装备试验评估中的变动统计问题与方法

随着装备性能的提高和试验过程的复杂化,变动统计问题逐渐成为装备试验评估领域中亟待解决的重要问题,需要融合不同阶段、不同来源的异总体试验数据对产品研制、生产、使用过程中的性能变化过程进行恰当的建模与评估。首先分析了变动统计问题的主要特征,并简要回顾了变动统计问题在装备质量与性能指标评估领域中的研究历程。针对变动统计问题所面临的主要研究对象,分析了其中需要解决的若干关键问题。通过与其他几个相关研究领域的比较,提出了变动统计的基本内涵。最后,归纳提出了基本的变动统计方法:基于约束关系的多总体融合估计、基于线性模型的变动总体建模与预测和基于Bayes方法的多源验前信息融合,并对各类方法的特点与前景进行了讨论与展望。

基于变动统计的复杂系统可靠性综合评估

为了在小样本条件下实现对复杂系统的可靠性评估,研究了复杂系统的环境、功能、状态及演化过程的随机特性,给出了一种基于变动统计的复杂系统可靠性综合评估方法。针对复杂系统的特点,根据变动统计理论,通过引入环境因子、继承因子和增长因子等方法,综合利用复杂系统在研制过程中的不同环境、阶段、层次和对象的试验数据,对复杂系统可靠性进行综合评估。以某战术武器系统为应用对象,结果表明该方法综合利用了武器系统在研制过程中的多种试验数据,扩大了样本量,有效地改善了多指标要求的战术武器系统可靠性评估精度。

变动统计方法及其在试验评估技术中的应用综述

变动统计方法是试验评估领域中的一种重要的理论方法。通过追溯变动统计方法的源起与发展概况,探讨了变动统计所研究的主要问题以及解决问题的基本思想和一般规律。然后,较为详细地叙述了变动统计方法在可靠性增长试验评估和武器系统性能评估中的具体应用和发展现状。最后,归纳提出了实现变动统计的3种基本方法:基于约束关系的多总体融合估计与统计推断、基于线性模型的变动总体建模与预测、基于Bayes方法的多源信息融合。

基于Bayes变动统计理论的测试性综合评估模型及其稳健性分析

在测试性综合评估研究中,故障检测率(Fault detection rate,FDR)/故障隔离率(Fault isolation rate,FIR)评估结论置信度低是一个非常重要的问题,而导致其评估结论置信度低的主要原因是故障检测/隔离数据为'小子样'数据,为解决该问题,建立在Bayes变动统计理论基础上的模型和方法是非常有效的。利用丰富的可更换单元测试性信息、专家经验等先验信息,确定先验分布参数,实现了将先验信息转化为多元Dirichlet先验分布。在此基础上,基于Bayes变动统计理论研究并建立FDR/FIR综合评估模型,保证'小子样、异总体'阶段性增长试验数据和'小子样'外场使用数据能被有效地融合,并采用仿真方法对模型的稳健性进行分析。结果表明该FDR/FIR综合评估模型和方法,能在小样本数据情况下,有效提高评估结论置信度,缩短装备定型周期,为装备测试性综合评估研究提供重要的理论依据和方法。

人力资源统计的内容与指标体系设计

人是生产力中最活跃的因素,只有科学地评价、长远地规划、合理地配置人力资源,才能取得应有的经济效益.所以,建立人力资源统计,全面观察人力资源的利用状况,是统计理论工作者和实际工作者迫切需要解决的问题.通过对它的研究,有助于扩大统计领域,有助于完善统计理论,有助于合理地配置人力资源,提高经济效益,有助于唤起全民的经济意识,具有深远的理论意义和现实价值.

直接消耗系数变动的比较分析

一、引言自从Ｗ．Ｌｅｏｎｔｉｅｆ提出投入产出技术以来，投入产出技术在分析经济问题时取得了很大的成功。由于投入产出表的编制及出版一般要滞后于编表年份大约５年左右，并且，投入产出技术的两个基本假定（比例性假定和同质性假定）以及用于实际预测时常假定直接消耗...

