我国未来城镇人口规模及人口结构变动预测

对城镇人口规模和结构变动给予合理预测,有助于政府预估社会的劳动力供给和养老压力,进而制定合理高效的社会保障政策和进行相应政策调整。本文从规范的人口学角度,采用队列要素法通过年龄移算,在考虑城镇人口基数、出生率、死亡率、性别比以及城市化背景下乡城人口的净迁移率等多个参数的情况下,通过编制我国城镇人口生命表,对从现在起至未来2030年的时间内我国城镇人口的规模和结构进行动态预测,从而为我国制定合理而有针对性的城镇人口政策和经济政策提供参考。

经济技术开发区人口变动预测实证研究——以青岛经济技术开发区为例

利用由生育、死亡、迁移以及人口年龄移算等四个子模块组成的人口预测模型,对青岛经济技术开发区未来人口变动特点进行了预测分析,并提出了五点建议第一,规范人口迁移机制,有效保障劳动力供求平衡,为开发区经济健康发展保驾护航;第二,强化流动人口管理与服务,防止流动人口社会权益“边缘化”;第三,继续加强出生性别比监管,杜绝计划外生育,稳定低生育水平;第四,深化“人才是第一资源”的理念,强化人才工作机制,实施人才强区战略;第五,未雨绸缪,提早积累养老资金,积极发展老年事业。

季节变动预测模型在药房备药系统中的应用

目前,医院信息管理系统的已经广泛应用于各大医院,药品管理系统作为医院信息管理系统中的一部分,有效地提高了医务工作人员的工作效率。然而,对于医院药房制定采购计划仅局限于通过设立高低限量和凭借主观经验来控制采购药品的数量。这样并不能克服药品的积压和断货现象。由于药品的消耗具有季节性,所以选择季节变动预测法作为药房药品备药的预测模型。通过本方法能够预测药品的需求量,辅助拟定采购计划,有效地克服药品的积压和断货现象。

关于主导产品销量的“趋势—季度”变动预测

通过对主导产品Φ108mm×4.5mm热轧管销量的预测,从理论上、实践上详尽阐述了“趋势—季度”变动预测模型在实际生产经营中的具体运用,同时对模型的正确性也进行了实际验证。这对当今企业生产经营工作中各种目标的定量预测,具有重要的现实意义。

中国期货市场价格变动预测的可能性研究

通过对国内天胶主力期货市场的实际数据(包括每日成交量、持仓量、价格、开盘价、收盘价及价格的变化量等)进行详细分析,试图建立数据之间各种可能的统计联系,并分析统计关系的可靠性,从而提出天胶期货价格预测及投机可能性的结论。

禽肉方便营养食品的市场预测分析

本文以八达食品有限公司为案例,运用运筹学及计算机辅助管理原理,对其生产的产品--禽肉方便营养食品在市场上的营销历史和现状进行深入研究和分析,建立数学模型并运用计算机进行科学预测.

对海南主要城市商品住宅价格分析预测

“房价”一直是人们关注的问题。文章对海口市和三亚市商品住宅各种影响因素进行了定性和定量分析,同时利用VAR模型和季节变动法等方法预测了海口市商品住宅价格变化趋势。最后得出:商品住宅价格与全市常住总人口的正相关性最大,与恩格尔系数负相关性最强。房屋销售面积、房地产开发投资等几组变量间具有显著正相关性。未来五年海口市商品住宅价格逐渐上升,但是上升趋势逐渐变得缓慢。

山西晋城市城镇居民消费结构的实证研究

研究居民消费结构的发展趋势和规律性,对引导居民消费、优化产业配置、促进国民经济协调快速发展具有重要意义。运用计量经济分析与时间序列分析方法,对晋城市城镇居民的消费需求结构进行实证分析与预测,有助于为制定消费政策、正确地引导居民消费提供科学依据。

Dynamic recrystallization behavior of burn resistant titanium alloy Ti-25V-15Cr-0.2Si

