In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and consumption in Chin...In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger (EG) test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.展开更多
In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function (SPF) of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomi...In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function (SPF) of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomial (NB) regression models and three generalized negative binomial (GNB) regression models are built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness. The effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and predicting freeway basic segments is demonstrated. Among six models, the two models (one is the NB model and the other is the GNB model. ) which consider the interactive influence of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and length are more reasonable for predicting results. Furthermore, a comprehensive study is carried out to prove that when considering the interactive influence, the NB and GNB models have almost the same fitting performance in estimating the crashes, among which the GNB model is slightly better for prediction performance.展开更多
Through modifying the CPN model, a kind of multivariable fuzzy model is put forward, and the matching fuzzy multistep predictive control algorithm is deduced based on the model. The modified model works in a competiti...Through modifying the CPN model, a kind of multivariable fuzzy model is put forward, and the matching fuzzy multistep predictive control algorithm is deduced based on the model. The modified model works in a competitive output manner which results in its local representation property. While studying on line, only a few parameters need to be regulated. So the model has the merits of fast learning and on line self organizing modeling. The control algorithm is simple, adaptive and useful in multivariable and time delay systems. Applying the algorithm in a paper making system, simulation shows its good effect.展开更多
Deformation modulus is the important parameter in stability analysis of tunnels, dams and mining struc- tures. In this paper, two predictive models including Mamdani fuzzy system (MFS) and multivariable regression a...Deformation modulus is the important parameter in stability analysis of tunnels, dams and mining struc- tures. In this paper, two predictive models including Mamdani fuzzy system (MFS) and multivariable regression analysis (MVRA) were developed to predict deformation modulus based on data obtained from dilatometer tests carried out in Bakhtiary dam site and additional data collected from longwall coal mines. Models inputs were considered to be rock quality designation, overburden height, weathering, unconfined compressive strength, bedding inclination to core axis, joint roughness coefficient and fill thickness. To control the models performance, calculating indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), variance account for (VAF) and determination coefficient (R^2) were used. The MFS results show the significant prediction accuracy along with high performance compared to MVRA results. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of MFS results shows that the most and the least effective parameters on deformation modulus are weatherin~ and overburden height, respectively.展开更多
Estimating weak rock mass modulus has historically proven difficult although this mechanical property is an important input to many types of geotechnical analyses. An empirical database of weak rock mass modulus with ...Estimating weak rock mass modulus has historically proven difficult although this mechanical property is an important input to many types of geotechnical analyses. An empirical database of weak rock mass modulus with associated detailed geotechnical parameters was assembled from plate loading tests per- formed at underground mines in Nevada, the Bakhtiary Dam project, and Portugues Dam project. The database was used to assess the accuracy of published single-variate models and to develop a multivari- ate model for predicting in-situ weak rock mass modulus when limited geoteehnical data are available. Only two of the published models were adequate for predicting modulus of weak rock masses over lim- ited ranges of alteration intensities, and none of the models provided good estimates of modulus over a range of geotechnical properties. In light of this shortcoming, a multivariate model was developed from the weak rock mass modulus dataset, and the new model is exponential in form and has the following independent variables: (1) average block size or joint spacing, (2) field estimated rock strength, (3) dis- continuity roughness, and (4) discontinuity infilling hardness. The multivariate model provided better estimates of modulus for both hard-blocky rock masses and intensely-altered rock masses.展开更多
Background Increased red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). The objective of this study was to compare the differences in the predictive va...Background Increased red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). The objective of this study was to compare the differences in the predictive value of RDW in patients with HF due to different causes. Methods We retrospectively investigated 1,021 HF patients from October 2009 to December 2011 at Fuwai Hospital (Beijing, China). HF in these patients was caused by three diseases; coronary heart disease (CHD), dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and valvular heart disease (VHD). Patients were followed-up for 21 ~ 9 months. Results The RDW, mortality and survival duration were significantly different among the three groups. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative survival decreased significantly with increased RDW in patients with HF caused by CHD and DCM, but not in those with HF patients caused by VHD. In a multivariable model, RDW was identified as an independent predictor for the mortality of HF patients with CHD (P 〈 0.001, HR 1.315, 95% CI 1.122-1.543). The group with higher N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and higher RDW than median had the lowest cumulative survival in patients with HF due to CHD, but not in patients with HF due to DCM. Conclusions RDW is a prognostic indicator for patients with HF caused by CHD and DCM; thus, RDW adds important information to NT-proBNP in CHD caused HF patients.展开更多
