The reliability expression of dynamic driving behavior is derived from the driving shaping behavioural model; and then, in accordance with the combination of computer simulation and mathematical expression of driving ...The reliability expression of dynamic driving behavior is derived from the driving shaping behavioural model; and then, in accordance with the combination of computer simulation and mathematical expression of driving reliability, an approach for assessing the effect of driving erroneous actions on the dynamic performance of the driver vehicle system is presented. The analysis of driving erroneous actions in the driver vehicle system has been performed to show that the reliability during perception with variety widely could result in the incidents and/or accidents in traffic system.展开更多
In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,ha...In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,has poor diagnostic resolution.In this paper,a new method that combines SDG with qualitative trend analysis(QTA) is presented to improve the resolution.In the method,a bidirectional inference algorithm based on assumption and verification is used to find all the possible fault causes and their corresponding consistent paths in the SDG model.Then an improved QTA algorithm is used to extract and analyze the trends of nodes on the consis-tent paths found in the previous step.New consistency rules based on qualitative trends are used to find the real causes from the candidate causes.The resolution can be improved.This method combines the completeness feature of SDG with the good diagnostic resolution feature of QTA.The implementation of SDG-QTA based fault diagno-sis is done using the integrated SDG modeling,inference and post-processing software platform.Its application is illustrated on an atmospheric distillation tower unit of a simulation platform.The result shows its good applicability and efficiency.展开更多
The possibility and causes of flight accidents by operational error/deviation in takeoff are analyzed in this paper. The following three stages are each described individually: before liftoff, near liftoff and initial...The possibility and causes of flight accidents by operational error/deviation in takeoff are analyzed in this paper. The following three stages are each described individually: before liftoff, near liftoff and initial climb. Relations of accident/incident causal factors by operational error with intrinsical flight mechanics are discussed.展开更多
To control complex system's safety effectively,safety control program was supported based on the principles of behavioral science that shapes organizational be- havior,and organizational behavior produced individu...To control complex system's safety effectively,safety control program was supported based on the principles of behavioral science that shapes organizational be- havior,and organizational behavior produced individual behavior.The program can be structured into a model that consists of three modules including individual behavior rectifi- cation,organization behavior diagnosis and model of safety culture.The research result not only reveals the deep cause of complex system accidents but also provides structural descriptions with the accidents cause.展开更多
This paper investigates the traffic accidents' trends and causes in Dubai. For this purpose, the traffic accident statistics for years 2003 to 2012 are used to examine the trends of different types of accidents and t...This paper investigates the traffic accidents' trends and causes in Dubai. For this purpose, the traffic accident statistics for years 2003 to 2012 are used to examine the trends of different types of accidents and the causes of these accidents. Also, the paper determines the most common types of accidents over the study period and identifies some of the causes for these accidents. Furthermore, the paper shows the impact of the new traffic law amendments, which were issued in 2008, on the accident rates and trends. The results showed that the implementation of the traffic law amendments did not have major impact in year 2008. However, there was a significant effect of these amendments in the following years. Also, lack of awareness of traffic laws and regulations in Dubai has been proven to be one of the major causes of accidents. Finally, the paper provides some recommendations to reduce the traffic accident rates, in order to achieve the Dubai Police Department 2020 strategic goal to have zero fatalities.展开更多
Statistics and analysis was made in causes, places and proportions about all kinds of disasters and accidents in coal mines of China in resent 50 years. The analysis indicates the emphasis reason that result in the ac...Statistics and analysis was made in causes, places and proportions about all kinds of disasters and accidents in coal mines of China in resent 50 years. The analysis indicates the emphasis reason that result in the accidents in coal mines are artificial cause explosion of mash gas and coal dust, water flood, fire hazard. The accidents mostly happened on stope which is more often than other places, following by the driving work face. This not only supplies the managers with basic reference about safe administration, but also suggests the countermeasures in reducing accidents: improve the disposition of person, perfect all kinds of rules and regulations, severely investigate, analyze and deal with the accidents.展开更多
Based on reason analyses for frequent flameout of HG-1025/18.2-YM6 boiler in a given power plant after coal quality variation, major factors such as unreasonable burner structure and inappropriate secondary air distri...Based on reason analyses for frequent flameout of HG-1025/18.2-YM6 boiler in a given power plant after coal quality variation, major factors such as unreasonable burner structure and inappropriate secondary air distribution were discussed in detail. A new mode of secondary air distribution was introduced to optimize the combustion performance, and a lower burner was retrofitted by increasing the relative distance between the primary air fuel rich-lean nozzles and reducing the size of waist air nozzles as well. As a result, the recirculating zone became more stable and the burner's combustion stability was improved.Practical operation shows that the modifications are so effective that the flameout problems caused by instable combustion never occur in operation.展开更多
