Demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia is growing at a significant annual rate of nearly 8%. It is expected that, by 2030, the demand will increase to about 120 GW per year, approximately three times the 2010 load. Sa...Demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia is growing at a significant annual rate of nearly 8%. It is expected that, by 2030, the demand will increase to about 120 GW per year, approximately three times the 2010 load. Satisfying this demand will require a significant investment in the power grid at an estimated cost, over the next 10 years, ofSAR （Saudi Arabia Riyal） 500 billion. Existing power plants rely on oil and natural gas, it is anticipated that meeting the demand in 2030 will consume 3 million barrels ofoil each day, which significantly impacting the economy by reducing the country＇s income from oil exports, which is a hot button for Saudi decision makers. This paper reviews the responses of various countries in meeting their loads, and therefore, draws recommendations for some resources that should, and should not, be considered best-candidate options for Saudi Arabia economically, technically and environmentally. The discussion primarily examines renewable and nuclear resources.展开更多
为保障省级区域的可再生能源电量在电力消费中的占比,政府推出了可再生能源消纳责任权重考核制度,受考核方从发电侧转移至用户侧。考核方式的变动,将很大程度影响火电厂商的利益和参与绿色证书(tradable green certificate,TGC)交易的...为保障省级区域的可再生能源电量在电力消费中的占比,政府推出了可再生能源消纳责任权重考核制度,受考核方从发电侧转移至用户侧。考核方式的变动,将很大程度影响火电厂商的利益和参与绿色证书(tradable green certificate,TGC)交易的积极性。火电在我国的发电占比较高,火电厂商能否积极响应绿电市场,将极大影响新政策的实施效果。政府需要设置合理的政策参数引导火电厂商的交易策略,以实现理想的博弈均衡结果。以此新变动构建了有限理性下结合绿电厂商、火电厂商、受考核用户三方的演化博弈理论(evolutionary game theory,EGT)模型,模拟了不同参数条件下的火电厂商策略演化和TGC市场的变化趋势。研究结果表明:现有条件下政策参数在±10%波动内所有火电厂商都会达到参与TGC交易的理想演化稳定策略(evolutionary stable strategies,ESS)点。但当政策负担加重时,火电厂商达到ESS点的速率都将大幅减缓。政府应维持或适当降低现阶段政策负担水平,促使火电厂商积极响应TGC交易,以保障新政策高效稳定的推行。展开更多
文摘Demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia is growing at a significant annual rate of nearly 8%. It is expected that, by 2030, the demand will increase to about 120 GW per year, approximately three times the 2010 load. Satisfying this demand will require a significant investment in the power grid at an estimated cost, over the next 10 years, ofSAR （Saudi Arabia Riyal） 500 billion. Existing power plants rely on oil and natural gas, it is anticipated that meeting the demand in 2030 will consume 3 million barrels ofoil each day, which significantly impacting the economy by reducing the country＇s income from oil exports, which is a hot button for Saudi decision makers. This paper reviews the responses of various countries in meeting their loads, and therefore, draws recommendations for some resources that should, and should not, be considered best-candidate options for Saudi Arabia economically, technically and environmentally. The discussion primarily examines renewable and nuclear resources.
文摘为保障省级区域的可再生能源电量在电力消费中的占比,政府推出了可再生能源消纳责任权重考核制度,受考核方从发电侧转移至用户侧。考核方式的变动,将很大程度影响火电厂商的利益和参与绿色证书(tradable green certificate,TGC)交易的积极性。火电在我国的发电占比较高,火电厂商能否积极响应绿电市场,将极大影响新政策的实施效果。政府需要设置合理的政策参数引导火电厂商的交易策略,以实现理想的博弈均衡结果。以此新变动构建了有限理性下结合绿电厂商、火电厂商、受考核用户三方的演化博弈理论(evolutionary game theory,EGT)模型,模拟了不同参数条件下的火电厂商策略演化和TGC市场的变化趋势。研究结果表明:现有条件下政策参数在±10%波动内所有火电厂商都会达到参与TGC交易的理想演化稳定策略(evolutionary stable strategies,ESS)点。但当政策负担加重时,火电厂商达到ESS点的速率都将大幅减缓。政府应维持或适当降低现阶段政策负担水平,促使火电厂商积极响应TGC交易,以保障新政策高效稳定的推行。