Cellular Automata(CA) is widely used for the simulation of land use changes. This study applied a vector-based CA model to simulate land use change in order to minimize or eliminate the scale sensitivity in traditiona...Cellular Automata(CA) is widely used for the simulation of land use changes. This study applied a vector-based CA model to simulate land use change in order to minimize or eliminate the scale sensitivity in traditional raster-based CA model. The cells of vector-based CA model are presented according to the shapes and attributes of geographic entities, and the transition rules of vector-based CA model are improved by taking spatial variables of the study area into consideration. The vector-based CA model is applied to simulate land use changes in downtown of Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, China and its validation is confirmed by the methods of visual assessment and spatial accuracy. The simulation result of vector-based CA model reveals that nearly 75% of newly increased urban cells are located in the northwest and southwest parts of the study area from 2002 to 2007, which is in consistent with real land use map. In addition, the simulation results of the vector-based and raster-based CA models are compared to real land use data and their spatial accuracies are found to be 84.0% and 81.9%, respectively. In conclusion, results from this study indicate that the vector-based CA model is a practical and applicable method for the simulation of urbanization processes.展开更多
AIM:To investigate perception of natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery(NOTES)as a potential technique for appendectomy.METHODS:One hundred patients undergoing endoscopy and 100 physicians were given a questi...AIM:To investigate perception of natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery(NOTES)as a potential technique for appendectomy.METHODS:One hundred patients undergoing endoscopy and 100 physicians were given a questionnaire describing in detail the techniques of NOTES and laparoscopic appendectomy.They were asked about the reasons for their preference,choice of orifice,and extent of complication risk they were willing to accept.RESULTS:Fifty patients(50%)and only 21 physicians(21%)preferred NOTES(P<0.001).Patients had previously heard of NOTES less frequently(7%vs73%,P<0.001)and had undergone endoscopy more frequently(88%vs 36%,P<0.001)than physicians.Absence of hernia was the most common reason for NOTES preference in physicians(80%vs 44%,P= 0.003),whereas reduced pain was the most common reason in patients(66%vs 52%).Physicians were more likely to refuse NOTES as a novel and unsure technique(P<0.001)and having an increased risk of infection(P<0.001).The preferred access site in both groups was colon followed by stomach,with vagina being rarely preferred.In multivariable modeling,those with high-school education[odds ratio(OR):2.68,95% confidence interval(CI):1.23-5.83]and prior colonoscopy(OR:2.10,95%CI:1.05-4.19)were more likely to prefer NOTES over laparoscopic appendectomy.There was a steep decline in NOTES preference with increased rate of procedural complications.Male patients were more likely to consent to their wives vaginal NOTES appendectomy than male physicians(P=0.02).CONCLUSION:The preference of NOTES for appendectomy was greater in patients than physicians and was related to reduced pain and absence of hernia rather than lack of scarring.展开更多
A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal ...A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A "two-constraint selection" procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small data.Among all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the "representatives".Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are proposed.The final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and "two-constraint selection" procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.展开更多
Employing an ideal elasto-plastic model,the typically used strength reduction method reduced the strength of all soil elements of a slope.Therefore,this method was called the global strength reduction method(GSRM).How...Employing an ideal elasto-plastic model,the typically used strength reduction method reduced the strength of all soil elements of a slope.Therefore,this method was called the global strength reduction method(GSRM).However,the deformation field obtained by GSRM could not reflect the real deformation of a slope when the slope became unstable.For most slopes,failure occurs once the strength of some regional soil is sufficiently weakened; thus,the local strength reduction method(LSRM)was proposed to analyze slope stability.In contrast with GSRM,LSRM only reduces the strength of local soil,while the strength of other soil remains unchanged.Therefore,deformation by LSRM is more reasonable than that by GSRM.In addition,the accuracy of the slope's deformation depends on the constitutive model to a large degree,and the variable-modulus elasto-plastic model was thus adopted.This constitutive model was an improvement of the Duncan–Chang model,which modified soil's deformation modulus according to stress level,and it thus better reflected the plastic feature of soil.Most importantly,the parameters of the variable-modulus elasto-plastic model could be determined through in-situ tests,and parameters determination by plate loading test and pressuremeter test were introduced.Therefore,it is easy to put this model into practice.Finally,LSRM and the variable-modulus elasto-plastic model were used to analyze Egongdai ancient landslide.Safety factor,deformation field,and optimal reinforcement measures for Egongdai ancient landslide were obtained based on the proposed method.展开更多