There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion techn...There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion technique to analyze fire risk with a small sample. The information distribution method is applied to change crisp observations into fuzzy sets, and then to effectively construct a fuzzy relationship between fire and surroundings. With the data of Shanghai in winter, we show how to use the technique to analyze the fire risk.展开更多
The Weibull distribution has been widely used in reliability fields. A mixed Weibull distribution represents a popu- lation that consists of several Weibull subpopulations. In this paper, a new approach which combines...The Weibull distribution has been widely used in reliability fields. A mixed Weibull distribution represents a popu- lation that consists of several Weibull subpopulations. In this paper, a new approach which combines the least-squares method with Bayes’ theorem, takes advantage of the parameter estimation for single Weibull distribution is developed to estimate the pa- rameters of each subpopulation. The estimates given by this paper also satisfy the maximum likelihood equation. The estimates of the failure rate of the mixed Weibull population are given. An actual test data is computed by using the proposed method. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test turns out that the proposed method yields more accurate result.展开更多
In this paper, the authors will study the estimation of maintenance efficiency in Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity (ARI) and Arithmetic Reduction of Age (ARA) models with a memory m. These models have been propos...In this paper, the authors will study the estimation of maintenance efficiency in Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity (ARI) and Arithmetic Reduction of Age (ARA) models with a memory m. These models have been proposed by Doyen (2005), the failure process is simply Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). Our models are defined by reformulation of ARI and ARA ones using bathtub failure intensity. This form is presented like a superposition of two NHPP and Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP). Moreover, the particularity of this model allows taking account of system state improvement in time course. The maintenance effect is characterized by the change induced on the failure intensity before and after failure during degradation period. To simplify study, the asymptotic properties of failure process are derived. Then, the asymptotic normality of several maintenance efficiency estimators can be proved in the case where the failure process without maintenance is known. Practically, the coverage rate of the asymptotic confidence intervals issued from those estimators is studied.展开更多
Considering the actual operating experience of the Daode Wind Farm, this paper analyzes the rea-sons for the fault of the lO-kV switch cabinet. Some technical improvements and management measures, such as implementing...Considering the actual operating experience of the Daode Wind Farm, this paper analyzes the rea-sons for the fault of the lO-kV switch cabinet. Some technical improvements and management measures, such as implementing the anti-accident technical measures, improving the installation and debugging level, and strengthening operation inspection, are proposed.展开更多
The East Kunlun fault zone is located in the northern margin of the Bayan Har block. The study of earthquake rupture behavior in the fault zone is of importance for understanding the future seismic risk in northwest S...The East Kunlun fault zone is located in the northern margin of the Bayan Har block. The study of earthquake rupture behavior in the fault zone is of importance for understanding the future seismic risk in northwest Sichuan. A number of geological field investigations, typical micro topography DGPS measurements and sample dating show that the earthquake activity of the East Kunlun fault zone extends to the north boundary of Zoige basin, a segment known as the Luocha segment of Tazang fault. In the satellite image, the segment is seen clearly as gray and yellow strips. The earthquake deformation zone mainly features fault scarp, valleys on the slope, offset gullies and terraces, linear distribution of plants, waterfall, fault spring, fault sag pond, and landslide, collapse and talus associated with surface rupturing. These phenomena are distributed intermittently along the re-existing fault and form a ~50km-long inverse L-shaped deformation zone. Fault activities caused left-lateral offset of gullies and terraces, with horizontal displacement concentrated at 5.5m^6m, 18m~23m, 68m~75m, and 200m~220m, respectively. The recent earthquake occurred between 340±30~500±30BP. The macro epicenter is located 5km~7km northwest of Benduo village, with magnitude of MW7.3~7.4, maximum coseismic displacement of 6m, horizontal displacement 5.5m~6m and vertical displacement 0.2m~0.5m, being in a proportion of 5∶1~10∶1. These phenomena show that the Tazang fault is the causative fault of this earthquake. The fault is a Holocene active fault and was dominated recently by left-lateral movement with a small amount of thrust component under compressive shear stress. This characteristic is similar to the movement in other segments of the East Kunlun fault zone. The results of this study support the "continental escape" model.展开更多