高价值弹药可靠性综合评定方法研究

为解决高价值弹药可靠性鉴定中试验样本量大、成本高的问题,提出了基于小子样变动统计思想的可靠性综合评定方法。考虑到弹药可靠性在研制阶段上呈现动态特性、环境上呈现差异特性和相似装备上呈现关联特性,基于小子样变动统计思想建立了弹药可靠性综合评定模型;针对多源历史样本的“异母体”问题,以信息熵和条件熵理论对无历史样本下和有历史样本下可靠度的不确定性进行量化,以不确定度减少比率作为该历史样本相较于现场样本的继承因子;基于贝塔分布函数和继承因子构建了关于可靠度的混合先验分布,由贝叶斯理论推导得到可靠度的验后分布,从而实现对高价值弹药的高效可靠性评定。以某型弹药为应用对象,验证了本文方法的有效性和合理性。

The Statistical Distribution for 0-Deformed Crystal Lattice Vibration for Generic Atomic String

In this paper, a g-deformation of crystal lattice vibration for generic atomic string is suggested. The expression for energy spectrum depends on g-deformed parameter have been obtained. The statistical distribution of g-deformed crystal lattice vibration is calculated and this result is very much different from there of q-deformed crystal lattice vibration.

Design and dynamic simulation of hydraulic system of a new automatic transmission

A new hydraulic system of a novel automatic transmission (AT) was designed. The dimension and structure of valves and cylinders were designed by theoretical calculation. The dynamic simulation model of hydraulic system of AT was established by ITI-SimulationX. Simulation results and theoretical design results were compared to confirm the simulation model. Based on the confirmed simulation model, the simulation results of pressure and flow of the hydraulic system were analyzed. The dynamic simulation method is very helpful for designing and analyzing the performance of hydraulic system and further optimization design. The theoretical design method and dynamic simulation model are feasible for the real industrial applications. The research results can be used in hydraulic system design and optimization.

Assessment of Heart Rate Variability and Heart Rate Turbulence Parameters in the Patients with Arterial Hypertension of the II Degree

Background： AH （Arterial hypertension） due to the extremely high incidence is the most important risk factor for development of myocardial infarctions, strokes and lethal outcomes. It is very important to identify a group of patients with increased risk of adverse outcomes to modify treatment and prevention. Significant assistance in resolving this problem is to provide a method of HM （Holter monitoring） which allows estimating the HRV （heart rate variability） and HRT （heart rate turbulence） parameters that are independent risk predictors of sudden cardiac death. The aim of our study was to assess HRV and HRT parameters in patients with AH of the II degree. Materials and methods： We have studied parameters of HRV and HRT in 214 patients with AH of the II-nd degree aged 35 to 70 （57.7 ± 7.6） years： 121 women （56.5%） and 93 men （43.5%）. All patients underwent electrocardiography and echocardiography. Statistical analysis of the results has been made using the analytical package Statistics 10.0. Results： The parameters of HRV and HRT in patients with AH of the II degree were studied. Statistically significant correlations of the HRV parameters with the age of patients, average HR, circadian index, and EF （ejection fraction） were revealed. Statistically significant correlations of the HRT parameters with the LVMI （left ventricular mass index）, EF, HR average were received. High level of the statistical significance of the interrelation of HRT parameters （TO and TS） has been revealed. Conclusions： The received results can be used during the selection of the group of patients with AH having high risk for unfavorable outcomes. Taking into account the features of the HRV and turbulence parameters and factors associated with them this will enable the individualization of the assessment of the risk in AH as much as possible and prescription of adequate treatment for each patient.