The impact of the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation on the IAV of evapotranspiration is investigated with the Community Land Model (CLM3.0) and modified Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). Two sets of 50...The impact of the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation on the IAV of evapotranspiration is investigated with the Community Land Model (CLM3.0) and modified Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). Two sets of 50-year off-line simulations are used in this study. The simulations begin with the same initial surface-water and heat states and are driven by the same atmospheric forcing data. The vegetation exhibits interannual variability in one simulation but not in the other simulation. However, the climatological means for the vegetation are the same. The IAV of the 50-year annual total evapotranspiration and its three partitions (ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration) are analyzed. The global distribution of the evapotranspiration IAV and the statistics of evapotranspiration and its components in different ecosystems show that the IAV of ground evaporation is generally large in areas dominated by grass and deciduous trees, whereas the IAV of canopy evaporation and transpiration is large in areas dominated by bare soil and shrubs. For ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration, the changes in IAV are larger than the mean state over most grasslands and shrublands. The study of two sites with the same IAV in the leaf area index (LAI) shows that the component with the smaller contribution to the total evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the IAV of vegetation. The IAV of the three components of evapotranspiration increases with the IAV of the fractional coverage (FC) and the LAI. The ground evaporation IAV shows the greatest increase, whereas the canopy evaporation shows the smallest increase.展开更多
A new approach to variable relation parametric model for collaboration design based on the graphic modelon has been put forward. The paper gives a parametric description model of graphic modelon, and relating method f...A new approach to variable relation parametric model for collaboration design based on the graphic modelon has been put forward. The paper gives a parametric description model of graphic modelon, and relating method for different graphic modelon based on variable constraint. At the same time, with the aim of engineering application in the collaboration design, the autonmous constraint in modelon and relative constraint between two modelons are given. Finally, with the tool of variable and relation dbase, the solving method of variable relating and variable-driven among different graphic modelon in a part, and double-acting variable relating parametric method among different parts for collaboration are given.展开更多
Regarding excavation-damaged zone (EDZ) around underground opening as non-homogeneous rockmass with spatial deterioration effect on stuffiness and strength, a parametric model of EDZ using radius-displacement-depend...Regarding excavation-damaged zone (EDZ) around underground opening as non-homogeneous rockmass with spatial deterioration effect on stuffiness and strength, a parametric model of EDZ using radius-displacement-dependent deformation modulus (RDDM) was proposed. Considering the nonlinearity characteristic of deformation and locality otherness of surrounding rock, deterioration parameter field of deformation modulus of rockmass around opening was quantitatively calculated through a given function. Applicability for multi-cavern condition and parameter sensibility of the model was analyzed by numerical experiments using synthetic data. Furthermore, the model was applied to identify EDZ of underground caverns of Pubugou hydropower station by calculating deterioration parameter field. Based on the parametric analysis of spatial effect and geological investigation, it is recognized that large radial deformation of deep fractured rock at the spandrel position and insufficient supporting bolts mainly result in great deformation pressure to act on the shotcrete and cause partial crack and spalling. It is shown that deterioration parameter field along the longitudinal axis of main powerhouse is evidently non-homogeneous in space and distributes exponentially along the radius from the opening. The model provides a simple and convenient way to identify the EDZ in the working state for rapid construction feedback analysis and support optimization of underground cavem from quantitative point of view and also aids in interpreting monitoring displacements and estimating support requirements.展开更多
Availability of digital elevation models (DEMs) of a high quality is becoming more and more important in spatial studies. Standard methods for DEM creation use only intentionally acquired data sources. Two approache...Availability of digital elevation models (DEMs) of a high quality is becoming more and more important in spatial studies. Standard methods for DEM creation use only intentionally acquired data sources. Two approaches which employ various types of data sets for DEM production are proposed: (1) Method of weighted sum of different data sources with morphological enhancement that conflates any additional data sources to principal DEM, and (2) DEM updating methods of modeling absolute and relative temporal changes, considering landslides, earthquakes, quarries, watererosion, building and highway constructions, etc. Spatial modeling of environmental variables concerning both approaches for (a) quality control of data sources, considering regions, (b) pre-processing of data sources, and (c) processing of the final DEM, have been applied. The variables are called rate of karst, morphologic roughness (modeled from slope, profile curvature and elevation), characteristic features, rate of forestation, hydrological network, and rate of urbanization. Only the variables evidenced as significant were used in spatial modeling to generate homogeneous regions in spatial modeling a-c. The production process uses different regions to define high quality conflation of data sources to the final DEM. The methodology had been confirmed by case studies. The result is an overall high quality DEM with various well-known parameters.展开更多