VFDs (variable frequency drives) are an integral part of many industrial plants and stations. Reliable operation and maintenance of these drives is vital to ensure sustained plant operation and availability. Underst...VFDs (variable frequency drives) are an integral part of many industrial plants and stations. Reliable operation and maintenance of these drives is vital to ensure sustained plant operation and availability. Understanding of the principles of operation of VFD systems as well as knowledge about their required operating environment is necessary for all operating personnel. Many times the operating personnel do not get involved with different technical issues until a complete failure has occurred. Hence, the awareness of the most dominant failure causes has a significant impact on assisting operators to avoid catastrophic failures and tremendous economic losses due to VFD shutdown. Proper plant design, accurate monitoring and data logging, following manufacturer preventive maintenance schedule, and choosing qualified team of operators can be the key to an efficient operation and a long lifetime for any VFD system. In this paper, we have analyzed the electrical and non-electrical causes of VFD failures based on a case study of a typical medium voltage VFD pumping station. Finally, recommendations are given from field analysis and observations.展开更多
Eros and Thanatos are the forces of life and death. The Ancient Greek Philosophers never showed the two gods together. Nevertheless, in the main myths related to the netherworld such as those of Orpheus or Persephone,...Eros and Thanatos are the forces of life and death. The Ancient Greek Philosophers never showed the two gods together. Nevertheless, in the main myths related to the netherworld such as those of Orpheus or Persephone, the two gods are in a continuous fight which has determined the human condition until nowadays. The author wishes in this paper to examine how the Orpheus' myth related to the duality Eros and Thanatos is treated in Theo Angelopoulos' world and especially how it appears in Ulysses' Gaze (1995) and Trilogy: The Weeping Meadow (2004) and Dust of Time (2008). In this last Angelopoulos' Trilogy, we will search the unfolds of the love story of two young people started in Odessa in 1918 and finished by the death of the woman at the end of the century, under the lens of the duality Eros and Thanatos as literal and metaphorical qualities. The historical and personal adventures of the two characters represent a daedal itinerary from East to West, which offers multiple levels of reading of the filmic texts. A comparative approach with myth, literature, and historical research will demonstrate the richness of artistic expression and a profound relationship of Angelopoulos' thought with the formulaic myths he introduces in his filmic work.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to present works performed in HTC (Heat-Tech Center), Research & Development Centre of Veolia Group located in Warsaw regarding assessment of probability of failure in DHN (district heatin...The aim of this paper is to present works performed in HTC (Heat-Tech Center), Research & Development Centre of Veolia Group located in Warsaw regarding assessment of probability of failure in DHN (district heating network). This work is a part of a project dedicated to develop a software which objective is to increase reliability of DHN. The research methods consisted of three approaches. First, using database of failures which happened in Warsaw DHN and repairing protocols from past 10 years, a statistics approach was applied to perform first analysis. The result was that pipelines with nominal diameter DN (nominal diameter) ≤ 150 had higher failure rate per km, than pipelines with DN 〉 150. The next step of research was to study influence of internal (corrosion caused by heat carrier, quality of materials) and external (stray currents) factor in order to assess its individual influence on failure rate of pipe and explain reasons of differences in failure rate. To end a FMEA (failure mode and'effects analysis) will aim to identify the main failures modes appearing on DHN, to estimate the main causes of these failures and to propose the best solutions regarding the causes, the costs and the means available.展开更多
文摘The reliability expression of dynamic driving behavior is derived from the driving shaping behavioural model; and then, in accordance with the combination of computer simulation and mathematical expression of driving reliability, an approach for assessing the effect of driving erroneous actions on the dynamic performance of the driver vehicle system is presented. The analysis of driving erroneous actions in the driver vehicle system has been performed to show that the reliability during perception with variety widely could result in the incidents and/or accidents in traffic system.
基金Supported by the Science and Technological Tackling Project of Heilongjiang Province(GB06A106)
文摘In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,has poor diagnostic resolution.In this paper,a new method that combines SDG with qualitative trend analysis(QTA) is presented to improve the resolution.In the method,a bidirectional inference algorithm based on assumption and verification is used to find all the possible fault causes and their corresponding consistent paths in the SDG model.Then an improved QTA algorithm is used to extract and analyze the trends of nodes on the consis-tent paths found in the previous step.New consistency rules based on qualitative trends are used to find the real causes from the candidate causes.The resolution can be improved.This method combines the completeness feature of SDG with the good diagnostic resolution feature of QTA.The implementation of SDG-QTA based fault diagno-sis is done using the integrated SDG modeling,inference and post-processing software platform.Its application is illustrated on an atmospheric distillation tower unit of a simulation platform.The result shows its good applicability and efficiency.