A Survey of the Effect of Socioeconomics on the Evolution of Millinery Styles： A Case Study of the U.S. From 1900 Through the 1960s

This study explores the relationship between socioeconomics and millinery style through an analysis of statistical data from the United States Bureau of Statistics. It was very common for women to wear hats in the early 20th century. Most studies regarding millinery are limited to a discussion of style, while some focus on extended functions of millinery styles such as how they aid in social communication. In this study, we discuss the relationship between a woman＇s socioeconomic status and her hat-wearing behavior. This study covers the period from 1900 through the 1960s, when there was a sudden decline in hat-wearing behavior. We analyzed the changes in the number of people listed in various occupational categories in the U.S. Bureau of Statistics data for each decade. Careful observation of labor distribution statistics for the job market can yield valuable insights about women＇s hat-wearing behaviors. Fluctuations in the population of the lower class were significantly correlated with changes in millinery. We also identified time-sensitive periods in millinery style that coincided with the two World Wars.

Statistical Reconstruction of the Antarctic Oscillation Index Based on Multiple Proxies

Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (<50 a). By applying a multivariate regression method, the observational AAO-proxy relations were calibrated and cross-validated for the period of 1957 89. The regressions were employed to compute the DJF-AAO index for 1500 1956. To verify the results, the authors checked the explained variance (r 2 ), the reduction of error (RE), and the standard error (SE). Cross-validation was performed by applying a leave-one-out validation method. Over the entire reconstruction period, the mean values of r 2 , RE, and SE are 59.9%, 0.47, and 0.67, respectively. These statistics indicate that the DJF-AAO reconstruction is relatively skillful and reliable for the last ～460 years. The reconstructed AAO variations on the interannual and interdecadal timescales compare favorably with those of several shorter sea level pressure (SLP)-based AAO indices. The leading periods of the DJF-AAO index over the last 500 years are ～2.4, ～2.6, ～6.3, ～24.1, and ～37.6 years, all of which are significant at the 95% level as estimated by power spectral analysis.

机载武器作战使用可靠性综合验证

为减少机载武器可靠性验证试验样本量和降低验证试验风险,通过对机载武器作战使用可靠性验证的工程需求、试验方案、统计模型、验证方法等进行研究,提出了一种利用研制试验数据和定型飞行试验数据的作战使用可靠性综合验证方法。针对机载武器的特点,根据变动统计理论,考虑性能验证与可靠性验证的要求,综合利用研制试验数据和定型飞行试验数据,给出作战使用可靠性综合验证方案,进而制定设计定型飞行试验方案。实例表明,在不改变生产方风险和使用方风险的情况下,该方法可有效地验证机载武器挂飞可靠性和自主飞行可靠性指标,显著地减少定型飞行试验样本量,大幅节约研制成本,并缩短研制周期。

Traditional Chinese Medicine symptom patterns in patients with colorectal carcinoma

OBJECTIVE: To observe the symptom patterns(or syndromes) according to Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM) theory in patients with various stages of colorectal cancer, and to observe the dynamic evolution process of these TCM patterns.METHODS: A prospective and cross-sectional questionnaire-based investigation was performed. Clinical data on TCM symptom patterns in patients with colorectal cancer in the perioperative period(210 cases) and adjuvant treatment period(160 cases)were collected. EPIData 3.1 together with frequency statistics and cluster analyses were performed to identify the TCM patterns based on symptom characteristics in patients with colorectal cancer, and to assess the dynamic changes in these patterns.RESULTS: In the perioperative period, from the first day of perioperative care to postoperative days 3,7, and 10, the TCM pattern showed a process of dynamic change from blood deficiency to deficiency of both Qi and Yin and the pattern of dampness and hot accumulative knotting. In the adjuvant treatment period, the TCM pattern changed from Qi deficiency and Yin deficiency inner-heat with dampness to a deficiency pattern, primarily including Yin deficiency of the liver and kidney, deficiency of Qi and blood, and spleen deficiency.CONCLUSION: Our study confirmed that variations in the dynamic evolution of TCM symptom patterns exist in patients with colorectal cancer during different treatment periods. This information is of great value in the individualized management of colorectal cancer.