The comprehensive nonlinear flow behaviors of a ductile alloy play a significant role in the numerical analysis of its forming process. The accurate characterization of as-forged Ti-13 Nb-13 Zr alloy was conducted by ...The comprehensive nonlinear flow behaviors of a ductile alloy play a significant role in the numerical analysis of its forming process. The accurate characterization of as-forged Ti-13 Nb-13 Zr alloy was conducted by an improved intelligent algorithm, GA-SVR, the combination of genetic algorithm(GA) and support vector regression(SVR). The GA-SVR model learns from a training dataset and then is verified by a test dataset. As for the generalization ability of the solved GA-SVR model, no matter in β phase temperature range or(α+β) phase temperature range, the correlation coefficient R-values are always larger than 0.9999, and the AARE-values are always lower than 0.18%. The solved GA-SVR model accurately tracks the highly-nonlinear flow behaviors of Ti-13 Nb-13 Zr alloy. The stress-strain data expanded by this model are input into finite element solver, and the computation accuracy is improved.展开更多
The conventional X-ray gray weighted image fusion method based on variable energy cannot characterize the phys- ical properties of complicated objects correctly, therefore, the gray correction method of X-ray fusion i...The conventional X-ray gray weighted image fusion method based on variable energy cannot characterize the phys- ical properties of complicated objects correctly, therefore, the gray correction method of X-ray fusion image based on neural network is proposed. The conventional method acquires 12 bit images on variable energy, and then fuses the images in a tra- ditional way. While the new method takes the fusion image as the input of neural network simulation system and takes the acquired 16 bit image as the output of neural network. The X-ray image physical characteristic model based on neural net- work is obtained through training. And then it takes steel ladder block as the test object to verify the feasibility of the mod- el. In the end, the gray curve of output image is compared with the gray curve of 16 bit real image. The experiment results show that this method can fit the nonlinear relationship between the fusion image and the real image, and also can expand the scope of application of low dynamic image acquisition equipment.展开更多
An energy model for the structure transformation of pile-ups of grain boundary dislocations(GBD)at the triple-junction of the grain boundary of ultrafine-grain materials was proposed.The energy of the pile-up of the G...An energy model for the structure transformation of pile-ups of grain boundary dislocations(GBD)at the triple-junction of the grain boundary of ultrafine-grain materials was proposed.The energy of the pile-up of the GBD in the system was calculated by the energy model,the critical geometric and mechanical conditions for the structure transformation of head dislocation of the pile-up were analyzed,and the influence of the number density of the dislocations and the angle between Burgers vectors of two decomposed dislocations on the transformation mode of head dislocation was discussed.The results show when the GBD is accumulated at triple junction,the head dislocation of the GBD is decomposed into two Burgers vectors of these dislocations unless the angle between the two vectors is less than 90°,and the increase of applied external stress can reduce the energy barrier of the dislocation decomposition.The mechanism that the ultrafine-grained metal material has both high strength and plasticity owing to the structure transformation of the pile-up of the GBD at the triple junction of the grain boundary is revealed.展开更多
In various environmental studies, geoscience variables not only have the characteristics of time and space, but also are influenced by other variables. Multivariate spatiotemporal variables can improve the accuracy of...In various environmental studies, geoscience variables not only have the characteristics of time and space, but also are influenced by other variables. Multivariate spatiotemporal variables can improve the accuracy of spatiotemporal estimation. Taking the monthly mean ground observation data of the period 1960–2013 precipitation in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, the spatiotemporal distribution from January to December in 2013 was respectively estimated by space-time Kriging and space-time CoKriging. Modeling spatiotemporal direct variograms and a cross variogram was a key step in space-time CoKriging. Taking the monthly mean air relative humidity of the same site at the same time as the covariates, the spatiotemporal direct variograms and the spatiotemporal cross variogram of the monthly mean precipitation for the period 1960–2013 were modeled. The experimental results show that the space-time CoKriging reduces the mean square error by 31.46% compared with the space-time ordinary Kriging. The correlation coefficient between the estimated values and the observed values of the space-time CoKriging is 5.07% higher than the one of the space-time ordinary Kriging. Therefore, a space-time CoKriging interpolation with air humidity as a covariate improves the interpolation accuracy.展开更多
文摘In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger (EG) test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51408229,51278202)the Program of the Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University(No.K201204)the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Communication Department(No.2013-02-068)
文摘In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function (SPF) of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomial (NB) regression models and three generalized negative binomial (GNB) regression models are built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness. The effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and predicting freeway basic segments is demonstrated. Among six models, the two models (one is the NB model and the other is the GNB model. ) which consider the interactive influence of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and length are more reasonable for predicting results. Furthermore, a comprehensive study is carried out to prove that when considering the interactive influence, the NB and GNB models have almost the same fitting performance in estimating the crashes, among which the GNB model is slightly better for prediction performance.