文摘The possibility and causes of flight accidents by operational error/deviation in takeoff are analyzed in this paper. The following three stages are each described individually: before liftoff, near liftoff and initial climb. Relations of accident/incident causal factors by operational error with intrinsical flight mechanics are discussed.
文摘To control complex system's safety effectively,safety control program was supported based on the principles of behavioral science that shapes organizational be- havior,and organizational behavior produced individual behavior.The program can be structured into a model that consists of three modules including individual behavior rectifi- cation,organization behavior diagnosis and model of safety culture.The research result not only reveals the deep cause of complex system accidents but also provides structural descriptions with the accidents cause.
文摘This paper investigates the traffic accidents' trends and causes in Dubai. For this purpose, the traffic accident statistics for years 2003 to 2012 are used to examine the trends of different types of accidents and the causes of these accidents. Also, the paper determines the most common types of accidents over the study period and identifies some of the causes for these accidents. Furthermore, the paper shows the impact of the new traffic law amendments, which were issued in 2008, on the accident rates and trends. The results showed that the implementation of the traffic law amendments did not have major impact in year 2008. However, there was a significant effect of these amendments in the following years. Also, lack of awareness of traffic laws and regulations in Dubai has been proven to be one of the major causes of accidents. Finally, the paper provides some recommendations to reduce the traffic accident rates, in order to achieve the Dubai Police Department 2020 strategic goal to have zero fatalities.
文摘Statistics and analysis was made in causes, places and proportions about all kinds of disasters and accidents in coal mines of China in resent 50 years. The analysis indicates the emphasis reason that result in the accidents in coal mines are artificial cause explosion of mash gas and coal dust, water flood, fire hazard. The accidents mostly happened on stope which is more often than other places, following by the driving work face. This not only supplies the managers with basic reference about safe administration, but also suggests the countermeasures in reducing accidents: improve the disposition of person, perfect all kinds of rules and regulations, severely investigate, analyze and deal with the accidents.
文摘Based on reason analyses for frequent flameout of HG-1025/18.2-YM6 boiler in a given power plant after coal quality variation, major factors such as unreasonable burner structure and inappropriate secondary air distribution were discussed in detail. A new mode of secondary air distribution was introduced to optimize the combustion performance, and a lower burner was retrofitted by increasing the relative distance between the primary air fuel rich-lean nozzles and reducing the size of waist air nozzles as well. As a result, the recirculating zone became more stable and the burner's combustion stability was improved.Practical operation shows that the modifications are so effective that the flameout problems caused by instable combustion never occur in operation.
文摘There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion technique to analyze fire risk with a small sample. The information distribution method is applied to change crisp observations into fuzzy sets, and then to effectively construct a fuzzy relationship between fire and surroundings. With the data of Shanghai in winter, we show how to use the technique to analyze the fire risk.
文摘The Weibull distribution has been widely used in reliability fields. A mixed Weibull distribution represents a popu- lation that consists of several Weibull subpopulations. In this paper, a new approach which combines the least-squares method with Bayes’ theorem, takes advantage of the parameter estimation for single Weibull distribution is developed to estimate the pa- rameters of each subpopulation. The estimates given by this paper also satisfy the maximum likelihood equation. The estimates of the failure rate of the mixed Weibull population are given. An actual test data is computed by using the proposed method. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test turns out that the proposed method yields more accurate result.
文摘In this paper, the authors will study the estimation of maintenance efficiency in Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity (ARI) and Arithmetic Reduction of Age (ARA) models with a memory m. These models have been proposed by Doyen (2005), the failure process is simply Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). Our models are defined by reformulation of ARI and ARA ones using bathtub failure intensity. This form is presented like a superposition of two NHPP and Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP). Moreover, the particularity of this model allows taking account of system state improvement in time course. The maintenance effect is characterized by the change induced on the failure intensity before and after failure during degradation period. To simplify study, the asymptotic properties of failure process are derived. Then, the asymptotic normality of several maintenance efficiency estimators can be proved in the case where the failure process without maintenance is known. Practically, the coverage rate of the asymptotic confidence intervals issued from those estimators is studied.
文摘Considering the actual operating experience of the Daode Wind Farm, this paper analyzes the rea-sons for the fault of the lO-kV switch cabinet. Some technical improvements and management measures, such as implementing the anti-accident technical measures, improving the installation and debugging level, and strengthening operation inspection, are proposed.
