results reveal that ENSO events have impact on extreme precipitation events, with different magnitudes at different regions and seasons. In general, during winter and spring, extreme precipitation events occur more often during E1 Nino events than during La Nina events. While during summer and autumn, the opposite is found. The relationship of a two season-lag ENSO and extreme precipitation frequency shows different pattern. Extreme precipitation events occur more often in several regions if an ENSO warm phase happened in the central-eastern tropical Pacific two seasons before. No similar impacts of El Nino and La Nina on the frequency of extreme precipitation events are found.

Asymmetric relationships between El Nino/La Nina and floods/droughts in the following summer over Chongqing,China

This study presents a detailed analysis of the asymmetric relationships between the warm/cold phase of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation and the typical flood/drought years in summer over Chongqing.Furthermore,its underpinning mechanisms are also explored.The results show that:(1)El Ni?o and La Ni?a have an asymmetric influence on summer precipitation in the following year over Chongqing.Generally,the composite atmospheric circulation anomalies for El Ni?o years are consistent with the composite results for typical flood years in summer over Chongqing,which indicates a tight link between typical flood years in summer over Chongqing and El Ni?o events.However,the relationship between typical drought years in summer over Chongqing and La Ni?a events is not significant.(2)From winter to the following summer,the extent of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific associated with typical flood years in summer over Chongqing shrinks,whereas in the tropical Indian Ocean,the extent slightly expands.This trend indicates that the impact of El Ni?o on typical flood years in summer over Chongqing is maintained through the‘relay effect’of SSTs in the tropical Indian Ocean,which is the result of a lagged response of positive SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean to El Ni?o events in winter.

Statistical Characteristics of ENSO Events in CMIP5 Models

By applying the historical-run outputs from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models and the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V3 b dataset(ERSST), the characteristics of different types of ENSO in the selected CMIP5 models, including cold-season-matured Eastern Pacific(C-EP) ENSO, warmseason-matured EP(W-EP) ENSO, cold-season-matured Central Pacific(C-CP) ENSO, and warm-season-matured CP(W-CP) ENSO, were examined in comparison with those in the ERSST dataset. The results showed that, in general, consistent with observations, EP ENSO events in most of the model runs were relatively much stronger than CP ENSO events, and cold-season-matured ENSO events were relatively much more frequent than warm-season-matured ENSO events for both EP and CP ENSO events. The composite amplitudes of ENSO events in most of the models were generally weaker than in observations, particularly for EP El Ni?o and CP La Ni?a. Moreover, most of the models successfully reproduced the amplitude asymmetries between El Ni?o and La Ni?a for cold-season-matured EP and CP ENSO events, exhibiting an average stronger/weaker EP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime and a weaker/stronger CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a regime. Most of the models, however, failed to reproduce the observed regimes of stronger/weaker W-EP El Ni?o/ La Ni?a and weaker/stronger W-CP El Ni?o/La Ni?a.

The“Spring Predictability Barrier” Phenomenon of ENSO Predictions Generated with the FGOALS-g Model

Using the sea surface temperature （SST） predicted for the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil （FGOALS-g）, an analysis of the prediction errors was performed for the seasonally dependent predictability of SST anomalies both for neutral years and for the growth/decay phase of El Nino/La Nina events. The study results indicated that for the SST predictions relating to the growth phase and the decay phase of El Nino events, the prediction errors have a seasonally dependent evolution. The largest increase in errors occurred in the spring season, which indicates that a prominent spring predictability barrier （SPB） occurs during an El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） warming episode. Furthermore, the SPB associated with the growth-phase prediction is more prominent than that associated with the decay-phase prediction. However, for the neutral years and for the growth and decay phases of La Nifia events, the SPB phenomenon was less prominent. These results indicate that the SPB phenomenon depends extensively on the ENSO events themselves. In particular, the SPB depends on the phases of the ENSO events. These results may provide useful knowledge for improving ENSO forecasting.

DIAGNOSTIC PREDICTIONS OF SST IN THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BASED ON FUZZY INFERRING AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION

Methods and approaches are discussed that identify and filter off affecting factors (noise) above primary signals,based on the Adaptive-Nework-Based Fuzzy Inference System. Influences of the zonal winds in equatorial eastern and middle/western Pacific on the SSTA in the equatorial region and their contribution to the latter are diagnosed and verified with observations of a number of significant El Nio and La Nia episodes. New viewpoints are propsed. The methods of wavelet decomposition and reconstruction are used to build a predictive model based on independent domains of frequency,which shows some advantages in composite prediction and prediction validity.The methods presented above are of non-linearity, error-allowing and auto-adaptive/learning, in addition to rapid and easy access,illustrative and quantitative presentation,and analyzed results that agree generally with facts. They are useful in diagnosing and predicting the El Nio and La Nia problems that are just roughly described in dynamics.

Phytoplankton and chlorophyll a relationships with ENSO in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

The historical data of phytoplankton and chlorophyll a(Chl a)(1990–2002)obtained during the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition(CHINARE)in the Prydz Bay have been integrated.The results showed that the temperature,salinity,nutrients,and oxygen of seawater changed when El Nino/La Nina occurred.The variation of biological communities reflected the response of ecosystem to environmental changes.During El Ni?o period,Chl a concentration and phytoplankton community structure changed significantly,and the relative proportion of diatoms increased while dinoflagellates decreased.During La Ni?a period,the proportion of diatoms decreased,but the golden-brown algae and blue-green algae increased significantly.The variation of phytoplankton population directly affected the biodiversity of the bay,which were also quite sensitive to the marine environment changes.Meanwhile,the satellite remote sensing data of 2002–2011(December–March)have been used to study the temporal connection change of Chl a and phytoplankton in the Prydz Bay.We found that there were significant differences in the monthly variation characteristics of satellite remote sensing Chl a and sea surface temperature(SST),which had some links with sea ice melting and El Ni?o/La Ni?a events.We found that the start time of bloom advanced,lagged or synchronized with the changes of the SST,and we also found the occurrence time of phytoplankton bloom corresponded with the sea ice melting inner bay.To some extent,this study will help us understand the relationships between ENSO events and the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Ocean.