文摘Through modifying the CPN model, a kind of multivariable fuzzy model is put forward, and the matching fuzzy multistep predictive control algorithm is deduced based on the model. The modified model works in a competitive output manner which results in its local representation property. While studying on line, only a few parameters need to be regulated. So the model has the merits of fast learning and on line self organizing modeling. The control algorithm is simple, adaptive and useful in multivariable and time delay systems. Applying the algorithm in a paper making system, simulation shows its good effect.
文摘Deformation modulus is the important parameter in stability analysis of tunnels, dams and mining struc- tures. In this paper, two predictive models including Mamdani fuzzy system (MFS) and multivariable regression analysis (MVRA) were developed to predict deformation modulus based on data obtained from dilatometer tests carried out in Bakhtiary dam site and additional data collected from longwall coal mines. Models inputs were considered to be rock quality designation, overburden height, weathering, unconfined compressive strength, bedding inclination to core axis, joint roughness coefficient and fill thickness. To control the models performance, calculating indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), variance account for (VAF) and determination coefficient (R^2) were used. The MFS results show the significant prediction accuracy along with high performance compared to MVRA results. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of MFS results shows that the most and the least effective parameters on deformation modulus are weatherin~ and overburden height, respectively.
基金funded by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health through research contract 200-2011-39965(Principal Investigator Dr.Kallu)University of Nevada,Reno,NV
文摘Estimating weak rock mass modulus has historically proven difficult although this mechanical property is an important input to many types of geotechnical analyses. An empirical database of weak rock mass modulus with associated detailed geotechnical parameters was assembled from plate loading tests per- formed at underground mines in Nevada, the Bakhtiary Dam project, and Portugues Dam project. The database was used to assess the accuracy of published single-variate models and to develop a multivari- ate model for predicting in-situ weak rock mass modulus when limited geoteehnical data are available. Only two of the published models were adequate for predicting modulus of weak rock masses over lim- ited ranges of alteration intensities, and none of the models provided good estimates of modulus over a range of geotechnical properties. In light of this shortcoming, a multivariate model was developed from the weak rock mass modulus dataset, and the new model is exponential in form and has the following independent variables: (1) average block size or joint spacing, (2) field estimated rock strength, (3) dis- continuity roughness, and (4) discontinuity infilling hardness. The multivariate model provided better estimates of modulus for both hard-blocky rock masses and intensely-altered rock masses.
文摘Background Increased red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). The objective of this study was to compare the differences in the predictive value of RDW in patients with HF due to different causes. Methods We retrospectively investigated 1,021 HF patients from October 2009 to December 2011 at Fuwai Hospital (Beijing, China). HF in these patients was caused by three diseases; coronary heart disease (CHD), dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and valvular heart disease (VHD). Patients were followed-up for 21 ~ 9 months. Results The RDW, mortality and survival duration were significantly different among the three groups. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative survival decreased significantly with increased RDW in patients with HF caused by CHD and DCM, but not in those with HF patients caused by VHD. In a multivariable model, RDW was identified as an independent predictor for the mortality of HF patients with CHD (P 〈 0.001, HR 1.315, 95% CI 1.122-1.543). The group with higher N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and higher RDW than median had the lowest cumulative survival in patients with HF due to CHD, but not in patients with HF due to DCM. Conclusions RDW is a prognostic indicator for patients with HF caused by CHD and DCM; thus, RDW adds important information to NT-proBNP in CHD caused HF patients.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41101349)Surveying and Mapping Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Province(No.JSCHKY201304)+1 种基金Program of Natural Science Research of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China(No.13KJB420003)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘Cellular Automata(CA) is widely used for the simulation of land use changes. This study applied a vector-based CA model to simulate land use change in order to minimize or eliminate the scale sensitivity in traditional raster-based CA model. The cells of vector-based CA model are presented according to the shapes and attributes of geographic entities, and the transition rules of vector-based CA model are improved by taking spatial variables of the study area into consideration. The vector-based CA model is applied to simulate land use changes in downtown of Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, China and its validation is confirmed by the methods of visual assessment and spatial accuracy. The simulation result of vector-based CA model reveals that nearly 75% of newly increased urban cells are located in the northwest and southwest parts of the study area from 2002 to 2007, which is in consistent with real land use map. In addition, the simulation results of the vector-based and raster-based CA models are compared to real land use data and their spatial accuracies are found to be 84.0% and 81.9%, respectively. In conclusion, results from this study indicate that the vector-based CA model is a practical and applicable method for the simulation of urbanization processes.