基金funded by the National 973 Project of China ( Grant No. 2008CB425701 )Basic Scientific Research Fund of Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA (No. 02092437)
文摘The East Kunlun fault zone is located in the northern margin of the Bayan Har block. The study of earthquake rupture behavior in the fault zone is of importance for understanding the future seismic risk in northwest Sichuan. A number of geological field investigations, typical micro topography DGPS measurements and sample dating show that the earthquake activity of the East Kunlun fault zone extends to the north boundary of Zoige basin, a segment known as the Luocha segment of Tazang fault. In the satellite image, the segment is seen clearly as gray and yellow strips. The earthquake deformation zone mainly features fault scarp, valleys on the slope, offset gullies and terraces, linear distribution of plants, waterfall, fault spring, fault sag pond, and landslide, collapse and talus associated with surface rupturing. These phenomena are distributed intermittently along the re-existing fault and form a ~50km-long inverse L-shaped deformation zone. Fault activities caused left-lateral offset of gullies and terraces, with horizontal displacement concentrated at 5.5m^6m, 18m~23m, 68m~75m, and 200m~220m, respectively. The recent earthquake occurred between 340±30~500±30BP. The macro epicenter is located 5km~7km northwest of Benduo village, with magnitude of MW7.3~7.4, maximum coseismic displacement of 6m, horizontal displacement 5.5m~6m and vertical displacement 0.2m~0.5m, being in a proportion of 5∶1~10∶1. These phenomena show that the Tazang fault is the causative fault of this earthquake. The fault is a Holocene active fault and was dominated recently by left-lateral movement with a small amount of thrust component under compressive shear stress. This characteristic is similar to the movement in other segments of the East Kunlun fault zone. The results of this study support the "continental escape" model.
文摘VFDs (variable frequency drives) are an integral part of many industrial plants and stations. Reliable operation and maintenance of these drives is vital to ensure sustained plant operation and availability. Understanding of the principles of operation of VFD systems as well as knowledge about their required operating environment is necessary for all operating personnel. Many times the operating personnel do not get involved with different technical issues until a complete failure has occurred. Hence, the awareness of the most dominant failure causes has a significant impact on assisting operators to avoid catastrophic failures and tremendous economic losses due to VFD shutdown. Proper plant design, accurate monitoring and data logging, following manufacturer preventive maintenance schedule, and choosing qualified team of operators can be the key to an efficient operation and a long lifetime for any VFD system. In this paper, we have analyzed the electrical and non-electrical causes of VFD failures based on a case study of a typical medium voltage VFD pumping station. Finally, recommendations are given from field analysis and observations.
文摘Eros and Thanatos are the forces of life and death. The Ancient Greek Philosophers never showed the two gods together. Nevertheless, in the main myths related to the netherworld such as those of Orpheus or Persephone, the two gods are in a continuous fight which has determined the human condition until nowadays. The author wishes in this paper to examine how the Orpheus' myth related to the duality Eros and Thanatos is treated in Theo Angelopoulos' world and especially how it appears in Ulysses' Gaze (1995) and Trilogy: The Weeping Meadow (2004) and Dust of Time (2008). In this last Angelopoulos' Trilogy, we will search the unfolds of the love story of two young people started in Odessa in 1918 and finished by the death of the woman at the end of the century, under the lens of the duality Eros and Thanatos as literal and metaphorical qualities. The historical and personal adventures of the two characters represent a daedal itinerary from East to West, which offers multiple levels of reading of the filmic texts. A comparative approach with myth, literature, and historical research will demonstrate the richness of artistic expression and a profound relationship of Angelopoulos' thought with the formulaic myths he introduces in his filmic work.
文摘The aim of this paper is to present works performed in HTC (Heat-Tech Center), Research & Development Centre of Veolia Group located in Warsaw regarding assessment of probability of failure in DHN (district heating network). This work is a part of a project dedicated to develop a software which objective is to increase reliability of DHN. The research methods consisted of three approaches. First, using database of failures which happened in Warsaw DHN and repairing protocols from past 10 years, a statistics approach was applied to perform first analysis. The result was that pipelines with nominal diameter DN (nominal diameter) ≤ 150 had higher failure rate per km, than pipelines with DN 〉 150. The next step of research was to study influence of internal (corrosion caused by heat carrier, quality of materials) and external (stray currents) factor in order to assess its individual influence on failure rate of pipe and explain reasons of differences in failure rate. To end a FMEA (failure mode and'effects analysis) will aim to identify the main failures modes appearing on DHN, to estimate the main causes of these failures and to propose the best solutions regarding the causes, the costs and the means available.