Dynamic recrystallization (DRX) behavior in β phase region for the burn resistant titanium alloy Ti?25V?15Cr?0.2Si was investigated with a compression test in the temperature range of 950?1100 °C and the strain rate of 0.001?1 s?1. The results show that deformation mechanism of this alloy in hot deformation is dominated by DRX, and new grains of DRX are evolved by bulging nucleation mechanism as a predominant mechanism. DRX occurs more easily with the decrease of strain rate and the increase of deformation temperature. Grain refinement is achieved due to DRX during the hot deformation at strain rate range of 0.01?0.1 s?1 and temperature range of 950?1050 °C. DRX grain coarsening is observed for the alloy deformed at the higher temperatures of 1100 °C and the lower strain rates of 0.001 s?1. Finally, in order to determine the recrystallized fraction and DRX grain size under different deformation conditions, the prediction models of recrystallization kinetics and recrystallized grain sizes were established.

兰州人口长期变动趋势预测及综合评价和优化策略探究

首先预测了兰州人口发展的长期变动趋势,然后基于“七普”数据,对兰州人口变动长期趋势及影响进行综合评价。最后,基于“七普”数据,通过归纳、总结,提出兰州优化人口发展的策略。

Mountain ground movement prediction caused by mining based on BP-neural network

Six main influencing factors： slope, aspect, distance, angle, angle of coal seam, and the ratio of depth and thickness, were selected by Grey correlation theory and Grey relational analysis procedure programmed by the MATLAB software package to select the surface movement and deformation parameters. On this basis, the paper built a BP neural network model that takes the six main influencing factors as input data and corresponding value of ground subsidence as output data. Ground subsidence of the 3406 mining face in Haoyu Coal was predicted by the trained BP neural network. By comparing the prediction and the practices, the research shows that it is feasible to use the 13P neural network to predict mountain mining subsidence.

Application of probability integral method in ground deformation prediction

In order to study the law of mining subsidence and ground movement, to provide the basis of coal mining under building, railway and water, we used the probability integration method to make comprehensive evaluation of ground stability. Take Yingcheng Coal Mine of Jiutai as an example. Mining-induced movement and horizontal movement are analyzed on the basis of the measurement data. The resuhs of prediction can pro- vide reference and basis for prevention of coal mining subsidence and future restoration and treatment.

A novel method to predict static transmission error for spur gear pair based on accuracy grade

This paper proposes a novel method to predict the spur gear pair’s static transmission error based on the accuracy grade,in which manufacturing errors(MEs),assembly errors(AEs),tooth deflections(TDs)and profile modifications(PMs)are considered.For the prediction,a discrete gear model for generating the error tooth profile based on the ISO accuracy grade is presented.Then,the gear model and a tooth deflection model for calculating the tooth compliance on gear meshing are coupled with the transmission error model to make the prediction by checking the interference status between gear and pinion.The prediction method is validated by comparison with the experimental results from the literature,and a set of cases are simulated to study the effects of MEs,AEs,TDs and PMs on the static transmission error.In addition,the time-varying backlash caused by both MEs and AEs,and the contact ratio under load conditions are also investigated.The results show that the novel method can effectively predict the range of the static transmission error under different accuracy grades.The prediction results can provide references for the selection of gear design parameters and the optimization of transmission performance in the design stage of gear systems.

Prognostic performance of interleukin-10 in patients with chest pain and mild to moderate coronary artery lesions an 8-year follow-up study

Background Interleukin （IL）-10, IL-6 and their ratio （IL-6/IL-10） play an important role in the risk of developing coronary artery disease, and may correlate with its outcomes. Few clinical trials have investigated the prognostic impact of these factors on long-term car- diovascular events in patients presented with chest pain. Methods A prospective study was performed on 566 patients admitted with chest pain and identified mild to moderate coronary artery lesions. 1L-10, IL-6 and IL-6/IL-10 were measured. Results A total of 511 patients com- pleted the follow-up. The median follow-up time was 74 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a clear increase of the incidence of major adverse cardiac events during the follow-up period in patients with below-median levels of IL-10 （P = 0.006） and above-median levels of IL-6/IL-10 （P = 0.012）. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis indicated the IL-10 levels to be strong independent predictors after adjustment for underlying confounders. Conclusions Elevated IL-10 levels are associated with a more favorable long-term prognosis in patients with chest pain and mild to moderate coronary artery lesions. IL-10 could be used for early risk assessment of long-term prognosis.