基金Supported by Grant NT 11234-3 of the Czech Ministry of Healththe Institutional Research Plan AV0Z10300504
文摘AIM:To investigate perception of natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery(NOTES)as a potential technique for appendectomy.METHODS:One hundred patients undergoing endoscopy and 100 physicians were given a questionnaire describing in detail the techniques of NOTES and laparoscopic appendectomy.They were asked about the reasons for their preference,choice of orifice,and extent of complication risk they were willing to accept.RESULTS:Fifty patients(50%)and only 21 physicians(21%)preferred NOTES(P<0.001).Patients had previously heard of NOTES less frequently(7%vs73%,P<0.001)and had undergone endoscopy more frequently(88%vs 36%,P<0.001)than physicians.Absence of hernia was the most common reason for NOTES preference in physicians(80%vs 44%,P= 0.003),whereas reduced pain was the most common reason in patients(66%vs 52%).Physicians were more likely to refuse NOTES as a novel and unsure technique(P<0.001)and having an increased risk of infection(P<0.001).The preferred access site in both groups was colon followed by stomach,with vagina being rarely preferred.In multivariable modeling,those with high-school education[odds ratio(OR):2.68,95% confidence interval(CI):1.23-5.83]and prior colonoscopy(OR:2.10,95%CI:1.05-4.19)were more likely to prefer NOTES over laparoscopic appendectomy.There was a steep decline in NOTES preference with increased rate of procedural complications.Male patients were more likely to consent to their wives vaginal NOTES appendectomy than male physicians(P=0.02).CONCLUSION:The preference of NOTES for appendectomy was greater in patients than physicians and was related to reduced pain and absence of hernia rather than lack of scarring.
基金Project(50809058)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A knowledge-based network for Section Yidong Bridge,Dongyang River,one tributary of Qiantang River,Zhejiang Province,China,is established in order to model water quality in areas under small data.Then,based on normal transformation of variables with routine monitoring data and normal assumption of variables without routine monitoring data,a conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network is constructed.A "two-constraint selection" procedure is proposed to estimate potential parameter values under small data.Among all potential parameter values,the ones that are most probable are selected as the "representatives".Finally,the risks of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards are calculated and pollution reduction decisions for decision-making reference are proposed.The final results show that conditional linear Gaussian Bayesian network and "two-constraint selection" procedure are very useful in evaluating risks when there is limited data and can help managers to make sound decisions under small data.
