夏季西太平洋副热带高压准双周振荡的动力学机制

本文用动力学分析的方法对西太平洋副热带高压准双周振荡的机制进行了探讨。结果表明:在东亚特定的环流条件下,东亚大陆季风雨带和南海至西太平洋地区热带雨带凝结潜热的热力强迫作用均可激发出天气尺度的准双周CISK波动,其波动动能向东亚大陆副热带地区的频散变化存在一种“自我调整”过程,从而引导西太平洋副热带高压的进退。

夏季对流层高层的低频波导

利用ECMWF的格点资料,研究了1980年6—9月200hPa上的双周振荡过程。发现在40—180°E范围内存在两支经向波导,分别位于60°E和120°E附近。两支波导形成的原因不同,在季风系统的中期变动中所起的作用也不同。

Intraseasonal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin

This work investigates the boreal-summer intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB)during 1979–2016,based on daily Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data.The ISV of the summer monsoon rainfall over the LYRB is mainly dominated by the lower-frequency 12–20-day variability and the higher-frequency 8–12-day variability.The lower-frequency variability is found to be related to the northwestwardpropagating quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)over the western North Pacific spanning the South China Sea(SCS)and Philippine Sea,while the higher-frequency variability is related to the southeastward propagating midlatitude wave train(MLWT).Moreover,not each active QBWO(MLWT)in the SCS(East Asia)can generate ISV components of the precipitation anomaly over the LYRB.The QBWO can change the rainfall significantly with the modulation of mean state precipitation,while the quasi-11-day mode mainly depends on the intensity of the MLWT rather than the mean precipitation change.These findings should enrich our understanding of the ISV of the East Asian summer monsoon and improve its predictability.

Effect of the westward-propagating zonal wind anomaly on the initial development of quasi-biweekly oscillation over the South China Sea during early summer

The characteristics of quasi-biweekly oscillation（QBWO） over the South China Sea during early summer are investigated.Composite results demonstrate that QBWO convection and the meridional wind anomaly exhibit local variation,while the zonal wind anomaly displays zonal propagation.Besides,emergence of the zonal wind anomaly precedes the enhancement of QBWO convection,suggesting the zonally propagating zonal wind anomaly may play a key role in initiating the development of QBWO convection.Diagnostics of the convergence of moisture flux and divergence tendency indicate that QBWO convection is primarily modulated by eddy divergence.Among the contributing factors in the divergence tendency,the β effect associated with the zonally-propagating zonal wind anomaly makes an appropriate phase difference with the eddy divergence,which can contribute to the convergence tendency in the initial stage of QBWO.As a result,QBWO convection and the meridional wind anomaly are enhanced,thus facilitating the initial development of QBWO convection over the SCS during early summer.

Potential vorticity analysis of quasi-biweekly rainfall events over the Yangtze Basin in summer 2014

A series of heavy rainfall events occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in summer 2014,which were modulated by the 10-20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO).Thus,the strongest QBWO cycle for the period 10-24 July was used as a representative case to reveal the dynamical mechanism for the QBWO of the YRV rainfall from the potential vorticity(PV)perspective and based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data.The quasi-biweekly YRV rainfall was found to depend closely on the QBWO of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high(SAH),with the SAH configuration modified by the southward-intruding midlatitude high PV stream along with southwestward-advected high PV,altering the divergent condition over the YRV.Quantitative diagnoses for the anomalous vertical motion demonstrated that,in the wet phase of the QBWO cycle,the upper-tropospheric southward-intruding high PV stream acted as a positive PV advection,while negative PV advection was generated due to the lower-tropospheric southerlies,thereby forming a positive vertical gradient of horizontal PV advection to induce evident isentropic-displacement ascending motion.On the other hand,the southward-intruding high PV stream extended downward to the middle troposphere,causing the isentropic surfaces to become more sloping,thus producing a strong isentropic-gliding ascending component.Subsequently,the stronger diabatic heating-related ascending motion was induced to generate positive rainfall anomalies over the YRV.The opposite situation arose in the dry phase,with weak descending motion in magnitude.

Estimating the Predictability of the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Using the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Approach

The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is a major intraseasonal variability (ISV) in the tropics. Based on bandpass-filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and wind field data, the predictability limits of the QBWO in boreal summer and boreal winter are investigated using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach The analysis shows that the evolution of the mean error growth of the QBWO in boreal summer and the evolution of the mean error growth in boreal winter are comparable Both curves exhibit rapid growth in the initial stage followed by a slowly fluctuating, ascending trend before saturation is reached. As a result, the potential predictability limits for the boreal summer QBWO are very close to those for the boreal winter QBWO, with a lead time of approximately three weeks. Given the current limitations in the simulation and prediction of ISV, including the QBWO, the results of this study provide a useful reference for assessing the predictability of the QBWO using model simulations.