Model of critical strain for dynamic recrystallization in 10%TiC/Cu-Al_2O_3 composite

Using the Gleeble-1500 D simulator, the hot deformation behavior and dynamic recrystallization critical conditions of the 10%Ti C/Cu-Al2O3(volume fraction) composite were investigated by compression tests at the temperatures from 450 °C to 850 °C with the strain rates from 0.001 s-1 to 1 s-1. The results show that the softening mechanism of the dynamic recrystallization is a feature of high-temperature flow true stress-strain curves of the composite, and the peak stress increases with the decreasing deformation temperature or the increasing strain rate. The thermal deformation activation energy was calculated as 170.732 k J/mol and the constitutive equation was established. The inflection point in the lnθ-ε curve appears and the minimum value of-(lnθ)/ε-ε curve is presented when the critical state is attained for this composite. The critical strain increases with the increasing strain rate or the decreasing deformation temperature. There is linear relationship between critical strain and peak strain, i.e., εc=0.572εp. The predicting model of critical strain is described by the function of εc=1.062×10-2Z0.0826.

Alternate Form of Damped Wave Conduction and Relaxation Equation a Capite Adcalcem in Temperature

An alternate non-Fourier heat conduction equation is derived from consideration of translation motion of spinless electron under a driving force due to an applied temperature gradient. This equation is a eapite ad calcem,temperature. Elimination of the rate of change of velocity with respect to time leads to a non-Fourier heat conduction equation with a accumulation of temperature or ballistic term in it. The new constitutive heat conduction equation is combined with the energy balance equation in one dimension. The governing equation for transient temperature a partial differential equation （Eq. （23）） is solved for by the method of Laplace transforms. The problem considered is the semi-infinite medium with constant thermo physical properties with constant wall temperature boundary condition. A closed form analyticalexpression for the transient temperature was obtained （Eq. （36）） after truncation of higher order terms in the infinite binomial series and use of convolution and lag properties. This solution is compared with that obtained using the parabolic Fourier model and the damped wave model as presented in an earlier study. The predictions of Eq. （36） are closer to the Fourier model. The convex nature of the temperature curve is present.

About A New Complex Method of Climates Reconstruction and Forecasting of Climate Changes in the Future

This paper deals with a new integrated method of reconstruction and forecasting of climatic changes in future. The method is based on proxy data pollen-spore analysis method, 14C analysis method, nowadays meteorological data, and data about of solar activity expressed in numbers of W （Wolf）. Here we present the results of investigation of sediments of the 2nd Fomich River terrace, Taymyr Peninsula, Russia. The formation of the peat bog started 10500 ± 140 years BP and continued during the entire Holocene. The pollen analysis of the sediment samples of the 2nd Fomich River terrace and the analysis of surface samples from a larch forest, typical of this region, reveals two phytochrones： both climatically preconditioned--tundra phytochrone （I1-4） and forest phytochrone （Ⅱ1-4）. The techniques of reconstruction and forecasting of basic elements of climate are presented and discussed in details.

Short Term Wind Power Prediction Using Wavelet Transform and ARIMA

A sustainable production of electricity is essential for low carbon green growth in South Korea. Although wind energy is unlimited in potential, both intermittency and volatility should be tackled for smart grid integration in future. To cope with this, many works have been done for wind speed and power forecasting. It is shown that statistical techniques are useful for short-term forecasting of wind power. This paper presents a statistical wind speed forecasting. The wavelet decomposition is employed as a de-noising technique. An illustration will be given by real-world dataset. According to the result, the MAD （mean absolute deviation） is improved as much as 10%.