基金Project([2005]205)supported by the Science and Technology Planning Project of Water Resources Department of Guangdong Province,ChinaProject(2012-7)supported by Guangdong Bureau of Highway Administration,ChinaProject(2012210020203)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘Employing an ideal elasto-plastic model,the typically used strength reduction method reduced the strength of all soil elements of a slope.Therefore,this method was called the global strength reduction method(GSRM).However,the deformation field obtained by GSRM could not reflect the real deformation of a slope when the slope became unstable.For most slopes,failure occurs once the strength of some regional soil is sufficiently weakened; thus,the local strength reduction method(LSRM)was proposed to analyze slope stability.In contrast with GSRM,LSRM only reduces the strength of local soil,while the strength of other soil remains unchanged.Therefore,deformation by LSRM is more reasonable than that by GSRM.In addition,the accuracy of the slope's deformation depends on the constitutive model to a large degree,and the variable-modulus elasto-plastic model was thus adopted.This constitutive model was an improvement of the Duncan–Chang model,which modified soil's deformation modulus according to stress level,and it thus better reflected the plastic feature of soil.Most importantly,the parameters of the variable-modulus elasto-plastic model could be determined through in-situ tests,and parameters determination by plate loading test and pressuremeter test were introduced.Therefore,it is easy to put this model into practice.Finally,LSRM and the variable-modulus elasto-plastic model were used to analyze Egongdai ancient landslide.Safety factor,deformation field,and optimal reinforcement measures for Egongdai ancient landslide were obtained based on the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2009CB421406)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, Grant No. 2009AA122100)
文摘The impact of the interannual variability (IAV) of vegetation on the IAV of evapotranspiration is investigated with the Community Land Model (CLM3.0) and modified Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). Two sets of 50-year off-line simulations are used in this study. The simulations begin with the same initial surface-water and heat states and are driven by the same atmospheric forcing data. The vegetation exhibits interannual variability in one simulation but not in the other simulation. However, the climatological means for the vegetation are the same. The IAV of the 50-year annual total evapotranspiration and its three partitions (ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration) are analyzed. The global distribution of the evapotranspiration IAV and the statistics of evapotranspiration and its components in different ecosystems show that the IAV of ground evaporation is generally large in areas dominated by grass and deciduous trees, whereas the IAV of canopy evaporation and transpiration is large in areas dominated by bare soil and shrubs. For ground evaporation, canopy evaporation, and transpiration, the changes in IAV are larger than the mean state over most grasslands and shrublands. The study of two sites with the same IAV in the leaf area index (LAI) shows that the component with the smaller contribution to the total evapotranspiration is more sensitive to the IAV of vegetation. The IAV of the three components of evapotranspiration increases with the IAV of the fractional coverage (FC) and the LAI. The ground evaporation IAV shows the greatest increase, whereas the canopy evaporation shows the smallest increase.
基金Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (No. 01042209)
文摘A new approach to variable relation parametric model for collaboration design based on the graphic modelon has been put forward. The paper gives a parametric description model of graphic modelon, and relating method for different graphic modelon based on variable constraint. At the same time, with the aim of engineering application in the collaboration design, the autonmous constraint in modelon and relative constraint between two modelons are given. Finally, with the tool of variable and relation dbase, the solving method of variable relating and variable-driven among different graphic modelon in a part, and double-acting variable relating parametric method among different parts for collaboration are given.
基金Project(2010CB732005) supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(51279136, 51209164) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Regarding excavation-damaged zone (EDZ) around underground opening as non-homogeneous rockmass with spatial deterioration effect on stuffiness and strength, a parametric model of EDZ using radius-displacement-dependent deformation modulus (RDDM) was proposed. Considering the nonlinearity characteristic of deformation and locality otherness of surrounding rock, deterioration parameter field of deformation modulus of rockmass around opening was quantitatively calculated through a given function. Applicability for multi-cavern condition and parameter sensibility of the model was analyzed by numerical experiments using synthetic data. Furthermore, the model was applied to identify EDZ of underground caverns of Pubugou hydropower station by calculating deterioration parameter field. Based on the parametric analysis of spatial effect and geological investigation, it is recognized that large radial deformation of deep fractured rock at the spandrel position and insufficient supporting bolts mainly result in great deformation pressure to act on the shotcrete and cause partial crack and spalling. It is shown that deterioration parameter field along the longitudinal axis of main powerhouse is evidently non-homogeneous in space and distributes exponentially along the radius from the opening. The model provides a simple and convenient way to identify the EDZ in the working state for rapid construction feedback analysis and support optimization of underground cavem from quantitative point of view and also aids in interpreting monitoring displacements and estimating support requirements.
文摘Availability of digital elevation models (DEMs) of a high quality is becoming more and more important in spatial studies. Standard methods for DEM creation use only intentionally acquired data sources. Two approaches which employ various types of data sets for DEM production are proposed: (1) Method of weighted sum of different data sources with morphological enhancement that conflates any additional data sources to principal DEM, and (2) DEM updating methods of modeling absolute and relative temporal changes, considering landslides, earthquakes, quarries, watererosion, building and highway constructions, etc. Spatial modeling of environmental variables concerning both approaches for (a) quality control of data sources, considering regions, (b) pre-processing of data sources, and (c) processing of the final DEM, have been applied. The variables are called rate of karst, morphologic roughness (modeled from slope, profile curvature and elevation), characteristic features, rate of forestation, hydrological network, and rate of urbanization. Only the variables evidenced as significant were used in spatial modeling to generate homogeneous regions in spatial modeling a-c. The production process uses different regions to define high quality conflation of data sources to the final DEM. The methodology had been confirmed by case studies. The result is an overall high quality DEM with various well-known parameters.
基金Project(cstc2018jcyjAX0459) supported by Chongqing Basic Research and Frontier Exploration Program,ChinaProjects(2019CDQYTM027,2019CDJGFCL003,2018CDPTCG0001-6,2019CDXYCL0031) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘The comprehensive nonlinear flow behaviors of a ductile alloy play a significant role in the numerical analysis of its forming process. The accurate characterization of as-forged Ti-13 Nb-13 Zr alloy was conducted by an improved intelligent algorithm, GA-SVR, the combination of genetic algorithm(GA) and support vector regression(SVR). The GA-SVR model learns from a training dataset and then is verified by a test dataset. As for the generalization ability of the solved GA-SVR model, no matter in β phase temperature range or(α+β) phase temperature range, the correlation coefficient R-values are always larger than 0.9999, and the AARE-values are always lower than 0.18%. The solved GA-SVR model accurately tracks the highly-nonlinear flow behaviors of Ti-13 Nb-13 Zr alloy. The stress-strain data expanded by this model are input into finite element solver, and the computation accuracy is improved.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61302159,61227003,61301259)Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province(No.2012021011-2)+2 种基金Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education,China(No.20121420110006)Top Science and Technology Innovation Teams of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi Province,ChinaProject Sponsored by Scientific Research for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,Shanxi Province(No.2013-083)
文摘The conventional X-ray gray weighted image fusion method based on variable energy cannot characterize the phys- ical properties of complicated objects correctly, therefore, the gray correction method of X-ray fusion image based on neural network is proposed. The conventional method acquires 12 bit images on variable energy, and then fuses the images in a tra- ditional way. While the new method takes the fusion image as the input of neural network simulation system and takes the acquired 16 bit image as the output of neural network. The X-ray image physical characteristic model based on neural net- work is obtained through training. And then it takes steel ladder block as the test object to verify the feasibility of the mod- el. In the end, the gray curve of output image is compared with the gray curve of 16 bit real image. The experiment results show that this method can fit the nonlinear relationship between the fusion image and the real image, and also can expand the scope of application of low dynamic image acquisition equipment.
基金financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51161003,51561031)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi,China(No.2018GXNSFAA138150)。
文摘An energy model for the structure transformation of pile-ups of grain boundary dislocations(GBD)at the triple-junction of the grain boundary of ultrafine-grain materials was proposed.The energy of the pile-up of the GBD in the system was calculated by the energy model,the critical geometric and mechanical conditions for the structure transformation of head dislocation of the pile-up were analyzed,and the influence of the number density of the dislocations and the angle between Burgers vectors of two decomposed dislocations on the transformation mode of head dislocation was discussed.The results show when the GBD is accumulated at triple junction,the head dislocation of the GBD is decomposed into two Burgers vectors of these dislocations unless the angle between the two vectors is less than 90°,and the increase of applied external stress can reduce the energy barrier of the dislocation decomposition.The mechanism that the ultrafine-grained metal material has both high strength and plasticity owing to the structure transformation of the pile-up of the GBD at the triple junction of the grain boundary is revealed.
基金Project(17D02)supported by the Open Fund of State Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying,Mapping and Remote Sensing,Wuhan University,ChinaProject supported by the State Key Laboratory of Satellite Navigation System and Equipment Technology,China
文摘In various environmental studies, geoscience variables not only have the characteristics of time and space, but also are influenced by other variables. Multivariate spatiotemporal variables can improve the accuracy of spatiotemporal estimation. Taking the monthly mean ground observation data of the period 1960–2013 precipitation in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, the spatiotemporal distribution from January to December in 2013 was respectively estimated by space-time Kriging and space-time CoKriging. Modeling spatiotemporal direct variograms and a cross variogram was a key step in space-time CoKriging. Taking the monthly mean air relative humidity of the same site at the same time as the covariates, the spatiotemporal direct variograms and the spatiotemporal cross variogram of the monthly mean precipitation for the period 1960–2013 were modeled. The experimental results show that the space-time CoKriging reduces the mean square error by 31.46% compared with the space-time ordinary Kriging. The correlation coefficient between the estimated values and the observed values of the space-time CoKriging is 5.07% higher than the one of the space-time ordinary Kriging. Therefore, a space-time CoKriging interpolation with air humidity as a covariate improves the interpolation accuracy.